Session Win Percentage

[Dummy]

I read it right. Don said if you quite after the same amount of play every time you wouldn't win 82% of sessions. I said nobody actually plays that way so it has no direct practical application. I didn't say I disagreed with Don's statement. Just that it has no practical application to casino play other than an unreachable ideal. What you want with exit strategy is a balance so no exit bias is forced. Don's statement is about using a balanced session exit strategy. He took it to the extreme by making it so balanced that you would never do it that way.

His statement is correct, but to translate to practical play you must change the impractical constraint of quitting after every hour (or 100 rounds because most people mean 100 rounds when they say hour) on the dot to something balanced and practical. To maintain the same lack of exit bias in a way that you might actually play in a casino you use a balanced exit strategy. If you use some kind of win/loss strategy, you use the same amount for each. You might use showing my spread a certain number of times. Many use a mixed strategy of several things all of which are balanced so none individually create an exit bias.

I try to make shorter posts but apparently I need to be more wordy or the ones that are slower at connecting the dots understand.

 

[DSchles]

I read it right. Don said if you quite after the same amount of play every time you wouldn't win 82% of sessions. I said nobody actually plays that way so it has no direct practical application. I didn't say I disagreed with Don's statement. Just that it has no practical application to casino play other than an unreachable ideal. What you want with exit strategy is a balance so no exit bias is forced. Don's statement is about using a balanced session exit strategy. He took it to the extreme by making it so balanced that you would never do it that way.

His statement is correct, but to translate to practical play you must change the impractical constraint of quitting after every hour (or 100 rounds because most people mean 100 rounds when they say hour) on the dot to something balanced and practical. To maintain the same lack of exit bias in a way that you might actually play in a casino you use a balanced exit strategy. If you use some kind of win/loss strategy, you use the same amount for each. You might use showing my spread a certain number of times. Many use a mixed strategy of several things all of which are balanced so none individually create an exit bias.

I try to make shorter posts but apparently I need to be more wordy or the ones that are slower at connecting the dots understand.

It should go without saying that, no one sets an alarm and leaves in the middle of a hand or shoe when the one-hour mark goes off. Just look at Table 2.2 at the bottom of page 21 of BJA3. What should become obvious is that it doesn't matter how long you call a session (including hundreds of hours!); you aren't going to win 82% of them!!

It's a waste of everyone's time to state the painfully obvious, namely that, when you play in a casino, your sessions aren't timed to the minute. That useless remark has no bearing on the current discussion -- namely that BY NO METRIC whatsoever does anyone ever win 82% of "sessions," unless by "sessions," you mean about a year's worth of play!

Don

 

[KewlJ]

I haven't entered this discussion because I find it irrelevant. Session results as in win percentages can easily be manipulated. The most obvious example is martingale or any kind of progression wagering which will result in many small session wins and a few much larger losses.

Now that is not to say that anyone here in this discussion is intentionally manipulating there session win percent in that manner, but really how you define a session and the method of play (plan of attack) is going to greatly influence session win rate.

I personally have a series of session exit triggers, showing max bet, a specific negative count and a time limit that insure my sessions will be short and my session win percentage probably different from other players. So comparing session win percentages is apples and oranges, in my opinion. Not much value in such a comparison among different players and styles.

Now that said, MWP numbers, for the year, previous year and lifetime all look somewhat high to me. I think I know MWP (from these forums) well enough to know he is being truthful, as I have never found him not to be. So I am a bit curious to know exactly how he defines a session to come up with those numbers. The fact that his session losses are much higher than session wins is a clue to that. And I am not saying MWP is doing anything wrong by this...just different than I do it, so I would like to know more just out of curiosity.

 

[psyduck]

I define session as my continuous life time play. So far my win rate is 100%.

 

[Dummy]

It should go without saying that, no one sets an alarm and leaves in the middle of a hand or shoe when the one-hour mark goes off. Just look at Table 2.2 at the bottom of page 21 of BJA3. What should become obvious is that it doesn't matter how long you call a session (including hundreds of hours!); you aren't going to win 82% of them!!

