Question for seasoned profitting Black Jack players (2 deck or 6 deck?)
- Thread starter kcchiefsfan1982
- Start date
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
I lost $170 my last outing....forgot to date it.DSchles said:
I did win $360 last night, so at least back in the black for the year...for the moment
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
Right...I hear you.gronbog said:
But, besides regular play, it has been a psychological battle too...I want to remember what got me to winning or losing that night. It does not change the math, but it is for me personally. I have played about 900 hours in my short career and am a break-even player.
Just raised my bet spread (3) sessions ago to change from playing a break-even game, hopefully. The dealers at my place are trained very well to play through 6.5 decks. There is not really any change from one dealer to the next at home field.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
Sorry, I am a little late to the discussion. I don't like this spread at all. First as Don said, the very first jump that they will see $10 to $50 is too big.
There should be like a $25 @ +1. A TC of +1, really is made up of the whole bucket from +1 to +2, so even for s17 shoe games, it is just slightly +EV (for the bucket) and ok to raise. More importantly it smooths out the ramp.
I also am not crazy about a spread that goes through 3 colors, like red, green, black and they will start paying you in black after a while, even if your $200 is made up of green. I guess you can ask them for green only, but then you amass a huge pile of green and THAT draws attention.
The other thing about inserting that $25 wager at +1 is from that point on you can move to the next level by just taking a winning hand and adding to the original bet. THAT is a very natural way of increasing.
I am going to offer a little tip based on what I do. You may choose not to do it, but I am just sharing. When you buy in, the pit comes over and records your buy-in. They also record your first hand or two wager. So for your spread, they are going to record $10. So if at anytime they come back and you are wagering $200....boom, they instantly know your spread. Even if you are only to the $100 level, they instantly know what you have spread so far.
So what if you make your first wager $25 just for the first round or two. That is what they will record. You can drop back down by the second or third hand and this won't have cost you much (pennies actually). So then they come by again and see you wagering $100 or $200 and they are not seeing that large spread because they recorded your first wager as $25, not $10.
Just something to think about.
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
I like that idea a lot, actually. Never thought about that. The $25 on the first two hands played.KewlJ said:
Also, yeah, I can start doing $25 on +1 counts. I will incorporate that.
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
I tested out the (2) $25 bets starting out last night...and I like it!!
From a purely emotional comment here...if I can break that $1,000 mark, it will be very emotional for me.
You have no idea how much of a wall I have been against to hit that...every time I get close, it has gone the opposite way.
I know, you all hate hearing this kind of talk. But, this is my reality.
Waiting to see the math come to fruition at some point. Emotions are real.
From a purely emotional comment here...if I can break that $1,000 mark, it will be very emotional for me.
You have no idea how much of a wall I have been against to hit that...every time I get close, it has gone the opposite way.
I know, you all hate hearing this kind of talk. But, this is my reality.
Waiting to see the math come to fruition at some point. Emotions are real.
gronbog
Well-Known Member
Where is that in your notes? I'm not being snide. That would be a more appropriate note than the ones you're taking.kcchiefsfan1982 said:
We hate hearing this kind of talk because it's a red flag. It's one thing to act appropriately emotional at the table but experiencing real emotions related to your short term results can be a dangerous thing. It can lead to one going on tilt. Being emotional about winning is just as dangerous as being that way about losses.kcchiefsfan1982 said:
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
After playing about 800 hours, I am not going to be fake. (650 of those hours were in 2019)gronbog said:
I do everything right, no matter what. Play like a robot w/ my bet spread, best strategy, and Illustrious 18 index, while wonging out at -2.
Now, playing with a larger bet spread to, hopefully, get away from a break-even game.
Everyone was new once. I hardly can imagine you were without strong emotion at the beginning.
When I first started (in 2019), I immediately made $2,100 and thought that is just how it works lol.
Then, I realized how it actually works.
Sure, I'll add a few things in notes, such as starting first (2) bets with $25, as well as which date I started with my new bet spread.
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kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
Going to take a break for a while. Ill get back to it in a month or so.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I have no problem with a player taking a break, if he feels he needs to, a luxury most full-time players don't have.
