mdlbj said:
I guess Im not a real expert because I dont know the answer. But I have done something close to this on a few occasions. I have seen the next card to be delt and have doubled a hard 13. Why.. Just because I had the info to make a playing decision.
Wow, you should have jumped up on the stool and shouted in a Cuban accident, "Say hallooo to my li'l friend!"
This is starting to make me a little crazy.. Why would I hit a hard 12 on a 4 if I have not seen the hole card or have not tracked the shuffle and am not counting.. Come on man, cough it up.. Why???
Because without any extra info, straight BS, the EV-based BS degrades a bit , not entirely optimal, on that hand. My lay sense it being similar to RA or CE type consideration, without any 1st-year statistical logic to back my thinking up.
Also, something that Karl Janecek mentioned to me in passing may have rang true. And similar to Grosjean's case for why you
might want to insure a good hand for less, sometimes, when the count doesn't warrant it.
Or maybe, also, its like that scene in 21 where the kid chooses 'curtain 1-2-3'?
Apart from the above, remember I teach that there is a LOT of room for fudge on indices anyway - so if counting, the line isn't a strict immuteable index for any hand, but 12v4 is a case in point - you can hit or stand at whim between -2 and +2 and it will have no effect on your game whatsoever. So why not hit!? zg
Ps - Anyone, please feel free to jump in and show the chibi-san-zen the error of my thinking on 12v4... and this whole theory can summarily be moved to VOODOO.