Roulette AP?

[callipygian]

I didn't know that bit about the opposite numbers add to 37. It is an interesting fact if it is true.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette

0-28-9-26-30-11-7-20-32-17-5-22-34-15-3-24-36-13-1-
00-27-10-25-29-12-8-19-31-18-6-21-33-16-4-23-35-14-2

It looks like I'm wrong. Numbers adding up to 37 are spaced two squares away from one another. But the opposite numbers are close in value.

At any rate, the main point is that the numbering is not random.

If you knew that there was a 1/2 chance that the ball would land on 1 of 10 numbers, then each of those numbers has a 1/20 chance of coming up.

But if you bet them all, then you have a 1/2 chance of hitting a single number (+35 for the one that hit, -9 for the nine that didn't = +26 overall) and a 1/2 chance of being totally wrong (in which case all ten don't hit).

Only problem is that the average person won't be able to practice from home and there still seems to be a lot of guess work in eliminating those 3 numbers.

And the number of spins it would take to mathematically prove that you're not just lucky in guessing correctly.

Along with the dice control in craps, this is just another "mathematically possible but practically impossible" scenario.

 

[QFIT]

Along with the dice control in craps, this is just another "mathematically possible but practically impossible" scenario.

There is a large difference between dice-control and roulette prediction. First, two dice are thrown and tumble in three dimensions against a three dimensional diamond pattern wall. The Roulette ball is thrown in one dimension. The dice take an unpredictable path through the air at an unpredictable speed. The Roulette ball takes a completely predictable path and deceleration rate through most of its journey hitting obstacles at nearly the exact speed every throw thanks to centripetal force. Of course there is unpredictability due to the ball hitting ball stops and frets. But this is trivial compared to dice. And finally, you can place a bet at Roulette long after the ball has been thrown.

 

[aslan]

There is a large difference between dice-control and roulette prediction. First, two dice are thrown and tumble in three dimensions against a three dimensional diamond pattern wall. The Roulette ball is thrown in one dimension. The dice take an unpredictable path through the air at an unpredictable speed. The Roulette ball takes a completely predictable path and deceleration rate through most of its journey hitting obstacles at nearly the exact speed every throw thanks to centripetal force. Of course there is unpredictability due to the ball hitting ball stops and frets. But this is trivial compared to dice. And finally, you can place a bet at Roulette long after the ball has been thrown.

However.......with dice do not underestimate the ability of some gifted persons through thousands of hours practice to toss them with virtually the same speed, trajectory, spin, etc, so as to reliably influence them against landing on a seven. You have been to the circus. You have seen incredible feats of daring and near impossibility before your very eyes. What is it? Practice, practice, practice, and then, more practice....until the impossible becomes not only possible, but common, every day occurrence.

And the beauty of dice is that you, the player, participate in the toss, unlike roulette where there is no variable under your control....only the opportunity to predict and bet accordingly. By your participation, the edge can be improved by your increasing proficiency.

 

[QFIT]

However.......with dice do not underestimate the ability of some gifted persons through thousands of hours practice to toss them with virtually the same speed, trajectory, spin, etc, so as to reliably influence them against landing on a seven. You have been to the circus. You have seen incredible feats of daring and near impossibility before your very eyes. What is it? Practice, practice, practice, and then, more practice....until the impossible becomes not only possible, but common, every day occurrence.

And the beauty of dice is that you, the player, participate in the toss, unlike roulette where there is no variable under your control....only the opportunity to predict and bet accordingly. By your participation, the edge can be improved by your increasing proficiency.

Having read the years of discussions on Wong's forum, I don't believe it.

 

[aslan]

Having read the years of discussions on Wong's forum, I don't believe it.

Thanks for the advice. Is there anything in particular that turned you off to this alleged AP? In other words, I do take your word for it, but would you mind sharing a more detailed glimpse through your eyes that soured you on the DC claim? Would you be of the same opinion if the house did not require the dice to bounce off the pyramids--that is, if the dice could just roll on the table surface?

 

[Chapel]

Oh, I see, different strategies on dependent bets would give a different casino edge. I made the mistake of assuming they were independent.

I think yours has a lower variance/ROR which could make it more attractive.

And the number of spins it would take to mathematically prove that you're not just lucky in guessing correctly.

Along with the dice control in craps, this is just another "mathematically possible but practically impossible" scenario.

It wouldn't take an impossibly huge amount of spins to determine how good you were. A few thousand could give you within 5% pretty easily so you would know if your ability gave you a huge advantage or not.

 

[QFIT]

Thanks for the advice. Is there anything in particular that turned you off to this alleged AP? In other words, I do take your word for it, but would you mind sharing a more detailed glimpse through your eyes that soured you on the DC claim?

