Progression better than flat betting

[picasso]

Catchy title, eh? Anyway, the following progression is proportionately better than flat betting, see for yourself:

The progression
10-11-13-16-20-25-31-38-46-55-65-76-88-101-115-130-146-163-181-200-220-241-263-286-310-335-361-388-416-445-475

31 hands; say you win on hand 31 (bad luck), you have lost 4320$ (excluding double, BJ's or splits) Money played: 5240$
So you have lost 4320/5240 or 82.4% of capital put in play.

Flat better
10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

31 hands; say you win on hand 31 (bad luck), you have lost 290$ (excluding double, BJ's or splits) Money played: 310$
So you have lost 290/310 or 93.5% of capital put in play.

Progression proportionately losses less than flat betting!

Actually, win anywhere going up the progression is proportionately better than the flat better!

 

[QFIT]

And 1=2

 

[psyduck]

Catchy title, eh? Anyway, the following progression is proportionately better than flat betting, see for yourself:

The progression
10-11-13-16-20-25-31-38-46-55-65-76-88-101-115-130-146-163-181-200-220-241-263-286-310-335-361-388-416-445-475

31 hands; say you win on hand 31 (bad luck), you have lost 4320$ (excluding double, BJ's or splits) Money played: 5240$
So you have lost 4320/5240 or 82.4% of capital put in play.

Flat better
10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

31 hands; say you win on hand 31 (bad luck), you have lost 290$ (excluding double, BJ's or splits) Money played: 310$
So you have lost 290/310 or 93.5% of capital put in play.

Progression proportionately losses less than flat betting!

Are you saying $4320 (progression loss) is less than $290 (flat loss)? You have to convince me on that.

 

[picasso]

Progression proportionately losses less than flat betting!

 

[psyduck]

Progression proportionately losses less than flat betting!

Say you lose the first 4 hands (not so bad luck), the two systems are PROPORTIONATELY the same - both losing 100% of money bet.

 

[Renzey]

The following progression is proportionately better than flat betting, see for yourself:

31 hands; say you win on hand 31 (bad luck), you have lost 4320$. Money played: 5240$
So you have lost 4320/5240 or 82.4% of capital put in play.

Flat better
10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

31 hands; say you win on hand 31 (bad luck), you have lost 290$ (excluding double, BJ's or splits) Money played: 310$
So you have lost 290/310 or 93.5% of capital put in play.

Progression proportionately losses less than flat betting

When you analyze a betting progression, you can't just look at how it does when "this" happens or "that" happens. You have to count how it does when "everything" happens. Just looking at this or that will lead you down the garden path to financial oblivion.
If you want to check that progression, or any progression even semi-responsibly, then check it against a win/lose chart that covers every possible win/loss sequence for any "particular" number of bets.

It doens't have to be a large number of bets. A win/loss chart for just 6 bets should show you what the progression is worth. That will consist of only 64 possible win/lose sequences, such as WWWWWW, or LLLLLL, or WLWLWL -- and all 61 other possible outcomes in between. Understand that in an even game, flat betting would win exactly as many units as it would lose after tallying up the results of all those equally likely sequences. But here's the part that progression bettors just can't get thru their heads: So will any progression! Don't believe it? Then you really owe it to yourself to construct the 64 line win/lose sequence chart, and check the results of your progression thru all 64 sequences.

This next point should be apparent: If it's an unfair game where you win say 48% of your bets and lose 52%, then flat betting will lose -- and so will the progression. The progression will lose simply because you'll end up losing 52% of your 1 unit bets, 52% of your 2 unit bets, 52% of your 3 unit bets, etc, etc. In the end, the progression will lose the same percentage of betting volume as flat betting, and your chart will show that.

Here's an easy eye-opener. If 6 bets with 64 possible oucomes is too many, then start out with 3 bets and 8 possible outcomes in a 50-50 game. Go ahead; just use 10-11-13 and apply it to WWW, WWL, WLW, LWW, LLW, LWL, WLL and LLL. How many total units were won -- and lost?? Fascinated?? Now expand the chart some. The bottom line will always be the same.

Is this beginning to make some sense for Pete's sake???

 

[picasso]

Say you lose the first 4 hands (not so bad luck), the two systems are PROPORTIONATELY the same - both losing 100% of money bet.

You are correct, because in the progression example, I forgot to mention that you keep flat betting until you lose, and only then start going up the progression. Any win thereafter and you go back to flat betting until you lose again etc. etc.

 

[Sonny]

Progression proportionately losses less than flat betting!

