Portend the end?

[aslan]

Made a quick trip to Atlantic City. They really have counting down to a fine science, if you ask me. It seems like the only chance you have is when certain dealers elect to give a little better pen than they have been instructed to. And even those dealers who do allow a little better pen do not always do it--yes, even with them, they might do one or two good shoes, and back to 65% on the the next. Maybe they are being watched too closely, or maybe they are just not motivated enough to worry about cutting good pen each and every deal.

In my opinion, in Atlantic City there is no heat on the casinos to give counters even a slight chance to beat them. We are reduced, it seems, not to fluctuating policies about pen, but to the only variable casinos can't control absolutely, dealer obedience.

I have been during the week, late at night, early in the morning, weekends, you name it, and the rules seem to be the same: cut two decks from a six-deck shoe; cut more if big money is playing.

The "house" dealers never seem to deviate from the two-deck rule. These are the dealers who typically try to always please their bosses--fast dealers, no mistakes, all business.

Dealers, even those who don't have a clue about counting, I think, know that more pen is critical to anyone winning, counters and non-counters alike. They pick this up because the house is always pressing them to observe the "house-policy" pen.

Some dealers, from my experience, give decent pen just out of a general sense of fairness to the customer. Other dealers, who are well educated about counting, also give decent pen, as they are, or have been, card counters during their off time. But when they sense the house is watching them closely, I'm sure that most comply with the house policy, unless of course they don't value their jobs that highly.

I sense overall from my experience that I have a decent chance for profits if I meticulously stick to good dealers, but will do no more than break even if I let them mix it up on me; i.e., one dealer gives good pen, the next gives poor pen, etc. Above all, I avoid the lousy pen dealers; they're the ones who consistently cut two and a quarter to two and a half decks per shoe. Beat them and you're one lucky sucker.

I yearn for each chance to visit Las Vegas or Reno where for whatever reason you can still find a better game. Maybe the difference is that in AC they can't really bar you so they feel a more intense need to limit your chances right out of the gate. This would explain the total absence of double deck, for example, or that the only single deck games pay 6-5 for a natural.

I know a lot of you will disagree with my assessment of AC, but it is true to my experience from many trips there since June 2007. Yes, you can find good games, but I insist that pen is not consistently good anywhere, at least anywhere I've been, and varies from dealer to dealer. If this is truly the case in AC, does it portend a widespread trend everywhere and possibly the end of blackjack as an advantage play? :dog:

PS--I lost $40 on BJ, lost $200 on VP, and my wife netted $237 on a 2-cent slot machine where she tells me she was able to line up five "doggies" in a row, but didn't realize she was betting $2 worth of pennies at the time (way out of her ballpark). Go figure! :dog:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...
Dealers, even those who don't have a clue about counting, I think, know that more pen is critical to anyone winning, counters and non-counters alike. They pick this up because the house is always pressing them to observe the "house-policy" pen. ...

No, bad pen hurts the casino and causes a non-counter to lose less, because they are playing fewer hands per hour. It's a very foolish mistake on the part of the casinos, but someone has sold them on it.

You have to backcount in AC. If you think a dealer is short-cutting you, he can't easily do that if you're not at the table when he inserts the cut card. Backcounting minimizes the effects of bad pen and it's the only way to play AC that isn't a waste of time.

 

[aslan]

No, bad pen hurts the casino and causes a non-counter to lose less, because they are playing fewer hands per hour. It's a very foolish mistake on the part of the casinos, but someone has sold them on it.

You have to backcount in AC. If you think a dealer is short-cutting you, he can't easily do that if you're not at the table when he inserts the cut card. Backcounting minimizes the effects of bad pen and it's the only way to play AC that isn't a waste of time.

Two comments. One, with the automatic shuffle machines, little if anything is lost with the slightly more frequent shoes. Two, The casinos are getting quite adept at keeping just enough tables running to keep them full and virtually free from backcounting opportunities. Occasionally, I run into a situation where there is the opportunity to backcount, but not often; then of course there are rules against midshoe entry at tables $25 and above at two thirds of the places I play. The window of opportunity is slowly closing....

