Of course gronbog is correct as he usually is...you are never due (I'll repeat my personal exercise in learning this lesson in a minute), BUT, while you are never due, the math will work itself out in the long run. At least that has been my experience in my now 16 years run.
What I mean by that is while I have had 4 or 5 extended periods of losing, lasting 4-6 months, for each of these periods except 1, if you were to look at a slightly larger sample size of a year (including that 4-6 month period), the results are pretty close to expectation. And the one that is still off after a year is almost spot on expectation with an even larger extension of 2 years. As you get to the longterm (larger sample size) the math gets to where is "supposed" to be. Again, at least in my experience.
Now the problem is you can't predict or try to force anything. I feel like I have told this story recently, so my apologies for repeating, but one year early in my career, my year got off to a great start. I am not going to look up the exact numbers but I was way ahead after 6 weeks, 2 months. LIke 5 times expectation for that amount of play. I convinced myself that a "correction", losing period, negative variance period, what ever you want to call it, was coming. So I cut my bet spread and max bet in half figuring that I would only lose half as much.
Well that correction both did and didn't come. It didn't come how I envisioned it, a losing streak or period. What occurred was for the rest of the year, I continued to win, just at a rate a little below expectation (from that point). So by years end 2 things had occurred. I was able to look back and determine that had I not cut my wagers in half, I would have been shockingly close to expectation for the year. Actually I still was shockingly close to expectation the way I had done it, it is just that expectation was much lower. All I had managed to do by reducing my spread and top wager was reduce the amount I won over those last 10 months or so. I basically cut that in half.
Lesson learned.
