sick to my stomach...

[Automatic Monkey]

Addressing both suggestions - get both practice and risk-mgmt software. Perhaps QFIT-CV can do both, but I'm not familiar enough with it. I use NeUltra for practice and BJRisk for the other. zg

Qfit can do it. It can give you absolute RoR or trip ruin based on any simulation, also probability of win, hands needed to goal, and all of those other things that drop out of the same math as RoR. It also calculates N0, SCORE, and will generate risk-averse indices based on your spread.

The practice software I've never really used because I can't practice anywhere but at a live table. But I've heard it is effective.

 

[traynor]

downs

The best thing I can say is that it definitely gets better. At some point you will realize that the struggle is really with yourself, not the casino. All the rah rah self-confidence in the world is not going to change the outcome of one single hand. That is the best part about it.

After you have been doing it for awhile, you will begin to realize that all the ups and downs, the hot streaks and cold streaks, are all in your head. External reality just keeps moving along.

What does that mean? It means play a perfect game every single time, and leave the emotional ups and downs for the beginners. There is no place for beating up on yourself any more than there is a place for thinking you are King of the World for having made some brilliant play. No matter how far up you are, or how far down you are, it doesn't matter--the present state of your psyche and your bankroll have no influence whatsoever on the outcome of the next hand.

Once you understand that, you will understand that your obligation to yourself is to play your very best at all times. It took me several years to reach that point (and more money than I would care to admit), but once you understand that your moods only affect you, not the outcome of the hands, it all gets a lot easier.

If you are unclear about the issue, there is a very readable (for having such a ponderous title) paper called, "Cognitive Heuristics and Biases in Behavioral Auditing," by Tversky and Kahneman. It is a fairly easy read, and will give you a lot of insight into the mental traps you can set for (and spring on) yourself.

I would also suggest that anyone interested in longevity as a counter read and study everything they can lay their hands on about decision-theory and decision biases.
Good Luck!

 

[zengrifter]

http://www.tekwrytrs.com/ -DDSS Ratings

Welcome Traynor. Are you a counter as well as a racing expert? DDSS looks pretty strong at face value. What sort of long term advantage can DDSS provide a race bettor? I must say that I am intrigued because I don't like sports betting, per'se, and I liked what I've read about racing and especially the ex-counters that were cleaning up in the Hong Kong races using computer analysis. zg

 

[traynor]

Welcome Traynor. Are you a counter as well as a racing expert? DDSS looks pretty strong at face value. What sort of long term advantage can DDSS provide a race bettor? I must say that I am intrigued because I don't like sports betting, per'se, and I liked what I've read about racing and especially the ex-counters that were cleaning up in the Hong Kong races using computer analysis. zg

Am I a counter? Yes. Blackjack is my "primary occupation." "Long-term advantage" doesn't exist the same way in racing that it does in Blackjack. That is, each race is a dynamic. The closest thing there is to a long-term advantage leverages that fact and responds to changes in the external environment. In simple terms, the important thing is what you need to do to make a profit on the next race, rather than what you should have done to make a profit on a race last month. That makes data modeling--especially "layering" into appropriate data clusters--far more important than simple regression analysis.

Most computer handicappers work in the same way counters do; aiming for consistency and profit over time, rather than making a killing in one day or night. It should come as no surprise that some of the most successful computer handicappers are either current or former professional counters. The skill sets and mental attributes necessary for success are nearly identical.

Returning to long-term advantage, there are greyhound models that have remained stable over several years that routinely return 15-20% (or more) profit. Harness models and thoroughbred models at specific tracks offer slightly less, and tend to be more dynamic; continual analysis and interpretation is essential.

Probably the best description of the process necessary to be successful in racing is that which business scholar Karl Weick refers to as "sensemaking"; an iterative process of analysis, feedback, and adjustment to the dynamics of the external (and internal) environments.
Good Luck!

 

[zengrifter]

.......there are greyhound models that have remained stable over several years that routinely return 15-20% (or more) profit.

I have heard that dogs are the easiest/highest potental, but the books won't take larger bets because of this. zg

 

[Doc]

Race betting

I've been wanting to learn more about betting on greyhounds and horse races. Is there a good book or site I should examine to learn more about this. Everything I've found in my search this far seems pretty poor. Thanks for any suggested reading, etc.

 

[zengrifter]

I've been wanting to learn more about betting on greyhounds and horse races. Is there a good book or site I should examine to learn more about this. Everything I've found in my search this far seems pretty poor. Thanks for any suggested reading, etc.

See the link on Traynor's post - they sell a subscriber-based service for pro-level bettors - $300/mo. zg

 

[traynor]

I have heard that dogs are the easiest/highest potental, but the books won't take larger bets because of this. zg

"Large" is relative. If you are betting straight win, you would be better off to spread bets around half a dozen tracks than to dump it all at one track (depending on the size of your wagers). If you are making wagers of $200 or more to win, you pretty well have to stick to Southland, the Florida circuit, and possibly Wonderland. At most other tracks, that size bet will diminish the odds enough to destroy your advantage.

