Question from a new guy

[BJfuturecounter]

First time poster here, with a story I’ll try to keep brief, and a question. After having quit playing BJ for years, I started playing again a couple of years ago at two Midwest casinos that deal primarily from 8-deck shoes but have otherwise pretty good rules -- about a 0.4% house edge. Although I play perfect basic strategy, I do not count -- I’ve practiced at home but just don’t seem to have the mindset to maintain an accurate count at the tables. Otherwise I’m a very patient player able to grind out long sessions, and I don’t buy into any of the usual ploppy myths. During this period, I estimate I have played about 70K hands and wagered about $3.5M. Based on the house edge and the fact that I also tip, I calculate that with all else being equal I should be in the hole about $26,000. But instead (and I keep very accurate records), I am nearly $10,000 in the black. I generally use a base bet of $25. My strategy, for what it’s worth, is to ride hot streaks, particularly in the second half of shoes, with a spread as high as 12x. Before you all scream, I am aware that in the absence of AP techniques, there should be no way to predict what is coming based on what has taken place. However, my question is this: Is it possible that I am identifying positive-count situations without actually counting? In other words, by simple observation of when conditions are favorable to players, could I level the field or gain even a partial advantage? Or have I just been lucky so far?

 

[Freightman]

First time poster here, with a story I’ll try to keep brief, and a question. After having quit playing BJ for years, I started playing again a couple of years ago at two Midwest casinos that deal primarily from 8-deck shoes but have otherwise pretty good rules -- about a 0.4% house edge. Although I play perfect basic strategy, I do not count -- I’ve practiced at home but just don’t seem to have the mindset to maintain an accurate count at the tables. Otherwise I’m a very patient player able to grind out long sessions, and I don’t buy into any of the usual ploppy myths. During this period, I estimate I have played about 70K hands and wagered about $3.5M. Based on the house edge and the fact that I also tip, I calculate that with all else being equal I should be in the hole about $26,000. But instead (and I keep very accurate records), I am nearly $10,000 in the black. I generally use a base bet of $25. My strategy, for what it’s worth, is to ride hot streaks, particularly in the second half of shoes, with a spread as high as 12x. Before you all scream, I am aware that in the absence of AP techniques, there should be no way to predict what is coming based on what has taken place. However, my question is this: Is it possible that I am identifying positive-count situations without actually counting? In other words, by simple observation of when conditions are favorable to players, could I level the field or gain even a partial advantage? Or have I just been lucky so far?

I don't think so - unless there is something you have not told us. Congratulations for being on the upside and for keeping meticulous records. Just because you don't count does not make you an automatic loser - this is simplyvarianc, and in this case, positive variance which is favoring you.

Suggest though that it may be an idea to learn some basic count a tleast - to help you to hold on to that 26000.

 

[Canceler]

Because sometimes it takes awhile...

I’ve practiced at home but just don’t seem to have the mindset to maintain an accurate count at the tables.

When you say this about "mindset" do you mean you so far haven't been able to keep the count in the casino environment and are still trying, or do you mean you've decided it's impossible for you to do?

Or have I just been lucky so far?

Yes.

 

[Southpaw]

My strategy, for what it’s worth, is to ride hot streaks, particularly in the second half of shoes, with a spread as high as 12x ... However, my question is this: Is it possible that I am identifying positive-count situations without actually counting?

You are playing a type of a positive progression. You are, therefore, placing your higher bets into counts that are on average slightly negative. You are raising your bets after you win, which will weakly correlate to when more 10s, As, and 9s come out of the shoe. After you win, the count will, on average, be slightly lower than the previous hand. Thus, your biggest bets are, on average, being placed into slightly negative counts. You are not identifying positive-count situations with this system.

A negative-progression, on the other hand, would have you placing your bigger bets into positive counts.

Both systems will lose money, though, over the long-run.

Spaw

 

[tthree]

A negative-progression, on the other hand, would have you placing your bigger bets into positive counts.

Spaw

Minor correction that is not semantic.
..., would be placing your bigger bets on a rising count. (on average)

This does nothing to indicate whether the count was positive or negative to begin with.

 

[creeping panther]

To ther OP

There are alot of reasons why you may be up, you play perfect basic, ride the streaks, watch the cards coming out of each round, positive progression etc,,but in the end you will lose.

This is not simple and there is alot more at play here than you are ever going to find out about on this board.

Sounds like you are having fun, should be getting great comps, you are up, so enjoy. In reality there are few straight counters who are making more than a poverty wage doing it.

Ya, that should have read "To the OP"

Keep on Keeping on:laugh:
CP

 

[BJfuturecounter]

Thanks.....

Thanks for all the helpful responses, especially the context regarding positive and negative progressions.

So, how much within normal variances is it for me to me up, without counting, after 70K hands? Seems like a lot of hands, but maybe not. In addition to the house edge, I tend to tip about $10/hr -- more when I'm making money. I don't mean to imply that it's been a smooth road -- I've had some BIG losses, but my winning sessions significantly outnumber losing sessions, and I'm very good at walking away after reaching a certain goal.

Creeping Panther, I am having fun -- well, most of the time -- and I am getting great comps, at least at one house. I don't know what OP means.

Canceler, I'm still working on counting, but I have found that it's much harder to put in to practice than I thought it would be, once I became proficient counting down decks at home. As soon as I sit down at a table, there are so many distractions -- chatty players and dealers, peering pit critters, and cute cocktail waitresses. I generally give up after about the third hand each shoe, and immediately the game seems more enjoyable.

 

[Canceler]

Canceler, I'm still working on counting, but I have found that it's much harder to put in to practice than I thought it would be...

That was my experience, too. Keep trying. Eventually you will be able to do it. Eventually it will seem almost effortless.

 

[jaygruden]

Canceler, I'm still working on counting, but I have found that it's much harder to put in to practice than I thought it would be, once I became proficient counting down decks at home. As soon as I sit down at a table, there are so many distractions -- chatty players and dealers, peering pit critters, and cute cocktail waitresses. I generally give up after about the third hand each shoe, and immediately the game seems more enjoyable.

What count are you trying to use? I would recommend a simple level one count like Hi/Lo....better yet use an unbalanced count for shoe games like KO or easier yet REKO where you don't even need to calculate TC.

 

[sagefr0g]

..... However, my question is this: Is it possible that I am identifying positive-count situations without actually counting? In other words, by simple observation of when conditions are favorable to players, could I level the field or gain even a partial advantage? Or have I just been lucky so far?

it would be very difficult with an eight deck shoe, far as i can reckon, easier with double deck.
but yes, could be possible, especially if you have a good understanding of what constitutes an advantage, far as shoe states is concerned.
the big problem i've found, far as just using simple observation, is that one gets 'lost' with respect to just what is what, lol. this problem doesn't arise when counting, long as you don't forget the count.
imho, it's good that you are keeping your stat's and knowing just where you stand, with respect to where the math 'says' you should be.
errhhh, must be some good rules for an eight deck game to only hold a 0.40 edge over you.

 

[BJfuturecounter]

Jaygruden, I have been trying Hi-Lo because it seemed like the easiest. Just keeping an accurate running count is harder for me than calculating the TC.

Sage, at one casino I play, because late surrender if offered, the house edge is 0.39; at the other, it's 0.47, per the calculator on this site.