Playing Break-Even

[sagefr0g]

What is the question you are really asking?

If you want to play a break even game I am guessing that you plan to make it up elsewhere like in comps. You spread say 1-3 or 1-4 on a 6 deck game you are about break even and you shouldn't get any heat. But then the question should be what do I have to bet to get the comps I want, and then can I afford to bet that amount.

If you could clarify what you want to know you might get a better answer.

By the way, this idea that a game with an expectation of zero suddenly becomes expectation of -1 because of bankroll size is ludicrous.

me i'd just have to apologize to sleighthand the original poster cause i kind of hijacked his original question. i'm not sure i understand exactly what he's asking.

for my part the reason his referring to a break even game is interesting is that i think a break even game is what i approach in my solo play (sort of like the first image in this post http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=131049&postcount=14 except i wong out a lot). now my wife comes along and wants to play with me. that makes my wonging prospects nil (cause she would just want to sit and play) and essentially has it like i'm in a play all approach to the game playing two hands. the situation raises my already high ror even higher. i probably could leave the table when the count hits say tc<=-1 while the wife sat and played bs. i guess that would help a little.
comps for us isn't really the big thing, we'd take what we can get, lol. thing is we just enjoy playing the game together, but me i don't want to lose any money doing it, lol. so i guess my question would be, is there a way the wife and i can sit and play the game and still break even.

 

[Pro21]

Sage,

How about if you sit out when the count goes negative and watch your wife play at the minimum. When it goes positive you play your hand and add some money on your wife's spot for luck. If your bankroll is really small you should definitely check out video poker. You will probably earn better comps that way.

 

[mathman]

Sage,
Pro21 has a good point. You know I play with a partner and we've done this many times. Have your wife play lower stakes while your "teaching" her the game. When the time is right have her bet more for you for "fun" Works for cover especially if your enjoying yourself and each others company while you're doing it. Have fun....JtMM
.

 

[sagefr0g]

Sage,

How about if you sit out when the count goes negative and watch your wife play at the minimum. When it goes positive you play your hand and add some money on your wife's spot for luck. If your bankroll is really small you should definitely check out video poker. You will probably earn better comps that way.

there ya go Pro.
i can take frequent potty breaks, sit out a bit, ect. and like mathman was saying be the wifes guhru sometimes forgetting to play my own hand, lol. then if it really stinks the wife and i can leave the table and do some video poker, come back to another table and repeat. lol, sounds like a plan.

edit: you know come to think of it, there have been plenty of times that i would have liked to went to two hands but was unable, but now i'll already be there and can poor on the coal when it's time.
come to think of it the wife can even take a potty break or two, lmao.

 

[Kasi]

I think the reason why playing a $0.00 Expectation game is that at some point in time you will hit a one in a million losing streak that will break your bankroll no matter how big it is. I might be a one in a million or one in a billion chance that you hit that losing streak but at some point if you play infinitely you will hit that streak. I think for a breakeven game you would have to calculate the odds of hitting that ridiculous losing streak. That is probably what you are looking for.

Well, I suppose you are right but take a coin flip for example. Maybe after 1,000,000 flips, you happen to be down 6 standard deviations which would be $3000 bucks (I think lol) betting $1 on each flip. I think being down 6 standard deviations means over a billion to 1 of happening. I think that means you could flip a coin 1000000 times 1 billion times. So after 1000000*1 billion flips once you have lost your $3000. If you're worried about that 1 million billion chance, start with 10000 units and you're good to go until at least the next Ice Age and probably until the sun burns out lol. Not to mention if you actually are 6 standard deviations down, it's probably not a fair coin anyway lol.

We can't play for "infinity". All we can do is have enough roll to withstand the next x trials with x roll for any liklihood one chooses to be comfortable with.

So it's quite possible one needs no where near an infinite roll to whether the storms of variance in our limited time on earth.

 

[blackjack avenger]

High Variance

I would think the very high variance means one would need their full bank to have the ror one is striving for.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Break Even Beat Down

About half of the time one would be down money.

 

[Kasi]

Kolan,

The R.O.R. for Oscar's Grind is 100%.

In a break-even game coin-flip game?

Really, just asking lol.

I suppose, just like any betting system, it is 100% if we could play forever maybe.

Since we can't, but since the ROR is 100%, can I come to your house for 100,000 coin flips with a 2000 unit roll and if I lose my 2000 units in 100,000 flips I pay you $50,000. If I don't, you only have to pay me $10,000. Bring 9 friends to flip too so we can get it over with quickly.