Spreading bets is easy, because the bets are mechanical; this pattern is for a win bet, that pattern is for exactas, another pattern is for trifectas, and so on. It is also productive; if you have a high probability exacta, it can be leveraged into a superfecta for a modest outlay, with returns that are often impressive.
Good Luck!

 

[traynor]

I've been wanting to learn more about betting on greyhounds and horse races. Is there a good book or site I should examine to learn more about this. Everything I've found in my search this far seems pretty poor. Thanks for any suggested reading, etc.

The best thing I have ever read on greyhound racing is an out-of-print book by Robert Homberger, called the "Dog Racing Investment System." He was an engineer, and used fairly strict statistical processes to analyze results. I haven't seen a copy in 15 years or so, so it might be hard to find.

On horses, there is a problem. There are any number of well-written, interesting books that will give you a lot of background and colorful stories. Unfortunately, none will tell you anything beyond the bare essentials of what you need to know to win. Beyer, Brohamer, Quirin, Quinn, Sartin, and Davidowitz are all considered "gurus" in horse racing circles, but none has put anything in print that can be used to turn a profit. That is, by the time it is published, the information is obsolete.

We are collaboratively writing manuals on greyhound, thoroughbred, and harness handicapping basics with members in Australia and the UK that should be available in September or so. They will be posted onlne for free, and should be better than anything commercially available.
Good Luck!

 

[zengrifter]

"Large" is relative. If you are betting straight win, you would be better off to spread bets around half a dozen tracks than to dump it all at one track (depending on the size of your wagers). If you are making wagers of $200 or more to win, you pretty well have to stick to Southland, the Florida circuit, and possibly Wonderland. At most other tracks, that size bet will diminish the odds enough to destroy your advantage.

I meant placing the bets at Vegas sports books. zg

 

[traynor]

I meant placing the bets at Vegas sports books. zg

It is not so much the amount as the type of bet. No exactas, and if I remember correctly, no trifectas or superfectas. Quinielas only, and that has a cap. That is a real problem, unless you bet win only. That is an option, because a lot of tracks have a good return on straight win. The problem in Vegas is that not only are the bets capped, they offer a very limited number of tracks.

Most greyhound bettors use PayDog or some other online facility. It is the greyhound equivalent of YouBet. Run by state gaming commissions, all up-and-up, and no one is likely to disappear with the money if you hit a large payoff.
Good Luck

 

[traynor]

Sample Races

---Moved to Other Games forum---

 

[traynor]

Louisiana Downs Results

---Moved to Other Games forum---

 

[zengrifter]

Traynor - You should repost your last two posts in the correct forum - "Other Games" - we may even decide to create a racing forum if we can count on you to be a regular contributor! zg

I don't want to clutter up your board with spurious postings. If anyone is interested in thoroughbred racing, this should give you a general idea of what is available.

Basic Strategy:
1) Close ratings indicate contentious races.
2) Larger gaps between first and second choices indicate a higher probability of the first choice winning.
3) Conversely, a narrow gap between first and second choices indicates a contentious race in which the second, third, or fourth choice is almost as likely to win as the first choice.
4) In many cases--particularly in races where there are relatively narrow gaps in the ratings--the third and fourth choices may be dutched or flat bet to win in every race.

That is a somewhat simplistic explanation, but it should enable you to see the relationship between the ratings and the probable race outcomes.

Results may be accessed shortly after each race is declared official at:
(Dead link: http://www.drf.com/results/rindex.html)

Ratings are for today's races at Louisiana Downs.
LaD R01
1000 1 Gennies Challenge xxx
_921 6 Ciel Classic
_823 2 One Sock Becky
_823 5 Imajoanietoo

LaD R02
1000 4 Explosive Ball
_971 7 Capotes Bar
_952 8 My Little Connor
_952 6 Jurassic Wonder

LaD R03
1000 1 Best Expectations
_564 4 Zarifah
_379 3 Track Minister
_379 2 Quite Wendy

LaD R04
1000 4 Northern Breeze
_940 5 O Gs Rowdy
_809 3 Elle Moreno
_795 1 Classy Etbauer

LaD R05
1000 2 No Matter Who
_969 7 Sexy Royalty
_939 5 Igetitfrommydaddy
_924 8 Soars With Angels

LaD R06
1000 3 Army Man
_980 7 Strategury
_980 1 Kenai River
_980 8 Super Stutz

LaD R07
1000 9 Ms Avis
_939 6 Zarpen
_919 5 Young Emotions
_890 1 Zarbs Miss Cutie

LaD R08
1000 4 Sonic Flight
_903 10 Big Expectations
_871 3 Appelate Court
_491 2 Stags Glory

LaD R09
1000 6 Prairie
_979 5 Oso Gothic
_930 8 Paver And Roller
_900 9 Ms Magdlean

LaD R10
1000 3 Vicars Hero
_965 1 Gallant Bandit
_931 6 Soldier Bob
_920 2 Humble Buford
Good Luck!

 

[traynor]

Moved to Other Games forum

zengrifter,
I moved the posts to the Other Games forum. If anyone is interested, I would be more than happy to post selections, answer questions, and give advice (if I know the answer) on any level of handicapping from beginner to professional, for thoroughbred, harness, or greyhound racing, on a regular basis.
Good Luck