Quick Percentage Question:

[SuitedAces]

So I could probably find this info some math site, but I'm lazy and I figure someone here is good enough to tell me:

What are the percentage odds of the dealer busting with 15 or 16 when the True Count is exactly 2.000? I wouldn't think the exact cards matter, but if they do assume 5/10 and 6/10 (no 7/9 or 6/9 etc.) Thanks.

 

[Harman]

Well, this is a simple one. You take the 2 cards (6,10) and add them to 2, which is 18. Then you divide 18 by the true count, which equals 9, take this 9 and add to it the numer of blackjacks the person next to you got in the last shoe. Your answer should be X. Now take X and add to it the square route of your first number - 18. So X + 4.24. Now, ignore this and buy a decent blakjack book and work it out yourself :joker:

 

[QFIT]

So I could probably find this info some math site, but I'm lazy and I figure someone here is good enough to tell me:

What are the percentage odds of the dealer busting with 15 or 16 when the True Count is exactly 2.000? I wouldn't think the exact cards matter, but if they do assume 5/10 and 6/10 (no 7/9 or 6/9 etc.) Thanks.

The TC is hardly ever exactly 2.000.

 

[Canceler]

What difference does it make?

And why ignore all the other possible outcomes of the hand?

 

[Brock Windsor]

So I could probably find this info some math site, but I'm lazy and I figure someone here is good enough to tell me:

What are the percentage odds of the dealer busting with 15 or 16 when the True Count is exactly 2.000? I wouldn't think the exact cards matter, but if they do assume 5/10 and 6/10 (no 7/9 or 6/9 etc.) Thanks.

The short answer is about 60%. If you want a True Count accurate to the third decimal than of course the exact cards that have been removed matter, as does knowing if this is an H17 or S17 game. With what counting method was your 2.0 TC arrived at? For a rough example: Assuming a single deck S17 game, heads up, first round just dealt, your cards are a 4&5 and the dealer cards are a 10&6 you get your TC of 2 using HiLo. The dealer has a 30 in 48 chance of busting his 16 (62.5%). If the dealer cards are a 10 & 5 you get a 61% chance of busting his 15. (27/48 + 1/12*27/47). If the 15 were composed of a 7&8 you would have (26/48+1/12*26/47) chance or 58.8% of busting the 15. This was a simple example but you can imagine over many hands and in a multiple deck game how the composition of your hands can vary the result somewhat....and to be more precise the TC I used was 2.174 and not 2.000 like you wanted. If you really want to split hairs to the third decimal you need more specific input.
BW

 

[callipygian]

What are the percentage odds of the dealer busting with 15 or 16 when the True Count is exactly 2.000? I wouldn't think the exact cards matter, but if they do assume 5/10 and 6/10 (no 7/9 or 6/9 etc.) Thanks.

Exact cards do matter.

A 6 will bust a 16. So it matters if your TC+2 is composed of 345's or 3456's.

 

[EyeHeartHalves]

This is yet another reason to use Halves.

I'm not as cold (& funny) as Harmen or as patient as Brock Windsor. I don't really know nor care what the chances are. However, I am confident that THE PROPORTION OF FIVES LEFT IN THE SHOE WOULD MATTER A GREAT DEAL. I count fives differently than the other cards. As they are leaving the shoe, I value at one and a half times as much as a 3, 4 or 6 and three times as much as a two. This 15/16 scenario is the main reason for doing so. (So, you know I just had to chime in on this one.)

Like I said, I don't have the patience to answer your question but I can figure out which hand I'd rather be a part of. All other information aside, except to asume that I haven't busted, my Halves TC is 2.000, one dealer has T,5 and another has T,6--I'd rather have my money up against the dealer with a 15.

 

[Harman]

I'm not as cold (& funny) as Harmen .

I'm not cold, I just try to make myself popular by mocking others

Sorry SuitedAces, I was in a bad mood, no hard feelings??? :joker:

 

[GeorgeD]

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2.html

The Wiz shows dealer but probability on a 16 at 0.420823 at a neutral count.

At +2 I guess it's a little higher. How much depends on number of decks. If, however, the guy on 3rd base hits his 12, the dealer is sure to get a 5
:=)

 

[BJScott]

gotta love the Wiz baby!

Did some great bonus whoring thanks to that guy!

 

[sagefr0g]

So I could probably find this info some math site, but I'm lazy and I figure someone here is good enough to tell me:

What are the percentage odds of the dealer busting with 15 or 16 when the True Count is exactly 2.000? I wouldn't think the exact cards matter, but if they do assume 5/10 and 6/10 (no 7/9 or 6/9 etc.) Thanks.

the exact cards have a affect.....
note for examples the two dealer 15 scenerio's one where an Ace is gone, one where the Ace's are all still in the pack. same for the two dealer 16 scenerio's

 

[SuitedAces]

Okay. Perhaps I was remiss in making my initial question so short. I think forgetting to include that the dealer's face up card was either 5 or 6 with the down card being 10 in each case was probably not smart. Let me address each response individually:

Harman:

QFIT: I'm aware of this. However, it's relatively easy to figure out when the TC is above or below 2 (and since the neutral probability is listed in pretty much every book on the planet, it's not hard to do some rough comparing). This question was simply based on trying to determine how adverse my variance was in a particular session when the dealer made 21 on four out of five hands showing either a 5 or a 6.

Canceller: See above.

Brock Windsor: I should have been more explicit. Using simple Hi-Lo: 8D, S17, heads up, and the TC is 2 after the cards have been dealt. If, in this case, I still need the exact number of every card dealt, don't worry about it. The 60% is close enough for my purposes anyway.

EyeHeartHalves: Well yeah, fives matter in the long run. But when I'm playing 8D with Hi-Lo (which is what I use), and the RC is 10 w/ 5 decks left (I'm purposely leaving out the casino rules factor here so I don't have to figure out the exact number of decks needed to bring the TC to 2), the number of fives left doesn't factor into my variance calculations.

Harman II: None at all.

Sagefr0g: The program looks great...freeware? I'd love something like that to figure out exact EV calculations like PokerStove does for Hold'em. In this particular situation, I guess that however many cards have been dealt, the number of aces dealt is 20% of the total number of -1 value cards dealt (Hi-Lo).

Thanks for all the flak, guys.

 

[sagefr0g]

.......Sagefr0g: The program looks great...freeware? I'd love something like that to figure out exact EV calculations like PokerStove does for Hold'em.......

here ya go SuitedAces :
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=9752
Blackjack Game and Probability Computer from our very own k_c a frequent poster on Blackjackinfo.com. :1st:

just wondering how your doing these variance calcultations?

 

[SuitedAces]

just wondering how your doing these variance calcultations?

I don't do a whole ton of math when it comes to variance...basically, I want to know the expected return for the situation above, and compare it to my actual return.

In the case I mentioned, I had five major hands and lost four of them:
- Two 18-unit hands vs. a 6,
- 20 unit vs. a 5,
- 21 unit vs. a 5,
- 24 unit vs. a 6

I lost all but the 24 unit hand, and at the time of the post I was pretty annoyed so I wanted to know how bad the variance for that actually was. Based on the numbers you showed me, it looks like I'm supposed to win 3/5 there instead of 1/5 (for clarification, I was spreading 6 hands...four times the dealer beat every hand, the other time I won every hand).

My variance calculations aren't mathematical, and in fact carry no relevance in affecting future play, I was just steaming and wanted to know how bad it was lol.