Session from hell

[FrankieT]

Well if you had high bets out there while the dealer was getting those blackjacks you were probably right in betting high..... when the the deck is high card rich the dealer ends up getting the high cards a lot of times....you still had the edge just bad luck

 

[newyorkbear]

If he had big bets because the count was high,then insurance was called for,as well.
When I encounter a dealer streak such as that,I simply recall the times I've hit a 14 against a dealers 10 and gotten a 7.The bottom line is that losing four hands in a row to dealer BJs is no different than busting four hands in a row.Why sweat how you lost?

 

[Roberto]

Because I think there is something to be said about the "quality" of play. To expand slightly, the dealer made four 20's prior to the BJ's (all ten cards) while I got seven stiffs and a a 17. Think it was time to find something else to do for awhile. BTW, when one speaks of "variance" is it in the cards, with the dealer, with the player or casino ?? I'm asking because there have been many times where I switched tables, or the dealer where I'm playing is changed, and I go on a mini win streak (maybe 5-7 hands in a row) which put me solidly back in the plus category. Maybe not immediately, but within a couple of minutes of the change. TIA

 

[Mikeaber]

Because I think there is something to be said about the "quality" of play. To expand slightly, the dealer made four 20's prior to the BJ's (all ten cards) while I got seven stiffs and a a 17. Think it was time to find something else to do for awhile. BTW, when one speaks of "variance" is it in the cards, with the dealer, with the player or casino ?? I'm asking because there have been many times where I switched tables, or the dealer where I'm playing is changed, and I go on a mini win streak (maybe 5-7 hands in a row) which put me solidly back in the plus category. Maybe not immediately, but within a couple of minutes of the change. TIA

It (variance) is in the cards Roberto. But if it makes you feel better to switch tables, go for it. Sometimes turning your hat around works too :laugh:

The best example of this I've seen happened in the WSOBJ I. "Holywood Dave" was playing using a negative progression to stay in the hunt. He was getting thrashed by this lady from California who was making very unwise betting decisions and lucking out on the draws. She was just simply beating the table with lucky plays. In the post tournament interview, Dave said to the one doing the interview "Variance is Hell!"

 

[nc-tom]

Because I think there is something to be said about the "quality" of play. To expand slightly, the dealer made four 20's prior to the BJ's (all ten cards) while I got seven stiffs and a a 17. Think it was time to find something else to do for awhile. BTW, when one speaks of "variance" is it in the cards, with the dealer, with the player or casino ?? I'm asking because there have been many times where I switched tables, or the dealer where I'm playing is changed, and I go on a mini win streak (maybe 5-7 hands in a row) which put me solidly back in the plus category. Maybe not immediately, but within a couple of minutes of the change. TIA

Roberto variance has to do with the cards only. If you know you are playing with an edge then keep at it unless conditions change.You need to trust the math no matter how stomach churning it is. The rest of the stuff is all in your head

 

[Roberto]

Variance

OK, thanks for pointing out that variance is in the cards. Does variance extend to ALL cards in a casino ?? That seemed to be the implication when Mikeaber said "But if it makes you feel better to switch tables, go for it. Sometimes turning your hat around works too". So, variance must be in ALL of the casino's cards. The reason I'm asking is because I've even gone to different casinos and had the SAME routine of getting six seven stiffs in a row and the dealer having 19-21 for the same number of hands. I hope you'll bear with me because I'm just trying to make some logical sense of variance. TIA

 

[Gregory]

OK, thanks for pointing out that variance is in the cards. Does variance extend to ALL cards in a casino ?? That seemed to be the implication when Mikeaber said "But if it makes you feel better to switch tables, go for it. Sometimes turning your hat around works too". So, variance must be in ALL of the casino's cards. The reason I'm asking is because I've even gone to different casinos and had the SAME routine of getting six seven stiffs in a row and the dealer having 19-21 for the same number of hands. I hope you'll bear with me because I'm just trying to make some logical sense of variance. TIA

Or to expand it more, does variance extend not only from one casino to the next, but from one day to the next? Or even, for that matter, from one week to the next week?
Maybe a definition of "variance" will be more enlightening:
"In probability theory and statistics, the variance of a random variable is a measure of its statistical dispersion, indicating how far from the expected value its values typically are."
You can define variance however you wish since you are the one who sets the standard and only you will realize when you have lost (negative variance) or won (positive variance). It's very possible that after a bad day at the tables your daily variance is negative but your yearly variance is still positive.
Variance is simply placing a value on how far we have strayed from a benchmark, and whether that straying was positive or negative.

 

[Mikeaber]

I stated that Holywood Dave made that quote "Variance is Hell" during an interview during WSOBJI. He actually made it after being eliminated in one of the earlier rounds of WSOBII I believe. I couldn't edit my original post.