Question About EV

W

wvbjplayer

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Hey welcome back wvbjplayer. Glad you're winning some money.

Drop in again when you've wagered another $450,000 or so, maybe only $210,000, well still maybe somewhere in that range, playing 2 different games, each to 2 different pens (75%-80%) spreading 1-8 or sometimes 1-13ish in those pesky TC+15 counts, likely playing to a lifetime 100% ROR and ask what your EV is. Don't even give a single thought to actually knowing or maybe having a somewhat reasonable idea of it, all by your lonesome.

How come you don't know what your AIB is since you know how much you bet at each type of count at each type of game over the last 194 hours since you keep such careful track of such things? Was your AIB the same in the 6D game as the 8D game? What did you win in each?

You should thank him for running those numbers for you. He defined everything for a particular game betting in a particular way for you in detail. If you bet that way in that game, believe it or not, that's it.

What makes you think your AIB is $45? I mean, approximately $45? I mean certainly higher than $21?

Even a flat-betting BS player, playing at a neg EV, while having a lifetime ROR of 100%, has a chance of winning whatever in a finite number of hands that's less than 100% of losing his entire roll over those hands.

Is this your way of letting us know you've won $3000 and u da bomb? U think we're gonna just say just keep doing what you're doing and your recreational hobby is gonna win you $15/hr whenever you have an hour or two to spare?

Simply put, consider investing in even a free sim, doesn't really cost that much, and see for yourself what to expect from a game and ramp. Heck, go crazy, and waste 2, that's two, AIB's before your next 10,000 hands and 194 hours go by. Maybe you'll find it's worth knowing exactly what's going on after 19,998 hands and 398 hours compared to knowing jack after 20,000 hands.

Doesn't sound like it, I know, but luv ya buddy :) PM me if u feel like it and we'll work on this stuff so you can see where EyeHeartHalves is coming from.
Click to expand...
I'm no math or stats whiz, so I tend to defer to those who purport to have greater knowledge than I of such subjects. However, even as a layman, I cannot help but distrust all of the information provided in light of the vastly disparate accounts: according to one member of the forum, I should've made $2k by now; according to another, I should've made $4.5k; according to others, I should be flat broke, or will be soon. How am I supposed to decide who's right?

Also, I am absolutely certain that RORs are relative to BRs. Surely you do not dispute this. Accordingly, there is no way anyone could have calculated my ROR without knowing my BR. What if it were $10B? Would my ROR still be 100%? Seems just a tad implausible, with an average bet of $45 or even $450and a life expectancy of about 72 years (only a few thousand hours of which I'll likely spend playing bj).

It is important, when dealing with such complex mathematical matters, not to lose sight of simple common sense.

wvbjplayer
 
W

wvbjplayer

Well-Known Member
Kasi said:
Hey welcome back wvbjplayer. Glad you're winning some money.

Drop in again when you've wagered another $450,000 or so, maybe only $210,000, well still maybe somewhere in that range, playing 2 different games, each to 2 different pens (75%-80%) spreading 1-8 or sometimes 1-13ish in those pesky TC+15 counts, likely playing to a lifetime 100% ROR and ask what your EV is. Don't even give a single thought to actually knowing or maybe having a somewhat reasonable idea of it, all by your lonesome.

How come you don't know what your AIB is since you know how much you bet at each type of count at each type of game over the last 194 hours since you keep such careful track of such things? Was your AIB the same in the 6D game as the 8D game? What did you win in each?

You should thank him for running those numbers for you. He defined everything for a particular game betting in a particular way for you in detail. If you bet that way in that game, believe it or not, that's it.

What makes you think your AIB is $45? I mean, approximately $45? I mean certainly higher than $21?

Even a flat-betting BS player, playing at a neg EV, while having a lifetime ROR of 100%, has a chance of winning whatever in a finite number of hands that's less than 100% of losing his entire roll over those hands.

Is this your way of letting us know you've won $3000 and u da bomb? U think we're gonna just say just keep doing what you're doing and your recreational hobby is gonna win you $15/hr whenever you have an hour or two to spare?

Simply put, consider investing in even a free sim, doesn't really cost that much, and see for yourself what to expect from a game and ramp. Heck, go crazy, and waste 2, that's two, AIB's before your next 10,000 hands and 194 hours go by. Maybe you'll find it's worth knowing exactly what's going on after 19,998 hands and 398 hours compared to knowing jack after 20,000 hands.

Doesn't sound like it, I know, but luv ya buddy :) PM me if u feel like it and we'll work on this stuff so you can see where EyeHeartHalves is coming from.
Click to expand...
Also, where might I download such a free sim?
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
wvbjplayer said:
I'm no math or stats whiz, so I tend to defer to those who purport to have greater knowledge than I of such subjects. However, even as a layman, I cannot help but distrust all of the information provided in light of the vastly disparate accounts: according to one member of the forum, I should've made $2k by now; according to another, I should've made $4.5k; according to others, I should be flat broke, or will be soon. How am I supposed to decide who's right?

Also, I am absolutely certain that RORs are relative to BRs. Surely you do not dispute this. Accordingly, there is no way anyone could have calculated my ROR without knowing my BR. What if it were $10B? Would my ROR still be 100%? Seems just a tad implausible, with an average bet of $45 or even $450and a life expectancy of about 72 years (only a few thousand hours of which I'll likely spend playing bj).

