ditto :1st:SystemsTrader said:QFIT I don't understand the criticism you've received here but I just want to say thanks for everything you've done here. You have helped me and a fellow counter enormously by allowing access to your programs, sims and from your contributions to this board. You have gained a couple of loyal customers and my bankroll thanks you as well!
I agree that my particular small sampling means little,but I have a hard time reconciling your numbers of bankruptcys with actual observations I've been a party to.QFIT said:When I test CV I need to try all sorts of wild play. For example, I might Split every pair no matter what. Even Split fives against a ten. Or Double every hand. I have played sessions like this where I have won huge amounts. OTOH, one of the top BJ players of all time had a losing streak that lasted over six months. Empirical evidence has very little meaning.
That is a terrifying factoid. I assume that OPP's winning sessions are quite big, which would be why it is at all effective?QFIT said:OPP (perfectly played) will win 39.7% and go bankrupt 54.5% of the trips.
Ok,I could see that.If those are your parameters,fine.Perhaps I'm mistaken but I don't believe you'll run into too many players with a $500 BR that make $80 bets unless they are doing a martengale or a stupid all-in last bet.QFIT said:$5 bets with a 1-16 spread means $5 to $80. With an $80 max bet and a $500 bankroll and Splits with DAS, going bust is very likely in 1,000 hands.
This is the problem with weak counting systems. They require a large spread to obtain a positive EV and that means a large variance. OPP with a spread of 1-5 has a negative EV. I would bet that the majority of OPP players are playing a negative EV game.shadroch said:Ok,I could see that.If those are your parameters,fine.Perhaps I'm mistaken but I don't believe you'll run into too many players with a $500 BR that make $80 bets unless they are doing a martengale or a stupid all-in last bet.
Perhaps if you kept the sims to a smaller spread(I go 1-4,1-5 tops) they would reflect closer the real life experiances Jimm and I are getting.
Would it be much trouble to do a sim with a 1-4 spread?
you got me wondering. if one goes by a basic strategy chart say for multiple deck (charts such as commonly found on internet, and some found in the literature) it's most common just to see (for example) 16 V T hit.QFIT said:Basic strategy is to hit 16vT unless it is three or more cards.
1. Did you see the smiley?jimpenn said:"Don't play where there is no surrender." I removed the stick up my *ss, but you just eliminated a large number of the casinos in the US. Did you really mean what you said? If so, could you tell me what percentage of casinos within the US that offers surrender? I will assume you meant late surrender.
Thanks, jp