1. Wong started pre-sellling the book before he had any results. We're off to a bad start.
2. When he did obtain results, they were sometimes expressed in gambler's logic. For example, he would get good results for a small sample but bad for a larger sample and conclude that short samples were better This is exactly what progression system players claim and stands statistics on its head.
3. Pretty much everybody that has tried it has quit due to disappointing results. This includes DD' who is one of the top APs alive.
4. The forum now has posters from Scoblete's group that clearly push voodoo gambling stuff like money management.
5. Most threads are now started by Wong himself as the interest from APs has waned.

Would you be of the same opinion if the house did not require the dice to bounce off the pyramids--that is, if the dice could just roll on the table surface?

Obviously if you don't hit the back wall we are talking about a totally different game. That's why you are forced to hit the back wall. Just do a dead cat throw before the wall.

As any biker can tell you, centripetal force is very powerful. You can ride a motorcycle at 70mph, take your hands off the handlebars and bang one of the bars with your hand. The bike will dip slightly and snap back upright. The centripetal force created by two wheels spinning at 70MPH makes it difficult to substantially alter the plane in which the bike travels. (It also keeps ocean liners steady.) However, you must watch the ground carefully. Hit a rock and you instantly alter the angle of the front wheel. As a result, the bike will flip about wildly as the momentum of the bike and rear wheel fight against the front wheel's altered plane and the front wheel will snap back and forth over-correcting for the imbalance. The bike will tear itself up (he says remembering every tenth of a second of an accident in his early days of biking.) The control you have over a die after it has left your hand is momentum. IMO when the die hits the back wall, that control is gone just as control over a bike is gone when you instantly disturb the momentum. All you can do is wait for the chaos to end and see the result. Which takes a lot less time with a pair of dice than a bike traveling 70MPH.

The contents of this post are my opinion -- and not to be tried in your home.

 

[aslan]

1. Wong started pre-sellling the book before he had any results. We're off to a bad start.
2. When he did obtain results, they were sometimes expressed in gambler's logic. For example, he would get good results for a small sample but bad for a larger sample and conclude that short samples were better This is exactly what progression system players claim and stands statistics on its head.
3. Pretty much everybody that has tried it has quit due to disappointing results. This includes DD' who is one of the top APs alive.
4. The forum now has posters from Scoblete's group that clearly push voodoo gambling stuff like money management.
5. Most threads are now started by Wong himself as the interest from APs has waned.



Obviously if you don't hit the back wall we are talking about a totally different game. That's why you are forced to hit the back wall. Just do a dead cat throw before the wall.

As any biker can tell you, centripetal force is very powerful. You can ride a motorcycle at 70mph, take your hands off the handlebars and bang one of the bars with your hand. The bike will dip slightly and snap back upright. The centripetal force created by two wheels spinning at 70MPH makes it difficult to substantially alter the plane in which the bike travels. (It also keeps ocean liners steady.) However, you must watch the ground carefully. Hit a rock and you instantly alter the angle of the front wheel. As a result, the bike will flip about wildly as the momentum of the bike and rear wheel fight against the front wheel's altered plane and the front wheel will snap back and forth over-correcting for the imbalance. The bike will tear itself up (he says remembering every tenth of a second of an accident in his early days of biking.) The control you have over a die after it has left your hand is momentum. IMO when the die hits the back wall, that control is gone just as control over a bike is gone when you instantly disturb the momentum. All you can do is wait for the chaos to end and see the result. Which takes a lot less time with a pair of dice than a bike traveling 70MPH.

The contents of this post are my opinion -- and not to be tried in your home.

Thanks. What you say makes sense to me.

I was talking to a friend who was around when Archie Karas had his fabulous run at Binion's in the early '90s. He said that Archie was a DC expert and that he was allowed to roll the dice without hitting the back wall in those days. Binion figured it out, padded underneath the felt with a material that was extremely bouncy, and got his millions back and more before a few years had passed.

I don't know. I wasn't around the crap tables in the early '90s, but I do know you can't get away with it now.

 

[moo321]

Well, if you're not hitting the back wall, I'll concede that it's possible to win. But otherwise, it's either impossible, or so close that I'm not gonna waste my time on it.

 

[Sonny]

As any biker can tell you, centripetal force is very powerful. You can ride a motorcycle at 70mph, take your hands off the handlebars and bang one of the bars with your hand. The bike will dip slightly and snap back upright.

It sounds like you're speaking from experience. Perhaps there's a side of you we don't know about? :grin:

-Sonny-

 

[QFIT]

It sounds like you're speaking from experience. Perhaps there's a side of you we don't know about? :grin:

-Sonny-

Two BMW cruisers, a Harley Stupid-Glide and three Italian mid-engine cars. But that was my youth. I own no vehicles now.

 

[callipygian]

Well, if you're not hitting the back wall, I'll concede that it's possible to win.

If you're an attractive female, you can hit the stickman and convince them to let it count.

Even without the boobies, you can get away with light tapping against the back wall - the 2-3" of flat mirror underneath the bumps counts, and a lot of people who roll low & flat don't hit the bumps at all.