Question re: a BJ "Promo(tion)"

[tthree]

Thanks for the advice Flash.
Since the Match Play coupon is basically worth half of its face value,
shouldn't the win frequency you use for surrender be 33.3%?
If so, it appears you should surrender 12 thru 17 vs 9, 10 or A,
surrender 14 thru 17 v 8,
surrender 15-16 v 7, and
surrender 6 v 10.

Your aggregate bet is the match play and the coupon which wins 2x but you are surrendering x/2 AND DON"T LOSE THE COUPON.

I thin flash got it right.

 

[mikeyd]

Your aggregate bet is the match play and the coupon which wins 2x but you are surrendering x/2 AND DON"T LOSE THE COUPON.

I thin flash got it right.

Let's say I have 8 $25 chips (total $200) & 8 $25 match play coupons (value $100 at 50% of face value).
Thus I start with total assets of $300.
Then I play 8 hands, each with 1 $25 chip & 1 match play coupon.
If I win 3 hands (37.5% win frequency), I wind up with $225 in chips & no match play coupons. (EV -.25)
If I surrender all 8 hands, I wind up with $100 in chips & still have all 8 match play coupons. I now have total assets $200. (EV -.33)
Why is this $200 not the same as the $225 if 37.5% is the right win frequency?

Alternatively, let's say I start with 3 $25 chips & 3 $25 match play coupons (value $37.50 at 50% of face value).
Thus I start with total assets of $112.50.
Then I play 3 hands, each with 1 $25 chip $ 1 $25 match play coupon.
If I win 1 hand (33.3% win frequency), I wind up with $75 in chips & no match play coupons. (EV -.33)
If I surrender all 3 hands, I wind up with $37.50 in chips & still have all 3 match play coupons, total value $75, (EV -.33)
same as if I had won 1 out of 3 hands.

Let me know if you think this makes sense, or if not, please help me understand.

 

[tthree]

Check your math

Let's say I have 8 $25 chips (total $200) & 8 $25 match play coupons (value $100 at 50% of face value).
Thus I start with total assets of $300.
Then I play 8 hands, each with 1 $25 chip & 1 match play coupon.
If I win 3 hands (37.5% win frequency), I wind up with $225 in chips & no match play coupons. (EV -.25)
If I surrender all 8 hands, I wind up with $100 in chips & still have all 8 match play coupons. I now have total assets $200. (EV -.33)
Why is this $200 not the same as the $225 if 37.5% is the right win frequency?

Alternatively, let's say I start with 3 $25 chips & 3 $25 match play coupons (value $37.50 at 50% of face value).
Thus I start with total assets of $112.50.
Then I play 3 hands, each with 1 $25 chip $ 1 $25 match play coupon.
If I win 1 hand (33.3% win frequency), I wind up with $75 in chips & no match play coupons. (EV -.33)
If I surrender all 3 hands, I wind up with $37.50 in chips & still have all 3 match play coupons, total value $75, (EV -.33)
same as if I had won 1 out of 3 hands.

Let me know if you think this makes sense, or if not, please help me understand.

But if you surrender all those hands and only play very strong match ups the coupon will return more than the 50% you value it at on average. I think I am right about that but I don't know how to quantify without extensive calculations. If the 8 coupons in the first example return $125 (62.5%) on average rather than $100 (50%) you value it that is the equivalent situation. The 50% value is if it is treated like money on surrender. It is not. It is treated as no bet so it is in fact only played on hands with a win rate greater than 37.5%. If I got back my bet every hand I would lose more than 62.5% on average I would have a substantial advantage. Therefore you can't value the coupon at 50%.

 

[mikeyd]

But if you surrender all those hands and only play very strong match ups the coupon will return more than the 50% you value it at on average. I think I am right about that but I don't know how to quantify without extensive calculations. If the 8 coupons in the first example return $125 (62.5%) on average rather than $100 (50%) you value it that is the equivalent situation. The 50% value is if it is treated like money on surrender. It is not. It is treated as no bet so it is in fact only played on hands with a win rate greater than 37.5%. If I got back my bet every hand I would lose more than 62.5% on average I would have a substantial advantage. Therefore you can't value the coupon at 50%.

Makes sense what you are saying that coupon could be worth
more than 50%. But what makes it worth exactly 62.5%?
Why not 55%, or 51%, or any other % greater than 50?
Also, note that coupon does not pay 3:2 on BJ.

 

[tthree]

Makes sense what you are saying that coupon could be worth
more than 50%. But what makes it worth exactly 62.5%?
Why not 55%, or 51%, or any other % greater than 50?
Also, note that coupon does not pay 3:2 on BJ.

Most places pay 3:2 for BJ on the coupon. When I played the promo that inspired the OP I never got a BJ with the coupon. I said I didn't want to put in the effort to quantify the value of the coupon. I sited 62.5% only as the pivot point for your equations. You would play 100 out of 160 negative equity hand match ups. Most of the ones you play are low frequency hands like pairs, hands were your 2 cards along with the dealer upcard are all low cards and soft hands. You would surrender almost every hand against a T which are extremely high frequency match ups. Combine this with the hands eliminated are your large negative equity and the hands you play have small negative equity. The result is elimination of most of your high frequency and all your high negative equity match ups.

Blackjack appendix 5 on the Wizard Of Odds site has the equity of all hand match ups. I used equity of -.25 as the cut off (.625 - .375 = .25)