Sonny
Well-Known Member
Better penetration
> I'm not math maven, but I would think the decrease in shuffling would result
> in a fairly substantial number of extra hands during a busy shift. I don't
> think counters could conunteract this, not enough of them.
You're exactly right. EVERYONE at the tables THINKS that they know how to play perfectly. You would be AMAZED at the number of people who THINK they can count cards. Many of people at the blackjack tables have read the books and understand how a counting system works, but they simply can't do it.
Maybe they read Jerry Patterson's work, which teaches card counting and shuffle tracking but then veers off into the "new pathway" of dealer-biases and progression betting. From there they may become aware of John Patrick's work (who's early books also advocate card counting but quickly go astray) or Bobby Singer or any of the other con men. There poor players never have a chance!
Of maybe they read about the MIT team or Ken Uston, then practice Hi-Low for a few hours and rush off to the casino. They may get off to a lucky start, but they simply don't have the skill to get the advantage.
Other times they practice for months and get very good at counting but then play in terrible games. Their skills are adequate but they will still not get any real advantage. I don't know of any blackjack book that talks about SF21, 6:5 blackjack or "fake DD" games anywhere.
Many of the few remaining counters that do learn the skills and play good games still don't understand proper bankroll management or bet sizing. They may play with a minimal bet spread that doesn't give them an advantage in the multi-deck games. Or perhaps they don't understand the crucial concept of risk-of-ruin. These players will be playing with an advantage but they will still go broke eventually because of simple variance.
When the casino trolls see huge message boards like this filled with players who know a lot about beating the game they get nervous. But in reality, there are not this many people wo are successful counters. Click on the "View User Profiles" link above. You will certainly recognize several of those names as good players, but the majority of those profiles are people who don't even post here. Some of them are "lurkers" who are learning from our discussions without asking any questions, but most of them are people who went broke or gave up on blackjack. The casualties in this game are enormous. Next time you Wong into a hot shoe, think about the players who were there for that negative run a few minutes ago. Chances are they were once a "Mikey Vegas" or a "KO Counter" (No offense to those players, I was just picking names at random).
The list of active APs is actually faily small compared to the list of "wanna be" counters or "think-I-can" counters. The casinos won't be going out of business anytime soon regardless of their penetration.
-Sonny-
> I'm not math maven, but I would think the decrease in shuffling would result
> in a fairly substantial number of extra hands during a busy shift. I don't
> think counters could conunteract this, not enough of them.
You're exactly right. EVERYONE at the tables THINKS that they know how to play perfectly. You would be AMAZED at the number of people who THINK they can count cards. Many of people at the blackjack tables have read the books and understand how a counting system works, but they simply can't do it.
Maybe they read Jerry Patterson's work, which teaches card counting and shuffle tracking but then veers off into the "new pathway" of dealer-biases and progression betting. From there they may become aware of John Patrick's work (who's early books also advocate card counting but quickly go astray) or Bobby Singer or any of the other con men. There poor players never have a chance!
Of maybe they read about the MIT team or Ken Uston, then practice Hi-Low for a few hours and rush off to the casino. They may get off to a lucky start, but they simply don't have the skill to get the advantage.
Other times they practice for months and get very good at counting but then play in terrible games. Their skills are adequate but they will still not get any real advantage. I don't know of any blackjack book that talks about SF21, 6:5 blackjack or "fake DD" games anywhere.
Many of the few remaining counters that do learn the skills and play good games still don't understand proper bankroll management or bet sizing. They may play with a minimal bet spread that doesn't give them an advantage in the multi-deck games. Or perhaps they don't understand the crucial concept of risk-of-ruin. These players will be playing with an advantage but they will still go broke eventually because of simple variance.
When the casino trolls see huge message boards like this filled with players who know a lot about beating the game they get nervous. But in reality, there are not this many people wo are successful counters. Click on the "View User Profiles" link above. You will certainly recognize several of those names as good players, but the majority of those profiles are people who don't even post here. Some of them are "lurkers" who are learning from our discussions without asking any questions, but most of them are people who went broke or gave up on blackjack. The casualties in this game are enormous. Next time you Wong into a hot shoe, think about the players who were there for that negative run a few minutes ago. Chances are they were once a "Mikey Vegas" or a "KO Counter" (No offense to those players, I was just picking names at random).
The list of active APs is actually faily small compared to the list of "wanna be" counters or "think-I-can" counters. The casinos won't be going out of business anytime soon regardless of their penetration.
-Sonny-