Offering 5-1 with a 100% ROR. With flat-betting. Chance of a lifetime.

Oscar would be a little different than flat-betting but also completely doable lol.

 

[FLASH1296]

You stated: "it is 100% if we could play forever maybe.

Without a predetermined goal, R.O.R. is normally taken to be the % probability of doubling your bankroll before losing your entire bankroll.

Time is not a variable.

A simple progression such as "Oscar's Grind" is clearly ruinous if one attempts to "earn" profits equal to your original bankroll.

If your goal is to win an amount = 1% of your bankroll, your R.O.R. in exceedingly low.

You said: "In a break-even game coin-flip game?"

BJ - with an average win probability of 43% (discounting "pushes") - is not a "coin-flip"

 

[FLASH1296]

Correction to data above.

Player wins 43.2%, loses 47.9% and pushes 8.9%

So for the sake of simplicity, one might say:

W 43% L 48% P 9%

 

[Kasi]

You stated: "it is 100% if we could play forever maybe.

Yes I did. OK - it would be 100% if we could actually play a billion hands a second for a billion billion years and then, of course, more hands than that.

But we can't can we?

Without a predetermined goal, R.O.R. is normally taken to be the % probability of doubling your bankroll before losing your entire bankroll.

Even doubling before losing all assumes one can play forever before either one happens.

Chances of doubling before losing all are not even close to a "lifetime" ROR, are they?

Time is not a variable.

Of course it is. But, since it's not, can I still come to your house and it will matter not that I flip only 100,000 times?

A simple progression such as "Oscar's Grind" is clearly ruinous if one attempts to "earn" profits equal to your original bankroll

Not if one only flips once. Oh, I forgot time is not a factor. Are we still on?

BJ - with an average win probability of 42.9% (discounting "pushes") - is not remotely a "coin-flip"

42% includes pushes.

If you don't like coin-flip, can I still come and play BJ?

I can deal with that. After you specify number of hands, which shouldn't matter in the least since time is not a variable, specify a goal too if you want, let me specify units. Even though time doesn't matter, could we just maybe keep it to a max of 1,000,000 trials or so anyway?

My specified goal was only to not lose all my roll in x trials in a simple coin-flip game either flat-betting or with Oscar, if you want.

Just trying to keep it simple for you. If you want to throw in doubling before halving, tripling before losing one-fourth, it's all good. Regretably, I just don't see a way around of specifying a maximum number of trials ahead of time. I'm already old and time, in his winged chariot, is flying near.

 

[FLASH1296]

You said: "42% includes pushes."

Sorry to tell you but it is > 52%

 

[itrack]

I think the reason why playing a $0.00 Expectation game is that at some point in time you will hit a one in a million losing streak that will break your bankroll no matter how big it is. I might be a one in a million or one in a billion chance that you hit that losing streak but at some point if you play infinitely you will hit that streak. I think for a breakeven game you would have to calculate the odds of hitting that ridiculous losing streak. That is probably what you are looking for.

I'm thinkin of a way similar to this. First figure out the chances of losing X hands in a row, X being the amount of hands you want to play total. This would obviously be the worst case scenario. Then find the probability in winning every 1 out of 5 hands or something along those lines. See how much that puts you in the hole, and see if your ok with both the percentage of this actually happening to you, and the money being lost. Just keep changing the betting amount and the amount of hands you win until you are happy with it. Also, always use your max bet of your spread, just to be safe.

 

[EasyRhino]

If you have a million dollars, and are playing a $1 coin flip, the infinite ROR is still 100%, in case you get the one in a brazillian losing streak.

But your ROR for a bankroll target, or just for a fixed number of hands, is much less.

And if you're still trying to come ahead in comps, then you need to look at it more like a video poker player. Play a tight, but still losing, game, and plan for comp value to exceed it. It's a really rought tightrope to walk, especially since the variance is nigher in VP.

But as for playing a game which is TRULY break even, after taking into account all externalities like comps and travel expense... what's the point?

 

[Pro21]

The point is there are cash comps, like airfare, fight tickets, etc.

 

[Pelerus]

in case you get the one in a brazillian losing streak

I actually had a one in a Brazilian losing streak one night. See, I was down in Rio and went to the red light district and...

Oh, nevermind. :grin:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Long Run to Oblivion

What does it matter if we play many hands or not when in a break even game we will be down about half the time?:joker: