Shufflemaster Blackjack Slot Machine follow-up

[Ronnie]

A few days ago I inquired about a Shuffle Master Blackjack Slot Machine that was to be coming to Pennsylvania. I thought it was going to be "Table Master."

The actual machines being brought in are called "Royal Match." The name refers to bonuses that you can shoot for by making side bets on blackjack hands. Bonuses=BAD BETS!!!

So in this discussion I am only interested in playing standard blackjack hands on those machines and will not worry about or even discuss the bonuses.

Also .....

I am for now strictly a BASIC STRATEGY player and for now am not going to worry about counting.

I am going to state what I believe the rules are.

The reason for this is because although the machines are in place in the particular casino I visited, they are not yet operational.

I would appreciate it if any of you here would let me know approximately what the house edge would be with the following rules stated below assuming that I play STRICTLY BASIC STRATEGY.

It may not actually be an INFINITE DECK deck scenario. However let's assume that WORST CASE SCENARIO.

Here goes, these are the rules:

COST PER HAND IS 5 DOLLARS.

THE GAME USES AN INFINITE DECK, SHUFFLED AFTER EACH HAND.

IT PAYS 3-2 ON BLACKJACKS.

INSURANCE IS OFFERED.

IF THE DEALER HAS AN UPCARD OF TEN-VALUE HE DOES NOT PEEK TO SEE IF THE HOLE CARD IS AN ACE (WHICH WOULD MAKE THE HAND A BLACKJACK). THEREFORE IT IS POSSIBLE TO DOUBLE DOWN OR SPLIT AGAINST THAT TEN-VALUE, WIND UP WITH A 21, AND LOSE TO A BLACKJACK.

THE DEALER HITS SOFT 17.

YOU CAN DOUBLE DOWN WITH ANY TWO CARDS.

YOU CANNOT DOUBLE DOWN AFTER A SPLIT.

YOU CAN SPLIT UP TO THREE TIMES. IN OTHER WORDS, YOU CAN PLAY A MAXIMUM OF FOUR HANDS VERSUS A DEALER HAND.

YOU CAN SPLIT ACES BUT ARE RESTRICTED TO DRAWING A SINGLE CARD ON EACH SPLIT ACE. IF ONE OF THOSE DRAWN CARDS IS AN ACE, YOU CANNOT SPLIT AGAIN.

It may turn out that some of the actual rules are more generous than stated above. However, for the time being, I am going to assume that the above scenario is absolutely true and am asking any of you who are knowledgeable to please answer the following question:

Assuming all the above rules are accurate and assuming the machine plays legitimately (using a random-number-generator without rigging the cards) what is the house edge in the above game if I play impeccable BASIC STRATEGY?

Thanks in advance for your information!

Ronnie

 

[Mimosine]

it's going to be roughly -0.65%

though you can calculate it more precisely here:
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/house-edge-calculator.html

edit: well i was way off, roughly -0.9% !!! using 8D instead of infinite, though this latter point may cause a slight decrease in house edge.... this you'll have to ask someone else about...

 

[Ronnie]

Thanks!

Thanks!

That calculator is extremely helpful and educational!

The house edge is very small but playing five dollars a pop can be very pricey if one hits a bad streak.

Still it might be an interesting diversion if one does not get carried away.

 

[Mimosine]

Thanks!

The house edge is very small but playing five dollars a pop can be very pricey if one hits a bad streak.

as far as BJ is concerned the edge is large.
in my opinion ANY game with an edge higher than -0.6% should be avoided like ebola! :whip:

if it's all you've got, then i understand the desire to play it, but if there are other options, your money would be better risked elsewhere...

 

[21forme]

There was an article in our local paper about the PA machines. Apparently there's a communications problem between the machines and the gaming commission. They want to be able to monitor the machines all the time.

The article also mentioned the machines cost 100K each! You can bet there will be a significant house edge to recoup that.

 

[geneticfreak]

The machines in Delaware Park are also Royal Match, but the rules are different. I'll try to compare them below.

COST PER HAND IS 5 DOLLARS.
Same

THE GAME USES AN INFINITE DECK, SHUFFLED AFTER EACH HAND.
Six Decks - Shuffled after 2/3 of the shoe, although there is no indication of when this occurs.

IT PAYS 3-2 ON BLACKJACKS.
Same

INSURANCE IS OFFERED.
Same

IF THE DEALER HAS AN UPCARD OF TEN-VALUE HE DOES NOT PEEK TO SEE IF THE HOLE CARD IS AN ACE (WHICH WOULD MAKE THE HAND A BLACKJACK). THEREFORE IT IS POSSIBLE TO DOUBLE DOWN OR SPLIT AGAINST THAT TEN-VALUE, WIND UP WITH A 21, AND LOSE TO A BLACKJACK.
Dealer peeks before asking for action.

THE DEALER HITS SOFT 17.
Dealer stands on all 17's

YOU CAN DOUBLE DOWN WITH ANY TWO CARDS.
Same

YOU CANNOT DOUBLE DOWN AFTER A SPLIT.
Double after split is allowed.

YOU CAN SPLIT UP TO THREE TIMES. IN OTHER WORDS, YOU CAN PLAY A MAXIMUM OF FOUR HANDS VERSUS A DEALER HAND.
This might be the same, but I can't remember for certain.

YOU CAN SPLIT ACES BUT ARE RESTRICTED TO DRAWING A SINGLE CARD ON EACH SPLIT ACE. IF ONE OF THOSE DRAWN CARDS IS AN ACE, YOU CANNOT SPLIT AGAIN.
Same

 

[Kasi]

A few days ago I inquired about a Shuffle Master Blackjack Slot Machine that was to be coming to Pennsylvania. I thought it was going to be "Table Master."
The actual machines being brought in are called "Royal Match." The name refers to bonuses that you can shoot for by making side bets on blackjack hands. Bonuses=BAD BETS!!!

Exactly where were u? PM me if it's a big secret.Do u know when they will be operational?

An infinite deck game would be shuffled after every card rather than round, I think.

Yeah, crappy rules. Not real surprising. But a lot better than their 90% average payback on slot machines. One of the worst rates in the country I think.

I would guess Table Master still makes the game but this one is programmed for Royal Match.

Without a pit crew, it won't take them long to recover their $100-$135 cost per machine. The amazing thing is they don't use the square footage for more slot machines which I would imagine would be more profitable per sq/ft.

Do u think they also do not check for BJ when an Ace is the upcard?

 

[Ronnie]

There was an article in our local paper about the PA machines. Apparently there's a communications problem between the machines and the gaming commission. They want to be able to monitor the machines all the time.

The article also mentioned the machines cost 100K each! You can bet there will be a significant house edge to recoup that.

Perhaps but then my question is .....

Where would that significant house edge come from?

If the rules turn out to be the same as those in Delaware (described by another poster to this thread) then I cannot see a significant house edge over a person playing correct basic strategy. It the edge is less than half a percent, I would not call that significant.

On the other hand most people who play these machines or who play blackjack in general probably do not play fully-correct basic strategy, and the house would get an additional edge over those less proficient players I suppose.

 

[21forme]

I recall reading somewhere that the actual house advantage for blackjack is about 5%, when you factor in player's improper play. That's about the same as slots.

 

[EasyRhino]

Slight digression, but wouldn't a true infinite-deck machine be slightly different than one that reshuffles every hand?

I would imagine that in an infinite-deck game, after one card is drawn, the next card would be drawn from a "deck" of exactly 52 cards, including the one that was already drawn! In an absurd case, you could have one hand with 30 or so aces of spades. This seems like the sort of BJ game you'd end up with with a programmer who's just learning how to code, but that type of game does not exist in online gaming, and I would be surprised to see it in a regulated casino environment.

Oh, cool, the Wiz put in the effect. .08% increase in house edge over 8d.
http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/blackjack-houseedge.html

In any shoe game, there's still an effect of removal. If you get 16 (composed of 10, 6), vs a 10, that's going to affect your odds slightly different than getting a 9,7 vs 10. And from what I've heard discussed by smarter people, this means that the basic strategy on 16 vs 10 would be to stand, not hit.

 

[shadroch]

The article also mentioned the machines cost 100K each! You can bet there will be a significant house edge to recoup that.[/QUOTE]


Thats not really true.
In a real casino,a casino would spend much more than $100,000 PER Year on salary and cards.Having a one time expense would save the casinos money.

 

[21forme]

Maybe this is different from the machine in Cherokee, NC, but that cardless BJ table had a dealer (to push the buttons for hit, stay, insurance, double, split, and handle the chips) and PC present.

 

[Kasi]

Slight digression, but wouldn't a true infinite-deck machine be slightly different than one that reshuffles every hand?

I would imagine that in an infinite-deck game, after one card is drawn, the next card would be drawn from a "deck" of exactly 52 cards, including the one that was already drawn! In an absurd case, you could have one hand with 30 or so aces of spades. This seems like the sort of BJ game you'd end up with with a programmer who's just learning how to code, but that type of game does not exist in online gaming, and I would be surprised to see it in a regulated casino environment..

That's what I said lol!

Lasseter's I think used to have an infinite deck game - I know because I got 2 Ace of Spades in a 1D game and have the screenshot of it

Interestingly, some plays like doubling A,4 vs 4 are correct up to 26 decks but become a hit with 27 decks. I think A,2 vs 5 also eventually becomes a hit rather than a double.

Not entirely sure but I think 10,6 vs 10 is a hit even in 1D. Certainly, one is better off standing on 3 card 16's vs 10.

