Poker +EV?

[fwb]

It's easy to take a game like blackjack and calculate accurate winrates and standard dev. But how about poker? The only statistics I've learned about poker are preflop strength and pot odds, but how about the big picture? If I'm thinking about it correctly, all you have to do is play better than 50% of your opponents to turn a profit in the long run (maybe a little better to overcome rake). Is this correct? I read somewhere that std dev in poker can fall around 50 times your winrate. Ouch, and I thought blackjack variance was painful.

I know it gets complicated with the human opponent factor in there...

 

[shadroch]

I play very little live poker, but am pretty sure your thinking is off. Playing better than 50% of the table means nothing if one or two players dominates the rest. Take the total winnings, divide it by the number of players and be above that number, and you should be okay.

 

[Thunder]

Sharoch is correct. You can be better than 80% of the players there but if the head honcho dominates you in heads up play or you have one hand with him where you go all in, then you're screwed. They key is to play hard against the players you know u can beat but be very careful against the good ones.

 

[Nynefingers]

And it does take a significant amount of play to determine your winrate with any degree of accuracy. The usual number that everyone likes to quote is 10000 hands. That's a good minimum, but even after 10000 hands, variance is still significant and your calculated winrate will not be too precise.

 

[MartyAce]

I suggest reading some books about the subject. I don't think you can really quantify poker as being able to 'play better' then 80% of the table, etc.

I'm a member, as well as a few other people here of http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/. You'll find for the most part (except the strategy forums), the place worthless and full of broke people who post criticism of others.

However, you will find a few good pieces of literature there that may help you.

 

[moo321]

I play very little live poker, but am pretty sure your thinking is off. Playing better than 50% of the table means nothing if one or two players dominates the rest. Take the total winnings, divide it by the number of players and be above that number, and you should be okay.

You can still win if you're not the best player on the table. You just need a bunch of donks.