SCORE minimums

[branmuffin]

Is there a minimum SCORE for all game conditions where you advise wonging to cut the mustard?
Poor/fair penetration normal rules in (SD) DD and 6D's.
I seem to come up w/SCORES of 13-20 in games we/ve discussed using CasinoVerite EV Calculator.

If you have an EV of +0.60%/0.80% in poor/fair penetration in 2D(1-6 spread) and 6D(1-12)..I am guessing at an average betsize of $20.00x 75 hands per hour equaling $1500 in action per hour thus >>$9-12 per hour.In 500 hours I should be able to make 5K doubling BR.
I guess I could try a 10k/15K BR w/$25 units but I dont want to risk more than a 5K BR for investigative purposes ..I am willing to grind out 5K BR at minimum wage then hopefully move up to 10k/15k BR.
This is being realistic with realistic crap game conditions

Why do you need to Wong??

Are these EV assumptions off the top ..spread around BJ literature unrealistic?

I understand your advice may be for the short BR on short hours..to limit SD and up EV .But if I play at 95%ROR 5K BR and stay with my units ($10)..very disciplined and play 500 hours..why would wonging be necessary??
Obviously I understand wonging lowers SD increases EV but I am interested in playing hours and PLAYALL(except for your recommended exit on TC=-2 or worse).
My goal is to take a 5K BR($10 units) to a 10K/15k BR($25units)??
Thnx for the help
Your expertise in this subject is obvious.I would guess you have spent thousands of hours thinking about BJ at your expert level.I hope you stay around .My guess is you have been blacklisted ..how do you manage to still play?
Thnx Lee

 

[zengrifter]

Re: SCORE **Responses -

**Responses -

Is there a minimum SCORE for all game conditions where you advise wonging to cut the mustard? Poor/fair penetration normal rules in (SD) DD and 6D's.
I seem to come up w/SCORES of 13-20 in games we/ve discussed using CasinoVerite EV Calculator.

**The main reason for your LOW SCORES is your INSUFICIENT SPREADS

If you have an EV of +0.60%/0.80% in poor/fair penetration in 2D(1-6 spread)...

**Then you need to INCREASE SPREAD to 1-9 (or 2x6)

and 6D(1-12)...

**Increase spread to 1-2x12 (min) -OR- decrease spread to 1-8 AND WONG. Remember, the next best thing to wonging in is wonging OUT... and the ultimate is to wong in and out while staying at the same table.

I am guessing at an average betsize of $20.00x 75 hands per hour equaling $1500 in action per hour thus >>$9-12 per hour.In 500 hours I should be able to make 5K doubling BR.

**Multiple choice ques- You can increase that $/hr by - a)increasing your spread, b)decreasing your BR's contact w/-counts, c)increasing your playing speed and #hands per hour, d)increasing your i#

I guess I could try a 10k/15K BR w/$25 units but I dont want to risk more than a 5K BR for investigative purposes ..I am willing to grind out 5K BR at minimum wage then hopefully move up to 10k/15k BR.

**If you drill hard first and you KNOW that your game is solid, AND THE MONETARY IS IMPORTANT TO YOU (maybe its not), move to quarters whether solo or as a joint venture.

This is being realistic with realistic crap game conditions

**The only difference between crap games and choice, is that crap games require a bigger spread and a bigger BR to offset a bigger variance, the EV should still be the same acceptable minimum of say 60?

Are these EV assumptions off the top ..spread around BJ literature unrealistic?

**No, assuming accurate play.

I understand your advice may be for the short BR on short hours..to limit SD and up EV .But if I play at 95%ROR 5K BR and stay with my units ($10)..very disciplined and play 500 hours..why would wonging be necessary??

**$10u w/$5k sounds right, still wong-out as often as possible and necessary, and use a bigger spread at 2D, for starters.

Obviously I understand wonging lowers SD increases EV but I am interested in playing hours and PLAYALL(except for your recommended exit on TC=-2 or worse).

**For std hiLo count the optimum shoe exit is more like -1.4 TC (approx)

My goal is to take a 5K BR($10 units) to a 10K/15k BR($25units)??
Thnx for the help

**Be aggressive and cunning, take no prisoners, and don't think that you can just sit down and play because they don't want to play with you! You are, as a counter, more like the pool-hustler who no one would play for money with if they knew.

My guess is you have been blacklisted ..how do you manage to still play?

**I don't take the barrings too seriously or personally, and its a much bigger sea now then 20yrs ago. zg

 

[branmuffin]

Re: SCORE **Responses -

this thread and prior dozen are great stuff > I am printing all this info.in case a pacific tsunami hits santabarbara tommorrow and wipes out the server..
My guess is this experience you are kind enought to share is hard-earned.thanx for invaluable assistance..back to printing.
cheers Lee

 

[kansas]

Why Wong?

EV maximation and lowering SD.

Yes, your EV figures are correct for play-all, but consider this:

How are you going to feel if you are 'unlucky' and wind up on the negative SD side of the curve? What if after your $5000 and 500 hours of play (500 hours of play is going to take you how many months?), you wind up a whole $1.92 ahead?

500 hrs for $1.92 is how much profit per hour?

Remember your EV numbers are 'in the long run', your mileage will vary.

By wonging, you reduce variance and increase EV, you are more likely to achieve a better profit number quicker.

 

[branmuffin]

Re: Why Wong?

I plan to play 500 hours in 3 months..I may have to hit the road to spread my action round.
You are definetly right i understand what you are saying.
Not only are you right but I went back to bjstats bankroll calculator and did some double-checking:

To double a 5K BR to a 10K BR over 50,000(500 hours)hands ...to get to that 10K BR your initial 5K BR has ROR of 66%...1/3 of the time you bust out or you make a measly $10 per hour...this is assuming the sd and winrate per 100 hands are correct assumptions.

To have a ROR of 90% I need $7305 to get to that $10K...still a 1/10 chance of biting the big one.This would yield a whopping $5.39 per hour.

ROR of 95% requires a starting BK of $8140 to get to that $10K..a 1/20 chance which is more in my grinder/murphy's law mentality again a whopping $3.72 per hour.
These are worsecase scenarios but still puts things in the persrpective you refer to.
No wander bj experts say save a bigger a BR and then give it a shot..

I am going to do it this way because i have time to burn,plenty of real money in the bank and I need the experince most of all.
For a 50% ROR I only need a BR of$ 3855..more realistic and $12.29 per hour.PS if I really push myself i could play 60 hours a week with good cover...rest and exercice...thats only 2 months.
Damn those are crappy hourly averages.I need to build up BR legitimately thru play of the game and get up to 10k-15K/25K BR..to make decent horly rate.

I know that I am only approaching this from this one angle :ROR ...but thats the way I want to do it..I always plan for worstcase scenario when it comes to grinding out any game whether it be poker or bj.

 

[Biff]

Re: Why Wong?

Looks like we are off to the same adventure, increasing our bankroll. Please keep me updated on your progress.
Good Luck