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Two comments. One, with the automatic shuffle machines, little if anything is lost with the slightly more frequent shoes. Two, The casinos are getting quite adept at keeping just enough tables running to keep them full and virtually free from backcounting opportunities. Occasionally, I run into a situation where there is the opportunity to backcount, but not often; then of course there are rules against midshoe entry at tables $25 and above at two thirds of the places I play. The window of opportunity is slowly closing....

Sounds to me like you were parking yourself in a chair at the Borgata again and hoping for a good count. That's a recipe for a bad session. You need to get out there and hunt down those good counts like a rapist stalks his victim. Standing in the background, passing up one victim for a better one, looking harmless, until you see an opportunity then you strike like a venomous snake, shoving your big stack of chips into that open position until you've had your fun. Then you walk away smiling, with no regrets, and maybe go to the store next door to see who's home and walking around in her sheer nightgown with a window unlocked.

Can the analogy be any more graphic? Naked aggression is the key to playing these lousy games successfully. AC does like to manage their tables full but there are always open seats on the Boardwalk and you have to keep moving to find them so you can give them the in-and-out. Just visualize a shoe at the Taj Mahal as one of the waitresses at the Borgata. :devil:

 

[21forme]

Two, The casinos are getting quite adept at keeping just enough tables running to keep them full and virtually free from backcounting opportunities. Occasionally, I run into a situation where there is the opportunity to backcount, but not often; then of course there are rules against midshoe entry at tables $25 and above at two thirds of the places I play. The window of opportunity is slowly closing....

You're going to the wrong places. I was in AC yesterday and went to 2 places that had many empty tables with dealers twiddling their thumbs. One of these places had surprisingly good pen.

 

[aslan]

This last trip probably had to do with the fact that I was their on a Friday as that was when my wife wanted to go. But I have had the same experience during the week and on the boardwalk, including Taj (which is eight-deck only) and other places with six-deck. Of course at Taj there's no mid-shoe entry, at least not on the $25 tables for sure. I despise eight-deck because you have to backcount for so long and then you may only get a round or two, if any, unless the tables are sparsely inhabited. Glad you found it to your liking, but that has not been my experience for the most part. And the pen at Taj in my experience has also been a function of the dealer, not house policy. I did have the fun of beating a Taj dealer who was only cutting one deck out of eight, but thought his super speed dealing would dominate even the best. He played with disdain for the player, but was singing another tune when I walked away with a fistful of dollars, and I'm by no stretch of the imagination the best. However, for the most part I have not liked the pen at the Taj.

We've talked before, but I still believe the games in AC are designed to be disadvantageous to the counter, and when not, it's because of the dealer and not the house.

 

[aslan]

Sounds to me like you were parking yourself in a chair at the Borgata again and hoping for a good count. That's a recipe for a bad session. You need to get out there and hunt down those good counts like a rapist stalks his victim. Standing in the background, passing up one victim for a better one, looking harmless, until you see an opportunity then you strike like a venomous snake, shoving your big stack of chips into that open position until you've had your fun. Then you walk away smiling, with no regrets, and maybe go to the store next door to see who's home and walking around in her sheer nightgown with a window unlocked.

Can the analogy be any more graphic? Naked aggression is the key to playing these lousy games successfully. AC does like to manage their tables full but there are always open seats on the Boardwalk and you have to keep moving to find them so you can give them the in-and-out. Just visualize a shoe at the Taj Mahal as one of the waitresses at the Borgata. :devil:

So your suggestion is to backcount eight-deck games, which is mostly all you have on the boardwalk? I might try your formula some day, but I sure do hate all that walking in search of good pen and then counting for what seems forever to find a good count in an eight deck game.

Admittedly, my strategy sometimes has been to find good pen and sit it out wonging out occasionally. If a dealer comes in who cuts poor pen, I get out. Using you strategy in AC, I feel I need to be betting a whole lot to justify all that walking and waiting. Aren't we talking major BR?

 

[Doofus]

So your suggestion is to backcount eight-deck games, which is mostly all you have on the boardwalk? I might try your formula some day, but I sure do hate all that walking in search of good pen and then counting for what seems forever to find a good count in an eight deck game.

