Predicting Roulette??

[Sonny]

what do u mean? are u saying im over or under exaggerating/right/wrong

Over exaggerating once again. Saying things like “Roulette can’t be beat” and “There’s no more +EV VP anywhere” are what is holding you back from being an AP. If a 5.26% advantage is impossible to beat, how do you think people beat the 10% vig on sports betting? How do people beat the 3.37% house edge at Three Card Poker, or the 24% house edge at Big 6? The house edge usually has nothing to do with the ability to beat a game. It’s all about beating the cards/wheel/dealer, not the game. Being an AP is all about finding ways to beat the games that seem impossible to win, like 6:5 BJ and CSMs.

You can’t just automatically dismiss something because it doesn’t make sense to you. You have to sit down and think about it first. Sometimes you have to do a little math too. Maybe do a little research too before you say that something is impossible. It took RJT about one minute to show you how roulette can mathematically be beaten. It’s just a simple EV calculation of a biased wheel that shows over a 2% advantage. That’s much bigger than most card counters would ever expect. Imagine what kind of advantage you could have if you had a more accurate prediction and could narrow the outcome down to 8 numbers instead of 35!

Don’t be so quick to judge.

-Sonny-

 

[moo321]

No one addressed my comment. Why don't you guys try this stuff in Europe, where the house edge is 1/4 what it is here?

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Over exaggerating once again. Saying things like “Roulette can’t be beat” and “There’s no more +EV VP anywhere” are what is holding you back from being an AP. If a 5.26% advantage is impossible to beat, how do you think people beat the 10% vig on sports betting? How do people beat the 3.37% house edge at Three Card Poker, or the 24% house edge at Big 6? The house edge usually has nothing to do with the ability to beat a game. It’s all about beating the cards/wheel/dealer, not the game. Being an AP is all about finding ways to beat the games that seem impossible to win, like 6:5 BJ and CSMs.

You can’t just automatically dismiss something because it doesn’t make sense to you. You have to sit down and think about it first. Sometimes you have to do a little math too. Maybe do a little research too before you say that something is impossible. It took RJT about one minute to show you how roulette can mathematically be beaten. It’s just a simple EV calculation of a biased wheel that shows over a 2% advantage. That’s much bigger than most card counters would ever expect. Imagine what kind of advantage you could have if you had a more accurate prediction and could narrow the outcome down to 8 numbers instead of 35!

Don’t be so quick to judge.

-Sonny-

i dont know who you take me as, or who you think of yourself as, but it appears you would like to get a tattoo that says "im a real AP" and you would like a certificate saying "official AP".. i could say how i think im an AP, but i dont think of it like that, its not always a simple yes/no.. i am playing at an advantage at bj, but i dont care what label i have, i really dont.. somebody could tell you that because you are spreading 1-8 instead of 1-10 your not a true ap, and another could say that they are an ap just because they lowered the house edge, its all relative, and it seems to me that a lot of people on here that use that term are basically saying "i am smarter than you, and love pointing that out all the time"..

i have told you before, when i say NEVER or ALWAYS i dont mean it 100%.. for instance, if i said, sonny, you will NEVER become president, cant you figure out what i mean by that? you do realize that a lot of people on this forum arent too bright and that if one of us says "oh ya, roulette can easily be beat" or something to that tune, that others will do stupid crap like watch the wheel for 5 minutes and think "i found a bias", i am exaggerating purposely to basically say that it takes insane skill and patience to beat roulette, or to video +ev vp, well, not skill for the vp, but its just super rare, and if im wrong, then so are the authors of the 7 or so vp books i read, and those were from 2-10 years ago! you know how casinos have cracked down on vp now (or mabye you dont, along with the other dude who claimed that +ev vp is abundant).. so i have about 7 books, and 7 casinos worth of evidence that +ev vp is rare, as not 1 machine in chicagoland is +ev, i checked extensively, and obviously we arent counting progressives, most of which have crappy pay tables anyways..

yes, i admit i will quickly say something, and then look back and say wait a minute, i was wrong about that, but you guys take stuff way too literally.. if i say "you wont find 2:1 blackjack" i am simply saying to the people on here who dont know much, that dont drive all over the damn place thinking you have a 40% chance of finding one or something, thats all.. sonny, i think your smart and i listen to what you say, but sometimes you totally dont get me..

you seriously think that i think that the house edge is how i base if you can beat it or not? thats stupid.. you cant beat a slot with a 1% house edge, yet you could beat a texas holdem game even if the house took 15% of all bets.. i believe i have said a lot of smart things on here (and a lot of dumb ones too), and for you to think that i believe something ploppyish is foolish

notice how a lot of times i say "i am guessing here", "about", "around", "probably", etc.. when have i ever said "i am right, i am 100% sure, there is no way i can be proved wrong, i did no math on this but i am the smartest person ever"? also, a lot of times i am expecting to be proved wrong.. i like it when i say "thats not really possible" and somebody says "actually.." (altho most of the time they are being technical)

 

[Sonny]

No one addressed my comment. Why don't you guys try this stuff in Europe, where the house edge is 1/4 what it is here?