So don't get mad at those ploppies that stand on 3 card 16's vs 10 just because they're scared to hit!

 

[Kasi]

I recall reading somewhere that the actual house advantage for blackjack is about 5%, when you factor in player's improper play..

Interesting - I would have thought maybe 2-3%, perhaps because I think that's what internet casinos usually averaged, but I really have no idea.

I just can't imagine how bad play would have to be to consistently yield a 5% HA.

You sure that wouldn't be the "drop" % - how much they retain from buy-ins?

Anyway, any input on this would be appreciated!

 

[ihate17]

The drop is much larger

Interesting - I would have thought maybe 2-3%, perhaps because I think that's what internet casinos usually averaged, but I really have no idea.

I just can't imagine how bad play would have to be to consistently yield a 5% HA.

You sure that wouldn't be the "drop" % - how much they retain from buy-ins?

Anyway, any input on this would be appreciated!

The cumlative effect of the drop makes it much larger, but the 2-3% is a more accurate number than 5% on a decent game. Now if you consider the difference between 3 and 5%, then games such as the 6/5 shoes that Harrah's is poisening the game with will challenge 5% or even more if you guess that the people who play these games are really really bad players.
An MGM exec told me that they expect to make 2.5% on their .26% house edge blackjack game, so if we take the same average player with the same average amount of mistakes, 4.25%+ would be in the ballpark for one of those 2% house edge games.

ihate17

 

[EasyRhino]

An MGM exec told me that they expect to make 2.5% on their .26% house edge blackjack game, so if we take the same average player with the same average amount of mistakes, 4.25%+ would be in the ballpark for one of those 2% house edge games.

Wow, that means the casinos just invented a faster form of roulette.

Imagine what they could do with a version of roulette that gave the player room for mistakes?

 

[Cardcounter]

Clearing up confusion on 16 vs a 10!

Both 10, 6 and 9,7 against a 10 have the same odds on drawing because a 6 or higher will bust you. However your effect on drawing is slightly better with those two hands than standing. However for an infinite deck or an 8 deck shoe game the composition of your hand does not make much difference. For 6 decks or less the composition of your hand usually with 3 cards or more is where you would stand. Some extreme examples would be 4,4,4,4 vs a 10
5,5,6 vs a 10. 4,5,7 vs a 10. Basic the rule states stand on 16 vs a 10 if you use up a 4 or a 5 to get there. This modification is only worth a tiny bit to your game and if you have a 16 vs a 10 expect to lose the hand even if you play the hand correctly.

 

[Kasi]

The cumlative effect of the drop makes it much larger, but the 2-3% is a more accurate number than 5% on a decent game.

Thx for the input - I figured drop was alot higher than 5% - what like maybe 20% would u say?

Anyway who the heck knows - maybe casinos financial statements publish their payback rates in financials? Is such information not public?

 

[Kasi]

For 6 decks or less the composition of your hand usually with 3 cards or more is where you would stand. Some extreme examples would be 4,4,4,4 vs a 10
5,5,6 vs a 10. 4,5,7 vs a 10. Basic the rule states stand on 16 vs a 10 if you use up a 4 or a 5 to get there. This modification is only worth a tiny bit to your game and if you have a 16 vs a 10 expect to lose the hand even if you play the hand correctly.

I think even in an 8 deck game one is better off overall if one stands on all 3-card 16's rather than hit them. But like u say, we're not going to live long enuf to see the difference.

 

[Geoff Hall]

Hold % & 'Payback'

Thx for the input - I figured drop was alot higher than 5% - what like maybe 20% would u say?

Anyway who the heck knows - maybe casinos financial statements publish their payback rates in financials? Is such information not public?

Kasi,

Land-based casinos and Internet casinos work differently to get their hold % on a game. For a land-based casino, the amount of money won on a table (hold) is divided by the amount of money taken on the table (drop) to get the hold %.

So, if a player sits down with $200 and plays for 4 hours, losing $40 betting $10 per hand, the hold % would be 20%. However, the player may be playing at a house edge of just 0.5% - it depends a lot on the speed of the particular game and how long the player sits there for.

For the Internet, it is easy to monitor and record exact amounts. So, Internet casinos will look at the total amount that has been bet (not the amount cashed in) and then compare this figure with the total amount that has been paid out. So, the same player above would be recorded as having bet, say, $4,000 with $3,960 being paid back to him/her. The 'Payback' would be recorded as 3960/4000 x 100 = 99%. It is easier to see what the overall house edge is, for the players, using this method.

Although it depends on the location, a typical 'Strip' casino would record a hold, on multi-deck blackjack, at around 12-14%, single deck Blackjack (not 6/5) at around 7-8% and 6/5 Blackjack at around 21%.

Internet sites roughly record a 'Payback' of around 97-98% for their Blackjack which suggests the 2-3% house edge (for 'average' players) that has been stated earlier.

Hope this helps.