That's not true. You will lose proportionately 0.5% of the money you bet (or whatever the particular house edge is). Raising your bets will cause you to lose proportionately more money. It's as simple as that. Keep that in mind when you are designing your next progression system. That simple fact will save you a lot of time.

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

Keep that in mind when you are designing your next progression system. That simple fact will save you a lot of time.

Picasso, how many different progressions have you designed, and over what period of time? zg

 

[paddywhack]

Wow Rezney

When you analyze a betting progression, you can't just look at how it does when "this" happens or "that" happens. You have to count how it does when "everything" happens. Just looking at this or that will lead you down the garden path to financial oblivion.
If you want to check that progression, or any progression even semi-responsibly, then check it against a win/lose chart that covers every possible win/loss sequence for any "particular" number of bets.

It doens't have to be a large number of bets. A win/loss chart for just 6 bets should show you what the progression is worth. That will consist of only 64 possible win/lose sequences, such as WWWWWW, or LLLLLL, or WLWLWL -- and all 61 other possible outcomes in between. Understand that in an even game, flat betting would win exactly as many units as it would lose after tallying up the results of all those equally likely sequences. But here's the part that progression bettors just can't get thru their heads: So will any progression! Don't believe it? Then you really owe it to yourself to construct the 64 line win/lose sequence chart, and check the results of your progression thru all 64 sequences.

This next point should be apparent: If it's an unfair game where you win say 48% of your bets and lose 52%, then flat betting will lose -- and so will the progression. The progression will lose simply because you'll end up losing 52% of your 1 unit bets, 52% of your 2 unit bets, 52% of your 3 unit bets, etc, etc. In the end, the progression will lose the same percentage of betting volume as flat betting, and your chart will show that.

Here's an easy eye-opener. If 6 bets with 64 possible oucomes is too many, then start out with 3 bets and 8 possible outcomes in a 50-50 game. Go ahead; just use 10-11-13 and apply it to WWW, WWL, WLW, LWW, LLW, LWL, WLL and LLL. How many total units were won -- and lost?? Fascinated?? Now expand the chart some. The bottom line will always be the same.

Is this beginning to make some sense for Pete's sake???

You went through a lot of effort for this one. Just give up, I doubt anyone with convince these progression guys that they have it all wrong. Short term results can make believers out of many. In the long term, they're going down, just like the Titanic!! :laugh:

 

[zengrifter]

You went through a lot of effort for this one. Just give up, I doubt anyone with convince these progression guys that they have it all wrong. Short term results can make believers out of many. In the long term, they're going down, just like the Titanic!! :laugh:

In the Great Depression: When critics raised the similar objections to F.D.R.’s New Deal food-relief programs that claimed, "In the long run people will eat better!" his relief administrator, Harry Hopkins, had a ready answer: “Mr. President, people don’t eat in the long run. They eat every day.”

Same concept, right? zg

 

[shadroch]

In the Great Depression: When critics raised the similar objections to F.D.R.’s New Deal food-relief programs that claimed, "In the long run people will eat better!" his relief administrator, Harry Hopkins, had a ready answer: “Mr. President, people don’t eat in the long run. They eat every day.”

Same concept, right? zg

No, it's not.

 

[picasso]

Here's an easy eye-opener. If 6 bets with 64 possible oucomes is too many, then start out with 3 bets and 8 possible outcomes in a 50-50 game. Go ahead; just use 10-11-13 and apply it to WWW, WWL, WLW, LWW, LLW, LWL, WLL and LLL. How many total units were won -- and lost?? Fascinated?? Now expand the chart some. The bottom line will always be the same.

Is this beginning to make some sense for Pete's sake???

This one is for the sake of Pete:

The picasso progression explained in better terms:

Example, 10$ table, max bet 500$, negative progression

Flat bet until you lose, then:
10-11-13-16-20-25-31-38-46-55-65-76-88-101-115-130-146-163-181-200-220-241-263-286-310-335-361-388-416-445-475

Win anywhere going up this progression, start again at 10$. If you lose a double (triple etc) skip one or more steps.

Now then, flat better (10$)
WWL= +10$
WLW= +10$
LWW = +10$
LLW= -10$
LWL= -10$
WLL= -10$
LLL= -30$
WWW= +30$

Total=0$

Now, picasso progression:
WWL= +10$
WLW= +10$
LWW = +11$ (L10, W11, W10)
LLW= -10$
LWL= -09$ (L10, W11, L10)
WLL= -10$
LLL= -30$
WWW= +30$

Total= +2$

Picasso's progression up by 2$

The next point:

this next point should be apparent: If it's an unfair game where you win say 48% of your bets and lose 52%, then flat betting will lose -- and so will the progression. the progression will lose simply because you'll end up losing 52% of your 1 unit bets, 52% of your 2 unit bets, 52% of your 3 unit bets, etc, etc. In the end, the progression will lose the same percentage of betting volume as flat betting, and your chart will show that.