When you're dealing with such big advantages as this, the house edge almost doesn't matter. As I said, you're beating the wheel not the game. The difference between beating a wheel with 38 slots and one with 37 slots is often insignificant.

-Sonny-

 

[RJT]

When you're dealing with such big advantages as this, the house edge almost doesn't matter. As I said, you're beating the wheel not the game. The difference between beating a wheel with 38 slots and one with 37 slots is often insignificant.

-Sonny-

Lol, now now Sonny. This is far from insignificant. If you could - as you mentioned before - predict that the ball was going to land on one of only 8 numbers you'd have a situation where you'd win 1 extra unit per 8 spins. Assuming an average of 40 spins an hour that's 5 units extra an hour and even with a $50 a nice $250 extra win.
These are figures that a counter would start selling body parts to get at, but will never happen in the field of blackjack without cheating. In terms of roulette it may not seem to make much of a % difference to your ultimate win as your advantage is so huge, but to us regular non wheel tracking folkells, used to scrapping round on the tables for and extra couple of 10ths of a % advantage, that there's a meaty prize.

RJT.

 

[aslan]

I have to agree with Sonny. Look at the published cases of beating the wheel. The wins are enormous, in the hundreds of thousands and millions. It's not a matter of grinding out a 1% edge. If you can visually predict a reasonably small range for the ball to fall in, or better yet, spot a wheel bias, you won't be worried about whether a wheel has one or two green slots.

 

[toastblows]

There was a show on a guy from Spain who was a computer programmer...anyway, apparently in the casino he went to in Spain you could right down the numbers of the results....what harm could be done, the casino even left scratch pads by the wheel if i recall.

Anyway he and his kids and kids/spouses all tracked thousands of spins at this casino and entered it into a probability program he wrote....until he got a standard deviation of what sectors on what wheels were bias....and then they took them for millions...because no wheel is 100% flawless, its a phyiscal piece of wood floating on a bearing that has to wear at some time....They even had a favorite wheel, and the casino in attempts to stop them just moved the wheel to a different pit, but it took them all of 10 minutes to figure out where it went. :laugh: So yes, if you deal with a real wheel, it will have a bias you can exploit...just need to be patient. unfortunately casinos are going electronic on roulette so there goes another game in down the crapper. :cry:

 

[RJT]

Well if you want to ignore the extra few % far be it from me to argue. Personally considering the action that these teams were laying down i'd reckon that that few % could amount to quite a lot... Not saying that you should only play European wheels, but given the choice and the skill, i know which i'd choose.

RJT.

 

[Sonny]

Lol, now now Sonny. This is far from insignificant.

In terms of EV you are correct. All other things being equal, the wheel with the smallest house edge will give you the highest EV. What I was getting at is that either game is just about as easy to beat. The techniques can be so powerful that it really doesn’t matter what kind of wheel it is. In terms of ability to get an advantage, the difference is insignificant.

The same is true with many card games. I don’t care if it’s blackjack, caribbean stud, baccarat, three card poker, let it ride, or whatever. If I can catch a glimpse of a few hidden cards then I’ll beat the pants off them. I’m not trying to beat the game, I’m trying to beat the cards. With some techniques it really doesn't matter what the rules of the game are. Any game is equally susceptible.

-Sonny-

 

[RJT]

In terms of EV you are correct. All other things being equal, the wheel with the smallest house edge will give you the highest EV. What I was getting at is that either game is just about as easy to beat. The techniques can be so powerful that it really doesn’t matter what kind of wheel it is. In terms of ability to get an advantage, the difference is insignificant.

Agree, i was just being pedantic lol.

