question for noobs

[la_dee_daa]

Don't worry - not likely lol.

Although, believe it or not, in Tahoe I actually did play in a way that satisfied my definition of a counter. Neither here nor there I guess lol.

What do you think is the dividing line between, say, someone like me and a "real" counter? After all, we both count, vary our bets, use indexes etc. Maybe we even both happen to have actually won a few bucks. Maybe I'm a counter with a really weird bet spread lol.

Anyway, I imagine everyone might have a little different definition of how they view it. Mine is pretty narrow, I admit lol.

BTW, I know I never got back to you on that betting stuff you were doing from a while back and I apologise for that. Not that it matters, and probably might even be bad news lol, but alot what you were doing made sense to me.

That oughtta scare the cr*p out of you lol.

iv been listening to some voodoer all this time!!!!!! man no wonder things haven't gone well lol.:joker:

Well believe it our not you may just classify as a card counter!! i feel if you do play to an advantage through counting with a resonably low ror useing indicies and what not.. even if your bet spread varries at time as long as you realize it. admitting it is the first step of the 12 steps here. so your on a good start just have to work on quitting it!.... All card counters just have differen't skill levels thats all.. but hey if you aren't a "card counter" you should never get backed off:grin:

I haven't even used my full bet spread i am disiplied with it up to a true count of +3.5 but due to by bad "luck" have yet been able to commit betting more then $100 because i would probably end up losing more then I even put down on the table All that story is in one of my other threads.

:cow:

 

[sagefr0g]

...... but hey if you aren't a "card counter" you should never get backed off:grin:
....
:cow:

that's what i think he is up to. you know some sort of a psychological thing so as he don't get nervous about heat and all. :joker:

 

[la_dee_daa]

that's what i think he is up to. you know some sort of a psychological thing so as he don't get nervous about heat and all. :joker:

i think were on to something here super APs have non existant heat.

we now have one in our presence

every other Ap is thinking man im such a freaking great card counter taking all this money from the casino... they Pit picks up on stuff like this... they can read minds you know, well the good ones at least. You project what you think.... no what im joining this midset to.

I AM NOT A CARD COUNTER.. hehehe

Kasi on a rating scale for card counters from 1-10 you are now a 11

:cow:

 

[Kasi]

been playing BJ for 8 and makeing only $35,800 as a BJ player what would that qualify me as ? I keep records so my figures are very accurate. My records are by years Jan 1 thru Dec 31.

You must be one of those weird card-counters that for some really silly reason wasted his time taking a couple extra minutes to write down what happened each session/trip and actually keep an accurate log for 8 years, knows how much money he made, maybe even about how much he played.

You're my hero.

So, just because you might have a good chance of figuring out a reasonable guess to your question, it makes you successful in my book.

What else do you record besides dollars?

 

[Kasi]

All card counters just have differen't skill levels thats all..

I don't know - I doubt if my skill level is much different than yours.

Probably because I'm a coward, and need structure, the only difference is, like in Tahoe, I have a plan or plans covering a range of what I expect to encounter. I try to look at the assumptions behind the plan, whether indexes or not, cover betting, etc. How much money to take. How long I might be playing. What bankroll I'm gonna pretend I'm betting to lol. I try to answer every question I have. At least it gives me the hope it might actually make some sense.

Then I just do it, too scared to deviate (much anyway lol) from the plan.

So it's 100% or voodoo.

Having a max bet you won't even make? Not a plan. Have a plan for never playing less than +2, well then don't suddenly stick around and start betting +1's. If you were a team member would you do that? Or get a plan for it and do that. If the plan is for a $5 table don't use it for a $10 table. That's time for a new plan lol. Or, one of my favorite plans, "bet as much as you can in a good count."

There's little skill. Run a few sims, maybe alot, and then bet it. At least something close to it anyway lol.

Stray too far and you might just actually be a voodoo-counter like me lol.

Brave words. Perhaps unrealistic nonsense lol.

But going back to Tahoe in a month or so so I'm working on some non-voodoo plans lol. Maybe I'll alternate days of voodoo and non-voodoo in true Super AP fashion lol.

Funny stuff. Made me laugh.

 

[InPlay]

You must be one of those weird card-counters that for some really silly reason wasted his time taking a couple extra minutes to write down what happened each session/trip and actually keep an accurate log for 8 years, knows how much money he made, maybe even about how much he played.

You're my hero.

So, just because you might have a good chance of figuring out a reasonable guess to your question, it makes you successful in my book.

What else do you record besides dollars?

Used to keep results on w and l on sports betting but not into that anymore. Other then w and l for the year and my bank account thats it.

 

[Sonny]

I must have been just luckier than hell with my start to this…

After less than 40 hours of play your results could easily be 75-150 units above your expectation. With $50 units that would be a range of $3700-$7500 above (or below!) your average return. Even after 100 hours your range will still be very large. You probably won’t start seeing reliable results until about 400 hours, depending on how aggressively you are playing.

I wouldn't do this for $30-$50 an hour if thats what an avg. return is on 15k bankroll.

It all depends on how much risk you are willing to accept. You can make $100/hour with a $15k bankroll if you don’t mind a 44% chance of going broke. You might even be able to make $300/hour if you accept a 75% chance of going broke. My $30/hour assumes a safer 5-6% lifetime risk of ruin.

