Why do I say this?
45% of the time, you'll be able to win $15K and buy the business immediately, rather than waiting a year to save up the money. If that happens, you can expect to make $30K more in this next year than you're making now. This phenomenon is known in the poker world as " implied pot odds". Often times a poker player will correctly make a NEGATIVE expectation bet because of pot odds.
Couple this with the very real and likely possibility that someone else may snatch this business up before you can save up the money;IMO there is enough immediacy in this situation that going ahead with this plan may very well BE the wise choice.
This is well said. In some ways I would be wagering $5000 to "win" something worth $250,000. Now of course I would be paying the $250,000 partially with my down payment, and partially over 3-5 years, but if the value of the deal is high enough to me it could make a lot of sense.
On the other thing, buying the business isn't a sure thing even if I get the money. I want to buy this business, and need $60,000 to do it. But that is just the magic number for the seller to start to take me seriously. I still might not get financing, someone else might jump in ahead of me, or I might back out. Last time I made an offer and got to the "due diligence" phase I found that the seller had exaggerated the income and left out some expenses.
Agreed, kewljason. As I was telling apex in my previous post, it would be my opinion that his chances are more like 35-40%, despite the simulation indicating 44%.
I think SP is right in the ball park. I certainly don't play perfect. Every session I play there is at least one hand I wasn't sure about that I look up when I get home. I think my biggest problem would be underbetting. Even when im playing $10 units, I get scared betting $100 because they call out "checks in play." If im not willing to put that top bet out there when it is called for almost all of my edge would be lost. I don't think I would chicken out on double downs and spilts though. I know those are where you really have the edge and would be quite foolish to pass those opportunities up. More practice would certainly be wise before I wager significant money.
At this point, I think Apex is better off to completely avoid gaming and borrow the 15k or whatever he's short for the "down money".
Too many possibilities are out there for trying the other plan. Sure, winning the 15k is one of them but even if he does, the temptation from that success may lead to continued play with bigger bets. If so, what happens if he soon hits the dreaded negative variance?
His desire for the business seems strong enough that he should hold off on gaming until he's a successful business person. Then he can approach the game with a different perspective.
Not knowing his level of self discipline, that would be my advice.
This is another thing I have thought about. Technically I need to "have" 60k to borrow the rest. The bank would not allow the loan if they knew I borrowed 15k to get it. I could probably have my parents "gift" me the money and "gift" it back to them later. So far I have been too proud to ask, but this is probably the best option. Also, they may not have it. I know they make good money, but also keep it tied up in investments.
As far as variance and self discipline, I am certain I would error on the conservative side. If I won a lot I wouldn't up my bets, but if I had a bad session there is a decent chance I would go back to 5-75 or quit for awhile.
I think in both blackjack and business I am trying to go from "walking" to "flying" here. I really have no business in a green chip game yet, and I can't afford this business. This thread I started was somewhere between a serious though, and a dream. I think now I am back to reality, which means practicing blackjack more, and finding a partner or passing on this business. There will be more opportunites.