To prove my point on this one you will need a piece of paper, pen, calculator and master addition, subtraction, multiplication and division (a piece of cake for most of us, right? )

Take my progression ANYWHERE when the amount rises and AFTER ONE SIMPLE WINNING HAND in 31 tries. Stop there and do the math; I'll provide an example (excluding double, BJ's & splits in order to simplify)

L10, L11, L13, L16, L20, L25, L31, L38, L46, W55
Total loss= 155$
Total capital put in play=265$
Losing ratio= 155/265 or .585

Flat better 10$
L10, L10, L10, L10, L10, L10, L10, L10, L10, W10
Total loss= 80$
Total capital put in play=100$
Losing ratio= 80/100 or .800

I'm not saying progressions work (although I can believe some can...belief is cheap ), all I'm stating is that this progression is proportionately better than flat betting.

I appreciate constructive criticism ! :cat:

 

[zengrifter]

To prove my point on this one you will need a piece of paper, pen, calculator and master addition, subtraction, multiplication and division.

I appreciate constructive criticism ! :cat:

Is it Fibonacci? zg

 

[Sonny]

Picasso, this thread is being locked because your posts are against the posting guidelines. You actually broke all 3 of them.

"This forum is not a place to promote your voodoo system, make false/unfounded claims about the effectiveness of such systems or spread inaccurate information about playing/betting strategies."

You have broken these rules numerous times and will likely continue to break them. Since you obviously aren't willing to research anything yourself, listen to any of the constructive criticism or even analyze your own system before promoting it, I am forced to ban you from this website. This website is for people who want to learn how to play blackjack. You obviously aren't willing to learn. You don't even care enough to discover the obvious flaws in your own system. Luckily there are plenty of other gambling websites where you can talk about progression systems and people might even believe your nonsense. I wish you the best of luck there.

-Sonny-

 

[zengrifter]

Picasso, this thread is being locked because your posts are against the posting guidelines. You actually broke all 3 of them.

"This forum is not a place to promote your voodoo system, make false/unfounded claims about the effectiveness of such systems or spread inaccurate information about playing/betting strategies."

You have broken these rules numerous times and will likely continue to break them. Since you obviously aren't willing to research anything yourself, listen to any of the constructive criticism or even analyze your own system before promoting it, I am forced to ban you from this website. This website is for people who want to learn how to play blackjack. You obviously aren't willing to learn. You don't even care enough to discover the obvious flaws in your own system. Luckily there are plenty of other gambling websites where you can talk about progression systems and people might even believe your nonsense. I wish you the best of luck there.

He was better than most of the progressionists.
I thought I heard him say more than once "they don't really work." zg

 

[psyduck]

Sonny,

I'm just curious. What type of topics are allowed in the voodoo section? I thought any nonsense can be posted here because it's called voodoo. It's my impression he never tried to sell any system here.

 

[QFIT]

Let me pose a personal thought on this.

A voodoo section may be useful as a method of sloughing detritus into a trash area in order to keep discussions on a public board reasonably free of malignant logic, and on the point of the declared purpose of the forum. But, even when discussions have been shoved to a quarantine area, when discussions continue and get out of hand, don’t we, as citizens of the site, have some responsibility to point out advice that is so awful that it can cause serious damage?

Just my HO.

(And hey, I don’t mean malignant logic, detritus, quarantine, awful and serious damage in a bad way.)

 

[zengrifter]

I'm just curious. What type of topics are allowed in the voodoo section? I thought any nonsense can be posted here because it's called voodoo.

THAT is how it SHOULD BE. zg

 

[zengrifter]

A voodoo section may be useful as a method of sloughing detritus into a trash area in order to keep discussions on a public board reasonably free of malignant logic, and on the point of the declared purpose of the forum. But, even when discussions have been shoved to a quarantine area, when discussions continue and get out of hand, don’t we, as citizens of the site, have some responsibility to point out advice that is so awful that it can cause serious damage?

-

sloughing detritus​

Did you just get exfoliated?

Absolutely, to the underlined. No conflict there.
I wonder if Picasso was sufficiently warned? zg

A voodoo section may be useful as a method of sloughing detritus into a trash area
in order to keep discussions on a public board reasonably free of malignant logic​