-Sonny-

 

[runningaces]

This would be the reason I've seen better than normal results, I have risked ( spreaded) more than whats called for in indices, since I'm not playing for a living I am more aggressive than the normal AP. My next trip I'm going to be raising my dollar amount for a single unit so I can spread even higher, hopefully this is not going to be the trip that sees a downturn. If so, I am playing with the casinos money this trip and that is why I'm raising the stakes.

 

[mjbballar23]

This would be the reason I've seen better than normal results, I have risked ( spreaded) more than whats called for in indices, since I'm not playing for a living I am more aggressive than the normal AP. My next trip I'm going to be raising my dollar amount for a single unit so I can spread even higher, hopefully this is not going to be the trip that sees a downturn. If so, I am playing with the casinos money this trip and that is why I'm raising the stakes.

Does anyone else think this is a scary post? Your never playing with the casinos money, its your money! what is your bankroll and what do you plan on making your new unit $?

 

[runningaces]

Does anyone else think this is a scary post? Your never playing with the casinos money, its your money! what is your bankroll and what do you plan on making your new unit $?

My bankroll is no more than 30k right now, thats a lttle less than what I've made since 2-1-08. My min. bet is ( single unit) is going to be $50 on some tables next go around, I'm going to spread up to $500.00 off of that ( maybe 450 no purple chips). I'm going to play even a lttle more aggressive than I had been. I understand I'm betting more than I should be according to my bankroll, that is why I've had a higher success rate compared to what I should be ahead according to sims. It also means I have a much higher chance of getting clobbered ( it just hasn't happened yet)

I'll give you an example of 1 session off my last trip. I buy in for 1k, I'm down to $450.00, min. bet 25$$ playing 2 spots, I have around a plus 8 count, I bet 225 each spot and lose, with 75-80 pen. I can see there is a lttle less than half the cards left with 2 other hands being played at my table( dbl deck) I stray away from rule of walking away because I now have around a plus 9 or 10 count it's been awhile, i grab $600 out of my pocket and bet it 300/spot, bang both winners, I stack it 600/spot the count is still plus 8 or 9 and bang a BJ and a 19 I believe, dealer gets like 17 or 18. So now I have 2700.00 and Im grabbing my black chips and not colooring up and gettin the hell out cuz ya theres some heat coming I know it, but I made it outta there without a tap.

I'm risking more than I should, I was trying to figure out why I'm winning more than I should according to most the vets on here, now I know why. I'm not going to change, I am going to swing for the fences when the count is high.

 

[Sonny]

Does anyone else think this is a scary post?

Yes, but as long as it’s the casino’s money it won’t be a surprise when it ends up back in their chip tray.

…I have risked ( spreaded) more than whats called for in indices

I don’t understand what that means. Indices are for playing decisions, not betting decisions. And wouldn’t using a bigger spread give you a bigger advantage and smaller risk? Do you mean overbetting instead of over-spreading?

My next trip I'm going to be raising my dollar amount for a single unit so I can spread even higher…

Increasing your unit size does not increase your spread. It increases your action but not your win rate. It also increases your risk. Now if you lower your unit size and keep the same max bet amount then you will have increased your spread, increased your win rate and decreased your risk. Wouldn’t that be a better idea?

…hopefully this is not going to be the trip that sees a downturn.

If you aren’t prepared for the inevitable downswing then you’re not going to last long. You can’t keep hoping for positive variance. That’s what gamblers do, and we’ve all seen how they end up. You've got to know what to expect and be ready to deal with it when it comes.

-Sonny-

 

[runningaces]

My bad Sonny, I do mean overbetting not spreading.

 

[runningaces]

Yes, but as long as it’s the casino’s money it won’t be a surprise when it ends up back in their chip tray.



Increasing your unit size does not increase your spread. It increases your action but not your win rate. It also increases your risk. Now if you lower your unit size and keep the same max bet amount then you will have increased your spread, increased your win rate and decreased your risk. Wouldn’t that be a better idea
-Sonny-

If I lower my unit size and keep the same max bet then of course that increases my chances ( no brainer) but it also increases the heat quite a bit. I can get away with that at certain places but not many.

 

[Sonny]

My bankroll is no more than 30k right now…My min. bet is ( single unit) is going to be $50 on some tables next go around, I'm going to spread up to $500.00 off of that

Actually, that’s not too far off. You’re pretty much betting full Kelly so your RoR is about 14%, although I’m not sure what kind of bet ramp you’re using. It sounds like you haven’t reached your max bet at a TC of +8 so I have to wonder how accurate your bets really are.

I understand I'm betting more than I should be according to my bankroll, that is why I've had a higher success rate compared to what I should be ahead according to sims.

But overbetting wouldn’t give you a higher success rate, it would give you a lower one because you have a higher chance of going broke.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

I am playing with the casinos money this trip and that is why I'm raising the stakes.
.

hey runningaces don't do that. overbet. we like you around here and would hate to see you suddenly stop posting. get with a plan that protects your assets. the 'casino' money that you now have in your possession is part of your assets. well at least 99% according to old wife's tales. :laugh:
spend you money wisely even if a product is high value. don't over pay for it.