But there is something you should understand about results and even this small sample size of your results bares this out.
1.) the bigger winning and losing sessions are a direct result of what occurs with a relatively minor number of rounds, in which your max bet is played. You win the majority of these and you have a big winning session and likewise if you lose the majority, you have a big losing session. It really is that simple.
2.) better games and condition, like heads up play and/or deeply dealt games that produce more of these max bet opportunities will be the sessions that result in these big swings in both directions.
So while these conditions are what we all seek, because over the long run, you will win, in the short run, you can experience that bigger loss from losing these max bet opportunities.
Once you understand that and are properly bankrolled, you probably won't have that need to take a break, but again, if you feel you need a break, take one. Better than chasing losses, overbetting and just playing undisciplined.
But there is something you should understand about results and even this small sample size of your results bares this out.
1.) the bigger winning and losing sessions are a direct result of what occurs with a relatively minor number of rounds, in which your max bet is played. You win the majority of these and you have a big winning session and likewise if you lose the majority, you have a big losing session. It really is that simple.
2.) better games and condition, like heads up play and/or deeply dealt games that produce more of these max bet opportunities will be the sessions that result in these big swings in both directions.
So while these conditions are what we all seek, because over the long run, you will win, in the short run, you can experience that bigger loss from losing these max bet opportunities.
Once you understand that and are properly bankrolled, you probably won't have that need to take a break, but again, if you feel you need a break, take one. Better than chasing losses, overbetting and just playing undisciplined.
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
No. I'd be there right now!DSchles said:
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
Well, I am playing most days still. It did at least stop going in the wrong direction.
I'm very new to this larger spread. Sure hope I can play the rest of my life off this $5k bankroll.
I'll keep you updated periodically, not daily as I know that is extremely annoying and pointless lol
I'm very new to this larger spread. Sure hope I can play the rest of my life off this $5k bankroll.
I'll keep you updated periodically, not daily as I know that is extremely annoying and pointless lol
BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
When you play so few hands, anything could happen. Only when you play more than one million hands, your result is meaningful. Even one million hands may still be not enough.
gronbog
Well-Known Member
You don't need to get to 1 million hands to have meaningful results. You only need to get to 1 x N0 for an approximately 84% chance that your results are meaningful and 4 x N0 for an approximately ~98% chance. At 9 x N0, it's pretty much guaranteed that your results are meaningful.
KewlJ
Well-Known Member
I am in my 18th year of supporting myself from my blackjack play. So last year 2020, was my 17th year. (see the math I did with that?kcchiefsfan1982 said:
)So last year when casinos re-opened after the covid shutdown, I doubled my regular stakes, knowing that the pit would be busy with extra 'duties' and with masks and all, I could play higher stakes without additional heat. So wouldn't you know I immediately hit some pretty severe negative variance. Five figure losses, multiple days at the same property. This was much bigger losses and swing that I was used to and I started thinking all kinds of crazy thoughts. So my point is that even in my 17th year (at the time) a larger spread, and larger swings and variance can take some getting used to.
kcchiefsfan1982
Well-Known Member
Yeah, it is no fun (for me) to lose $2,000 of a $5,000 bank roll in two days. Well, I had expanded my bank roll to $6,200 before that hit. I have recouped $1,200 of the $2,000 loss since then.KewlJ said:I am in my 18th year of supporting myself from my blackjack play. So last year 2020, was my 17th year. (see the math I did with that?
So last year when casinos re-opened after the covid shutdown, I doubled my regular stakes, knowing that the pit would be busy with extra 'duties' and with masks and all, I could play higher stakes without additional heat. So wouldn't you know I immediately hit some pretty severe negative variance. Five figure losses, multiple days at the same property. This was much bigger losses and swing that I was used to and I started thinking all kinds of crazy thoughts. So my point is that even in my 17th year (at the time) a larger spread, and larger swings and variance can take some getting used to.
If I was new, that would be not terrible, psychologically.
However, I played (2) years, roughly 750 hours, playing a break-even game (thus, why I have raised my bet spread) so I am ready to see some fruits at some point for the hours I have put in