It is important, when dealing with such complex mathematical matters, not to lose sight of simple common sense.

wvbjplayer
Click to expand...
Correct. Give me exact details of the game, penetration, strategy, bets, True Count calculation method, bankroll, etc. and I can give you the answers.
 
K

Kasi

Well-Known Member
wvbjplayer said:
I'm no math or stats whiz, so I tend to defer to those who purport to have greater knowledge than I of such subjects. However, even as a layman, I cannot help but distrust all of the information provided in light of the vastly disparate accounts: according to one member of the forum, I should've made $2k by now; according to another, I should've made $4.5k; according to others, I should be flat broke, or will be soon. How am I supposed to decide who's right?
Click to expand...
I'm no math or stats wiz either that's for sure. Never took a statistics or probability course. Can't do calculus. When you break this stuff down, it basically comes down to multiplying, dividing, adding and subtracting. So don't be intimidated by its "complexity".

And you're right to distrust all the information. That's pretty much my point. The more you can answer your own questions, the better off you are. God bless the child who has his own. Not that I'm even saying any of their info was "wrong". I can tell you QFIT noted he assumed a 1-8 spread bet optimally. That probably didn't mean much to you. But that produces a game with a positive EV. Your 1-8 spread was far from optimal because you were betting a different number of units at different TC's and therefore likely produced a game with a neg EV as EyeHeart pointed out. And I'm clueless about the assumptions behind that $4500 too lol.

Anyway, I just want you to at least see the value of a sim and how to answer alot of your own questions based on that. So I'm PMing you lol.
 
W

wvbjplayer

Well-Known Member
QFIT said:
Correct. Give me exact details of the game, penetration, strategy, bets, True Count calculation method, bankroll, etc. and I can give you the answers.
Click to expand...
See my earlier post for most of this stuff. My BR is about $15k. TC calculation method is the usual: divide the RC by the # of decks in the discard tray.

wvbjplayer
 
W

wvbjplayer

Well-Known Member
wvbjplayer said:
See my earlier post for most of this stuff. My BR is about $15k. TC calculation method is the usual: divide the RC by the # of decks in the discard tray.

wvbjplayer
Click to expand...
Oops. Make that "# of decks remaining (to be dealt)."
 
EasyRhino

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
wvbjplayer said:
It is important, when dealing with such complex mathematical matters, not to lose sight of simple common sense.
Click to expand...
Two reasons you may have seen different figures so far:

1) If playing a game with a house advantage, long term risk of ruin is always 100%. Always.

2) You've gotten different numbers as you've provided more details of your game. For instance, your bet spread is very suboptimal True counts of 7+ aren't going to be encountered on a regular basis, and yet it's important to get (relatively) bigger bets on the table to make any money.

Note how EHH's assumption had you with an 8x bet at TC+3, while your spread has you with only 2.5x bet.

You need to be slamming out bets that's 15x your min bet at TC's of +4 or +5 or so.
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
Here are the results:


You are substantially over-betting, but you are increasing your bets far too slowly. TCs above 8 hardly ever occur, particularly in 8 deck games. Your risk of ruin is 56% if you continue this way -- but it was 0% for 10,000 hands. The probability of making $3,000 was 15%. You barely have an edge at .07%.

Now with optimal betting with a 1-16 spread, your advantage would increase from .07% to .77%. Your risk of ruin would drop from 56% to 10%. Win Rate per hour would go from $0.75 to $9.25.
 
E

EyeHeartHalves

Well-Known Member
Qfit, Please Read The Whole Thread.

When I started my first sim which only got to about 1M hands be wv's very timely response, I had him betting similar to your sim--$10 versus $80 at a TC of +3. BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT HE WAS DOING! He would have been positive EV if he was doing that.

Thank you EasyRhino for you back-up on this RoR issue. Look, wv, I understand what you are saying and you can call the formula a stupid formula because of it but you can't call it wrong. The formula doesn't care if you live to 72 years old, IT ASSUMES THAT YOU WILL LIVE AND PLAY THE GAME FOREVER. You said "$10B" and $45 AIB. Well, if you haphazardly threw 9 red chips on the inside of the roulette board every hand and your net worth was ten billion dollars, YOUR ROR IS 100%. Meaning, eventually (assuming you do the same thing for an "eternity," your "finite" bankroll of 10 billion will eventually deplete to 5, 10, 15 or ZERO DOLLARS.
 
E

EyeHeartHalves

Well-Known Member
And Qfit,

Your software is better than mine. Can you run a sim for me (I THINK YOU'LL LIKE IT) and/or tell me how to get that exact software??? Pleeeeease?
 
QFIT

QFIT

Well-Known Member
EyeHeartHalves said:
When I started my first sim which only got to about 1M hands be wv's very timely response, I had him betting similar to your sim--$10 versus $80 at a TC of +3. BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT HE WAS DOING! He would have been positive EV if he was doing that.
Click to expand...
That's the Optimal Chips column. The Custom Bets column was according to the way he bet. I got a tiny advantage for him. This is with 2 billion rounds. (I can run up to 20 million rounds per second.)
 
E

EyeHeartHalves

Well-Known Member
Okay Qfit,

I apologize. Your software is better and never included his $200 bet at TC+13. I can see from your spreadsheet how that would have made a difference. $1.50 per hundred hands does seem plausible. I'll give that link a try. Thank you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top