Question for Fred Renzey

[Sir Counts-A-Lot]

Yeah that is what is so appealing about SP21. I am a fairly new counter and most of my time has been spent "studying up" rather than actual casino time. I have yet to scout it out but have been told I am near a S17 SP21 game. I have got my Hi-Lo down pat (was thinking about switching to the Kat count) and have the BS down pat for the S17 SP21 game, however I still need to learn index plays. I don't have a huge bankroll to work with but even starting with a relatively meager (say 3k bankroll) wouldn't I be better off doing a reasonable spread at SP21 rather than grinding away for that 1% at a regular blackjack game? Assuming I will get better penetration and less heat at SP21? I'm not in the position to do a 1:50 spread obviously but use wonging and say spread 1:15 only in high counts of SP21? Will that get me more bang for my buck if I put in the time and learn all of the index plays?

In short, why is such a large bankroll and spread recommended for SP21 other than you can get away with it? Isn't it just as easy (or maybe easier) to get an advantage over the house with SP21 and using a fairly typical BJ spread going to work as well? Or is it the nature of the ruleset that demands a larger spread for SP21? I don't recall seeing a breakdown of % of winning hands vs losing hands in Kat's book...it would be interesting to see if it varies greatly from BJ (the win 42% lose 49% push the rest or whatever it is) or if even more of the money gain comes from doubling, splitting, etc.

 

[21forme]

IIRC, from Kat's book, she recommends "proportional betting." That is, spreading with your true edge rather than the count. Reason for this is you can and you have a higher EV. In BJ, you'd get backed off in no time, jumping a bet from $10 to $100 to $200, etc. In Sp21, it's a non-issue (for now.)

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Thats the problem I have with SP21. You need a huge BR. Playing in AC,a spread of $10-$250 is barely enough.One occasion of doubling,then re-doubling a big bet left me convinced it wasn't the game for me,even when I won.

Not at all, not in the S17 (no redouble) game. In fact you need a smaller bankroll for the same max bet. My max bet at SP21 is double that for AC blackjack.

The reason is the standard deviation is lower. You are doing less doubling and pulling your doubles back when they don't go your way. You're surrendering bad hands in high counts, never taking insurance, and a bunch of your advantage comes from bonus hands that you don't need to put extra money down to exploit. You're also hitting a lot more stiffs, and some of those hits will convert to pushes which lower the SD.

 

[shadroch]

Not at all, not in the S17 (no redouble) game. In fact you need a smaller bankroll for the same max bet. My max bet at SP21 is double that for AC blackjack.

The reason is the standard deviation is lower. You are doing less doubling and pulling your doubles back when they don't go your way. You're surrendering bad hands in high counts, never taking insurance, and a bunch of your advantage comes from bonus hands that you don't need to put extra money down to exploit. You're also hitting a lot more stiffs, and some of those hits will convert to pushes which lower the SD.

You guys may very well be right, but that wasn't my experiance.. I played it twice after studying her book. Once I spread $10-40, and pretty much broke even. I was advised to up my spread. Next trip, with about a $1500 trip BR,I had around $150-160 out as a bet. I thought I doubled and redoubled, but I might have split and doubled. All I know is that I had a much bigger bet than I was comfortable with, and even though I won the bet, I stopped playing and haven't looked back. In fact, I sold my copy of the book. Perhaps I'm missing the boat, but it won't be the first time. Nor will it be the last.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

You guys may very well be right, but that wasn't my experiance.. I played it twice after studying her book. Once I spread $10-40, and pretty much broke even. I was advised to up my spread. Next trip, with about a $1500 trip BR,I had around $150-160 out as a bet. I thought I doubled and redoubled, but I might have split and doubled. All I know is that I had a much bigger bet than I was comfortable with, and even though I won the bet, I stopped playing and haven't looked back. In fact, I sold my copy of the book. Perhaps I'm missing the boat, but it won't be the first time. Nor will it be the last.

Understood. You have to adjust your psychology a bit to play these kinds of games. I'll never forget the way I felt the first time I bet a purple chip because I saw the next card and it was an ace. Had to do it though.

 

[sagefr0g]

... I'll never forget the way I felt the first time I bet a purple chip because I saw the next card and it was an ace. Had to do it though.

well? did you win it?