My suggestion is to go down to Dulles Airport, get on an airplane, and in 6 hours you will be playing DD in Vegas. Only 3 hours further than driving to AC and somebody else takes the wheel. With gas prices and tolls what they are, getting there probably costs about the same, too.

 

[Knox]

My suggestion is to go down to Dulles Airport, get on an airplane, and in 6 hours you will be playing DD in Vegas. Only 3 hours further than driving to AC and somebody else takes the wheel. With gas prices and tolls what they are, getting there probably costs about the same, too.

Or go to MS, plenty of great DD games there and much closer for a noreaster.

 

[Doofus]

Or go to MS, plenty of great DD games there and much closer for a noreaster.

No non-stops from DC; the closest place to fly non-stop into is New Orleans. By the time you change planes or drive from MSY, it's just as long a trip to go to Biloxi from DC as it is to go LV. Of course, Biloxi is also a good game option, just not so big a pond as LV.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

So your suggestion is to backcount eight-deck games, which is mostly all you have on the boardwalk? I might try your formula some day, but I sure do hate all that walking in search of good pen and then counting for what seems forever to find a good count in an eight deck game.

You're fretting over the difference between 6D and 8D. It's silly. Such fretting is not supported by the mathematics of blackjack. While it's true you will see good counts slightly more often in a 6D game, they will last longer in an 8D game, and the difference is insignificant, especially when you are backcounting shoes with weak pen.

Admittedly, my strategy sometimes has been to find good pen and sit it out wonging out occasionally. If a dealer comes in who cuts poor pen, I get out. Using you strategy in AC, I feel I need to be betting a whole lot to justify all that walking and waiting. Aren't we talking major BR?

No, you need a bigger BR to play all or Wong out. When backcounting you need never play a -EV hand. When you sit down at a new shoe, the first few hands you play at least are simply a donation to the casino and they hurt your bankroll.

It's true that backcounting is strenuous, not easy to relax and enjoy, it gets the money. In my case I'm not there to have a good time, I'm there to non-consensually transfer money from the casino to myself. Everybody has their own goals when playing, can't tell you what do to but if maximum money is your goal, camping out at a table at the Borgata is not the way to do it.

 

[21forme]

You're fretting over the difference between 6D and 8D. It's silly. Such fretting is not supported by the mathematics of blackjack. While it's true you will see good counts slightly more often in a 6D game, they will last longer in an 8D game, and the difference is insignificant, especially when you are backcounting shoes with weak pen.

I have this discussion frequently with a friend of mine who plays mostly 8D AC games. He has no qualms about just camping out at a table and sitting out the negative counts (though it drives the Asian ploppies crazy the way he jumps in and out.)

I once ran the numbers for him, and there IS a 10-20% (depending on pen) greater EV backcounting 6D vs 8D games. The 6D shoes do go positive more often.

 

[Bojack1]

While I agree that playing all in A.C. is not a very good idea, I will say playing at the Borgata is not a bad one. You are able to backcount and wong in and out there in at least 50 different tables in at least 4 totally separate pits. There are times when there a few less tables, as well as times when there are a few more. Basically its not a bad place to play as far as A.C goes, but I still agree sitting there playing all is not the way to do it. Of course there are other casinos there that are playable as well, some for reasons other than just counting along with counting. Bottomline here is, if you want to play with the best potential to make money, sitting around waiting for it is not going to cut it. Just don't think you need to avoid the Borgata either. I don't love playing in A.C., but as long as you are willing to put the work in, it can still be profitable, and has been for us for years.

 

[aslan]

My suggestion is to go down to Dulles Airport, get on an airplane, and in 6 hours you will be playing DD in Vegas. Only 3 hours further than driving to AC and somebody else takes the wheel. With gas prices and tolls what they are, getting there probably costs about the same, too.

No disagreement there. I'm going on the 20th for nine days. I'll have to work on getting free rooms like I get at AC. Right now I'm only good for two nights at planet hollywood and one night at the Venetian, but that will come with time. This trip I'm staying two nights at ph and seven nights in a timeshare. It's a sad day when you have to fly 2,500 miles for what could be 200 miles away. But another fellow online here has come to the same conclusion, BJ Bob likes the flight to Nevada over the short jaunt to AC.

