Progressive Betting Systems

[johndoe]

John Doe re expectation.

If the first hand from a shoe, you can calculate the probability (win/loss) of that hand with complete accuracy. Many hands have a positive expectation even with skewed distribution of the deck. All this is beside the point; it is not necessary to know the next hand's expectation to determine your bet size.

You can calculate the probability of all hands with complete accuracy. Sometimes, if there are excessive tens and aces still in the shoe, they will have a positive expectation. But if you aren't keeping track of these cards, i.e. counting, you have no extra knowledge of the cards likely to be dealt, and therefore the expectation is exactly what it would be for the first hand. (i.e. negative)

All this streak stuff is total bunk. Give it a rest.

 

[psyduck]

Progressive betting systems work, sometimes spectacularly, for a short time span due to luck (variance). You may feel unbeatable for a while, but eventually reality will wake you up. Trust me.

 

[DSchles]

Re Post#16:

I answered Post#2 & #4 as far as I want to in Post#3. This is a work in progress and I am seeking ways to improve it. If successful I will still not publish the particulars. I intend to sell it to the casinos and then hire out as a consultant to teach them how to prevent its use.

OK, you've had your fun trolling. I suggest to the members that we stop responding. I suggest to Backbayal that you stop posting utter nonsense.

Wonder which, if either, will happen first.

Don

 

[Backbayal]

Re Post#17 &21:

Before a hand is dealt the expectation is usually negative: when you see your two cards and the the dealer's up card the expectation for this hand changes. But no matter, your bet size is determined by recent history. The deck has no memory, but your playing stack does, exactly!

Re Post#21: Not a put-down, but why should I trust you: just show me the math. That's what I asked for in the first place.

Re Post#22: I have always read your posts with great interest and think them insightful. I was surprised and hurt by your response.

 

[BoSox]

Backbayal, you should feel very fortunate that you joined this board. You may not realize it yet but you are getting plenty of good advice here, and one day you will be very thankful for the members who told you straight out the correct answers.

 

[psyduck]

Re Post#22: I have always read your posts with great interest and think them insightful. I was surprised and hurt by your response.

Sorry you feel hurt. That was not my intent. I was talking from experience, been there done that. In the early early days before counting, I even reached all time high at that time with progressive betting, but then it crashed.

Get a simulator and play with any betting system you can come up with and see the result.

 

[johndoe]

Re Post#17 &21:

Before a hand is dealt the expectation is usually negative: when you see your two cards and the the dealer's up card the expectation for this hand changes. But no matter, your bet size is determined by recent history. The deck has no memory, but your playing stack does, exactly!

Re Post#21: Not a put-down, but why should I trust you: just show me the math. That's what I asked for in the first place.

Re Post#22: I have always read your posts with great interest and think them insightful. I was surprised and hurt by your response.

The burden of proof is on you to prove that your system works, but it's obvious to anyone with even a minute understanding of statistics that it's garbage. People wander into these forums regularly with such claims, without doing any of their research, and it's tiresome.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/
http://www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_62_systems.shtml
http://www.blackjack-scams.com/html/prog__systems.html

and a definitive proof:

https://web.archive.org/web/20070202144021/http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/unfair.htm

It's generally a waste of time arguing with people like you, sadly, as you're insistent that your system is somehow different than the rest, and refuse to recognize that it's really all the same.

 

[Hell'nBack]

OK, you've had your fun trolling. I suggest to the members that we stop responding. I suggest to Backbayal that you stop posting utter nonsense.

Wonder which, if either, will happen first.

Don

Some children have to learn their lessons the hard way. Prisons are full of them.

 

[Backbayal]

Re Post#27:

I don't think there is any two time BJ player that has not thought of a winning progressive betting system. All of them have been proven wrong!
So far. Thanks for the references. I will read each of them carefully before my next reply.

 

[johndoe]

Re Post#27:

I don't think there is any two time BJ player that has not thought of a winning progressive betting system. All of them have been proven wrong!
So far. Thanks for the references. I will read each of them carefully before my next reply.

Not "so far". The last link proves that ALL progression systems don't work.

 

[KewlJ]

Really?!?! we are 2 pages into a progressive system debate? Seems like even a step below a "count" debate, of which I have been in a few.

So I am not going to jump in. No Need. Johndoe is doing great! If I were to jump in I think I would just be "liking", each of his posts and points....so consider that I have done that.

 

[21forme]

Threads never end. They just go off topic. Just ask Don.

 

[DSchles]

Threads never end. They just go off topic. Just ask Don.

Yet again, as in my previous post, this one will end when a) we all stop answering, or b) Backbayal sees the folly of his ways and stops trying to answer his own question and to explain to us what we're missing.

Don

 

[Half Smoke]

Yet again, as in my previous post, this one will end when a) we all stop answering, or b) Backbayal sees the folly of his ways and stops trying to answer his own question and to explain to us what we're missing.

Don

literally every day, someone on the web "discovers" the Martingale - and believes it is the Holy Grail - this one happens to be a reverse martingale

the flawed idea of the Martingale is hundreds of years old

the Martingale just will not die - it's really quite amazing that a justifiably discredited concept can have so much life

 

[xengrifter]

Many individual hands have a positive expectation. Sometimes you win one! The heart of my strategy is the defense. It is a passive system. You wait for the occasional winning streak, just like a card-counter waits for a positive count.

Not psychic--patient. It's a lot like fishing.

Brilliant, if you ask me!
And this approach differs from other historic progressive betting advocates, like Clifton Davis and Morton Jacobs because previous era pioneers of advanced progressive betting blackjack theory advocated reduced doubling down whereas this new era 21st century approach advocates increased more aggressive doubling down (when the fish bites).

See also, BJ breakthrough --
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/major-bj-breakthrough.24279/

 

[Backbayal]

Re#35: Zengrifter

Thank you for the encouraging words. I was somewhat cowed by the heat of other criticism. My system is different than Martingale or Anti-martingale. I have not previously declared any mathematical skills other than being able to count to 22 with my socks off. I would like to add that I know how many turnips it takes to make a truckload.

 

[DSchles]

Re#35: Zengrifter

Thank you for the encouraging words. I was somewhat cowed by the heat of other criticism. My system is different than Martingale or Anti-martingale. I have not previously declared any mathematical skills other than being able to count to 22 with my socks off. I would like to add that I know how many turnips it takes to make a truckload.

Guessing you simply are too naive to recognize sarcasm when you see it.

Don

 

[Backbayal]

Re#37:

The dog has barked; let's move on.

 

[LC Larry]

There are other sites for your voodoo garbage. Please take it to one of them.

 

[xengrifter]

The dog has barked; let's move on.

"First they laugh,
then they attack you,
then you win." --Gandhi