RJT.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

I have to agree with Sonny. Look at the published cases of beating the wheel. The wins are enormous, in the hundreds of thousands and millions. It's not a matter of grinding out a 1% edge. If you can visually predict a reasonably small range for the ball to fall in, or better yet, spot a wheel bias, you won't be worried about whether a wheel has one or two green slots.

i guess then you could say that if you have a very slight bias, or your not 100% sure, you can only narrow it down to like half the wheel, then sonny is wrong in that taking 3% off the house edge is no big deal, but for the most part if your good at finding a bias, then your edge is going to be a lot more than a few percent, so if you had FOR EXAMPLE a 37% edge, having a 37% or 34% edge probably isnt too big of a deal (yes i am aware that its not as simple as subtracting 3% from 37% because your 37% edge would change if you were on a single zero wheel, but its just an example (some of you get way bent out of shape on my examples))

 

[Brock Windsor]

examples

Don't worry Bob, I don't get bent out of shape over your examples....
...But when Sonny says "I don’t care if it’s blackjack, caribbean stud, baccarat, three card poker, let it ride, or whatever. If I can catch a glimpse of a few hidden cards then I’ll beat the pants off them." That's an example I want to see. BJ and 3CP I could beat. Let it Ride and Baccarat I think I could figure out. But caribbean stud, Big 6 wheel, hold'em bonus, Spanish21 let's see some mathematical strategies for beating these games with "X" amount of additional info. I think there's some real talent on this forum but the elite seem content to throw counting scraps to the rest of us while keeping the gourmet AP to themselves. I'm not saying that it is without good reason, but sharing ideas will make them stronger.
BW

 

[zengrifter]

There is also this method -

Computer to beat Roulette LEGAL in UK
roulette clocking? or mapping?
Roulette: Stefano Hourmouzis
​

 

[zengrifter]

But caribbean stud, Big 6 wheel...let's see some mathematical strategies for beating these games

Carib Stud, see Stanley Ho - requires a flash of at least one card for 2.5+ % advantage. Big 6, see Grosjean - requires clocked dealer signature. zg

 

[zengrifter]

i guess then you could say that if you have a very slight bias, or your not 100% sure, you can only narrow it down to like half the wheel, then sonny is wrong in that taking 3% off the house edge is no big deal

What? If you could narrow it to half the wheel your advantage over the casino would be OVER 90%!
It would not matter whether the game was American or Euro roulette. zg

 

[moo321]

see Grosjean

That tends to be a problem when the book is impossible to find...

 

[RJT]

Don't worry Bob, I don't get bent out of shape over your examples....
...But when Sonny says "I don’t care if it’s blackjack, caribbean stud, baccarat, three card poker, let it ride, or whatever. If I can catch a glimpse of a few hidden cards then I’ll beat the pants off them." That's an example I want to see. BJ and 3CP I could beat. Let it Ride and Baccarat I think I could figure out. But caribbean stud, Big 6 wheel, hold'em bonus, Spanish21 let's see some mathematical strategies for beating these games with "X" amount of additional info. I think there's some real talent on this forum but the elite seem content to throw counting scraps to the rest of us while keeping the gourmet AP to themselves. I'm not saying that it is without good reason, but sharing ideas will make them stronger.
BW

As much as Grosjean's book is open to the public, it is so scarse that the information in it is pretty much still underground with regards to most of us. It should stay that way. At least for a while. I would love to get a read of that book, but i'll wait until i can get a copy of my own, and when i do it's unlikely i would discuss anything more than the very basic concepts involved. Truth told i think i already have a good idea of most of what is covered in Beyond Counting, and it's not of the greatest use to me - but i wouldn't blow the game for anyone else.
What concerns me more is that there are other members of the community that are putting information on various advanced strategies out which they know to be flawed to such an extent as to be useless and are trying to discredit any who put out accurate information. That's a more dangerous trend that should be stopped.

RJT.

 

[shadroch]

I've read several articles on beating the Big 6. One is in Comp City,one was in Casino Player. I'm pretty sure you can find them on-line if you really wanted to.In a nutshell- its about finding a bored dealer who uses a repetitive motion when spinning the wheel.

 

[Sonny]

i guess then you could say that if you have a very slight bias, or your not 100% sure, you can only narrow it down to like half the wheel, then sonny is wrong in that taking 3% off the house edge is no big deal

No, it’s still not a big deal then either. No matter which wheel you play you will win 35 units half the time and lose 1 half the time. The EV is exactly the same for both wheels.

-Sonny-

 

[nightspirit]

Carib Stud, see Stanley Ho - requires a flash of at least one card for 2.5+ % advantage. Big 6, see Grosjean - requires clocked dealer signature. zg

I'm sure you meaned Stanley Ko

That tends to be a problem when the book is impossible to find...

(Dead link: http://www.ilab.org/db/search.php?Author=James+Grosjean&Title=) _Nothing is impossible_.