It's a waste of everyone's time to state the painfully obvious, namely that, when you play in a casino, your sessions aren't timed to the minute. That useless remark has no bearing on the current discussion -- namely that BY NO METRIC whatsoever does anyone ever win 82% of "sessions," unless by "sessions," you mean about a year's worth of play!

I had no issue with your 82% comment. I am not sure why you seem to be acting like I had an issue with it. I think you can manufacture that if you desired but it would be very costly. Like leaving as soon as you are ahead any amount. Nobody would do that if they understood the cost of doing so. I just think the important point as it relates to casino play is to have a balanced exit strategy that introduces as little exit bias as possible. Hopefully no exit bias. That is the practical way to make an equivalence to your clock scenario or at least avoid introducing an exit bias into your results. I have read a lot of people post exit strategies that would clearly create an exit bias. The important thing is to get them to understand how to have an exit strategy that has no exit bias.

 

[Dummy]

I define session as my continuous life time play. So far my win rate is 100%.

Yes, session win rate would go up with the defined length of a session. The way I keep records I usually define a session as the play in one particular casino in one particular day. I may start and stop playing a dozen times or more if it is a long day at one casino or I may just play 1 table the entire time. Sometimes I exceed the casino win tolerance in the first shoe and leave at the end of the shoe. It sounds like KJ defines a session more as play at one sitting. I have heard MWP say his sessions run from very short to a long day and include all his play that day. Perhaps heat or playing conditions are big factors there.

 

[Midwest Player]

What should become obvious is that it doesn't matter how long you call a session (including hundreds of hours!); you aren't going to win 82% of them!!

BY NO METRIC whatsoever does anyone ever win 82% of "sessions," unless by "sessions," you mean about a year's worth of play!

Don

Well, it happened. I won on 82% of the days I played this year. It hasn't ever happened before. I don't know why this is so hard to believe. Folks have good variance and bad variance all the time. I was lucky this year and last year too.

When I go to the casino I don't have exit points on leaving after reaching a certain win. I go to play and often play all day long win or lose. I have winning swings and losing swings through out the day. On one of my losses this year I was up over $500 at one point and ended the day down almost $500 when they closed.

Here are some reasons why this year had such a high win rate.
First, I did not play a whole lot this year. I played only 44 times for a total of 262 hours. If I played more I'm sure the win rate would have been lower. For example in my best year ever I played a total of 123 times for 762 hours. Session win rate for that year was only 70%.

Also this year started out on a winning streak. A streak this long has only happened a few times before in 33 years of playing blackjack. I won the first 11 times I played blackjack this year, so by mid April I was at a 100% win rate. Really the streak started in 2017 so the streak lasted 13 sessions which is very unusual.

The win rate did drop though out the year. By mid Aug it was down to 80%, but remember the year started out good at 100%. I'm sure if I played more this year the win rate would have dropped even more. Towards the end of the year it came back a little to end at 82%

 

[Dummy]

On a computer sim your play is whatever you tell the computer to do. It is usually either all heads-up or a mix of the number of players at the table. The cut card is usually always in the same place. It doesn't factor in dealer errors and player options. I don't worry about hourly on a computer. I look at results as per 100 rounds where the amount of time varies greatly depending on game speed. In a casino you can make choices that can alter all of these computer assumptions for the better. When successful at this, casino play should be a bit different than computer sims for the better.

Sessions are very short term usually. Some players have a more chaotic short term than others due to choices they made for their approach. None of the stats a computer produces really apply to understanding your short term results. They are all long term stats. I try not to have an exit bias but win more than 70% of sessions. The key word there is try. I don't think I am as successful as I would like to be and all my really big losing sessions tend to be when I stayed when I know I should have left. Some sessions you just can't seem to win any big bets, or at least not enough of them. I play through an extra max bet cycle because conditions are still great and my results continue to be I can't win the big bets. But we are talking about session win rate and that probably increases session win rate because of all the times I got my money back. Personally I would rather take the smaller loss and win fewer sessions. It is better for longevity and steady BR growth. Sometimes you know what you should do but your nature works against that. If this is the case you should realize who you are and do what you can to not put you in situations where you make poor decisions. Easier said than done.