 

[aslan]

^I am coming around to AM's way of thinking. Granted, backcounting with an in/out strike is not as exciting or as social as sitting at a table with others who are having some fun, but it's a lot better than sitting at a table having your head handed to you when the count goes negative.

One can always wong out when the count goes negative.

I was thinking that it would take a larger BR backcounting, because when you enter the game you're always firing large to max bets. If you do encounter negative variance, you are subject to losing a bundle. But it's starting to sink in what AM is saying, since in any case you will be firing large bets when the going gets good, why risk BR when the counts are negative.

Somdbody please PM me where the best places to backcount in Vegas are. I know the places I've been going are good DD games but it's hard to backcount, if even allowed. Is downtown better for backcounting than the strip? How about suburban places like Sam's Town, Red Rock and Arizona Charlie's? I didn't like the Station Casinos; they seem to sweat the $5 games.

BTW, thanks for the patient advice AM. New guys get stuck in these senseless ruts.

 

[aslan]

You are able to backcount and wong in and out there in at least 50 different tables in at least 4 totally separate pits.

I've never been allowed to wong in on any of the $25. I'm not sure about $15tables but they usually don't have many such unless it is crowded and then it is nearly impossible to backcount and get a seat when you want it. What has you experience been?

 

[Kasi]

You're fretting over the difference between 6D and 8D. It's silly. Such fretting is not supported by the mathematics of blackjack. While it's true you will see good counts slightly more often in a 6D game, they will last longer in an 8D game, and the difference is insignificant, especially when you are backcounting shoes with weak pen.

I find the differences quite significant - how else do you explain a ~50% higher win rate for 6D vs 8D with same H17 DAS crappy rules with the same spread, same %age pen, same ROR and same bankroll basically across the board whether playing-all or BC'ing? Of course unit size may vary.

No, you need a bigger BR to play all or Wong out. When backcounting you need never play a -EV hand.

All you really have to do is accept a lower win rate to play with same roll and same ROR for play-all vs back-counting. And a different variance of course.

Anyway, my main question is, to anyone, can one actually find a mid-shoe entry game with a greater than $25 limit in AC? Aslan seems to say $25 min tables prohibit mid-shoe entry? Is that always true? Generally true? In which case, what's wrong with wonging in at a $5 table with a big bet since you can? Surely, you're not going to wong-in while back-counting with a bet less than $25 anyway? In which case, what's wrong with Borgata? How else would one do it? Are you saying your spread back-counting needs the table max at a $25-min table but, if so, what's the point if mid-shoe entry is prohibited?

Don't feel bad Aslan - regardless of just about whatever, I pretty much reached the same conclusion as you along time ago. But I guess it might depend how much one plays and one's goals. For me, I could give a rat's ass if I make 20-$40/hr playing 20-40 hours a year, what with the variance and all, lol. Might be different if I lived next door lol.

How do you guys that do it, do it anyway?

My hat's off to you.

 

[21forme]

I've never been allowed to wong in on any of the $25. I'm not sure about $15tables but they usually don't have many such unless it is crowded and then it is nearly impossible to backcount and get a seat when you want it. What has you experience been?

The pit you first see, right in front of you, as you walk down the retail hall from the parking garage is usually $25 min and all backcountable. Only during slow times do they reduce it to $15 min. Even so, the table max is $1000, whether $15 or $25 min, so what's the difference? The pit just beyond that is the one that's always NMS, with $25/$3000 limits (and sometimes $50 or $100 mins during busy times.)

 

[EasyRhino]

Somdbody please PM me where the best places to backcount in Vegas are.

Places with lots of tables running shoe games.

 

[aslan]

The pit you first see, right in front of you, as you walk down the retail hall from the parking garage is usually $25 min and all backcountable. Only during slow times do they reduce it to $15 min. Even so, the table max is $1000, whether $15 or $25 min, so what's the difference? The pit just beyond that is the one that's always NMS, with $25/$3000 limits (and sometimes $50 or $100 mins during busy times.)

They must change it back and forth, because I was playing before Christmas and they would not let anyone enter my games until there was a new shoe. That was right out of the shopping area and one of the tables was the first one you encounter, $25 limit. It was the same for all of the tables I played at. Go figure!?