Software for Progression Systems?

[justmaybe]

Any Suggestions?

I do have a system that works. What I am looking for is a program where I can actually put in the different betting strategies with different chip goal settings for each of the players and therefore have the computer constantly run the games over and over, testing the several different betting systems. This way I can get a more accurate win/loss percentage record and therefore decide which betting strategy gives the best return. As you know we can only move so fast on a computer, but if we can get the computer to run the system for us it can do it much faster and non-stop.

Example: Have player "A" base bet $10, after one loss bet $15, two losses bet $20, three losses bet $25 and so forth up to as many bets and amounts as you want the computer to do. As soon as there is a win, go back to the base bet. If you have 5 losses in a row either quit the game and count it as a loss or continue playing with a new chip goal setting, starting once again at your base bet and just have a particular number set to earn back from your losses (You had 5 losses and your down $200, so now the computer would continue playing to merely win back $50, but if you have a second 5 losing streak then you would quit the game and count it as a loss). The computer would also need to be programmed to "hit, stand, split, double down, and surrender" based on the well known system used for all tables of different numbers of decks being used.

The computer would also keep a record for each player regarding win/loss percentage, number of hands played, number of games played, total money won to total money lost, and net profits after all games, as well as win streaks and losing streaks.

Can anyone help me?

 

[Sonny]

Everything you need to know:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=60805&postcount=73

-Sonny-

 

[justmaybe]

This Does Work

Sonny,
I noticed your in LA. I'm in Long Beach. I do understand the math and statistics of the game and I have actually figured out a progression system that does work consistently. It has already proven itself to me over and over again. Like I said, if I could just find a program or a programmer which I could utilize this system with then I could get a more accurate win/loss percentage ratio while playing with a few adjustments in the system. Allowing a computer to play thousands of hands continuously would really speed up the process. Then I could actually tweak the system as perfect as possible. I'm serious, this system really does work. It is based on the statistics of winnings outweighing losses over time/numbers of games. In other words, it's not a system that you play twice and win twice. You play it 100 times and win 60 times to 40 losses and end up being 400 chips up, or even more. You do the math. The table you play on determines your profits. It not about money, its about chip count and then the value of the chip. You rotate casinos like a job and play anywhere from 30 to 120 games per month (your choice), approximately 2 to 4 hours per day. You determine your annual profits based on the number of games you're willing to play per year. If you are experienced well in this and would like to talk, let me know.

 

[sagefr0g]

Everything you need to know:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=60805&postcount=73

-Sonny-

i believe sage blackjack simulator (no relation ... lol ) has some capability for testing progression systems.......

(Dead link: http://www.s-a-g-e.com/bjinfo.html)

last time i tryed the link it wasn't working........ hopefully it's just down temporarily.

 

[Sonny]

I noticed your in LA. I'm in Long Beach.

Representin’ the LBC! Nice.

Like I said, if I could just find a program or a programmer which I could utilize this system with then I could get a more accurate win/loss percentage ratio while playing with a few adjustments in the system.

You’ve got a forum full of programmers, math guys and pro players here. If you’re willing to discuss your system publicly I’m sure we can help you out. At the very least we could analyze your results so far. However, I really encourage you to read through the articles at the top of this forum. It might save you a lot of time and effort.

-Sonny-

 

[jomoats]

I do have a system that works. What I am looking for is a program where I can actually put in the different betting strategies with different chip goal settings for each of the players and therefore have the computer constantly run the games over and over, testing the several different betting systems. This way I can get a more accurate win/loss percentage record and therefore decide which betting strategy gives the best return. As you know we can only move so fast on a computer, but if we can get the computer to run the system for us it can do it much faster and non-stop.

Example: Have player "A" base bet $10, after one loss bet $15, two losses bet $20, three losses bet $25 and so forth up to as many bets and amounts as you want the computer to do. As soon as there is a win, go back to the base bet. If you have 5 losses in a row either quit the game and count it as a loss or continue playing with a new chip goal setting, starting once again at your base bet and just have a particular number set to earn back from your losses (You had 5 losses and your down $200, so now the computer would continue playing to merely win back $50, but if you have a second 5 losing streak then you would quit the game and count it as a loss). The computer would also need to be programmed to "hit, stand, split, double down, and surrender" based on the well known system used for all tables of different numbers of decks being used.

The computer would also keep a record for each player regarding win/loss percentage, number of hands played, number of games played, total money won to total money lost, and net profits after all games, as well as win streaks and losing streaks.

Can anyone help me?

I've a project called (Timeless) on Guru.com to have a special simulator built that will accommodate most betting systems. Most progression players have the same problem of not being able to sim their systems. Finding out in a casino is too expensive.

I purchased Sage Blackjack for $50 and it can give you the info you need if you'll keep hand records and spend a great deal of time entering your bets and playing one event at a time. It had the potential of being a great product if it would accommodate a broader range of systems and input. Plays beautiful music, but that's not what a player is looking for. The developer was obviously very talented. It's a good product until something better comes along.

 

[Sonny]

I've a project called (Timeless) on Guru.com to have a special simulator built that will accommodate most betting systems.

I’m a member of Guru.com so I decided to check out that listing. It was pretty vague, and I’m still not really sure what it is from the description. Are these excerpts from the listing you’re talking about?

“To develop a specific simulator(software) that would be made available to approx. 100 million customers and numerous governments worldwide…There is some urgency on the social side for this product but not on it's broad customer appeal until the target customers are aware of it.”

It is just for a BJ simulator that handles progression systems? That’s incredibly simple to program. The part that really sours the deal is this:

“All development(documented costs) would be covered through raised monies, if successful…Only those who will work for uncertain future payments need apply.”

You’re going to have a hard time finding competent computer programmers willing to risk their paycheck on a progression system. Even then, the days of Eudemonic enterprises are long gone.

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

here is some of the help text for sage-blackjack that discusses progression betting with the simulator. note: the author doesn't recommend it....

snip ========>>>>

Progressive Bet Strategy Dialog Box

The Progressive Bet Strategy dialog box is displayed when the Progressive strategy Settings button on the Bet Strategy dialog box is selected. This dialog box provides the user with the means to define a betting
strategy based on the results of previous hands. This type of betting strategy attempts to take advantage of winning or losing streaks. As long as the player wins (or losses, as defined by the Advance levels upon
radio buttons), he advances up the levels and increases his bet size. Statistics based on the results the player obtained using this system can be view in the Progression Statistics dialog box.


When the Progressive Bet Definition button is selected, the Progressive Bet Definition dialog box is displayed. This dialog box defines how the levels on this dialog box are advanced.

The Level column represents different betting levels. Every time a player meets his goal before he encounters his stop definition he advances to the next level, which usually entails him to make larger bets. The last
check box selected represents the highest betting level. Once at this level, the player remains at this level until the stop definition is met.


The Bet Size column represents the starting bet size once this level is reached. As long as the number of wins are greater than or equal to the number of losses since the start of the level, this bet is used.

The Win Goal/Loss Goal column represents the number of wins (or losses) necessary since starting the level to advance to the next level. Wins and losses cancel each other so, for example, WIN, LOSS, WIN,
represents one win, not two. The win goal/loss goal has a slightly different meaning on the last defined level. When the last goal is met the betting level will reset to level 1. Therefore if you want to stay on the last level
until a stop loss is met you should enter "99" in the Win Goal/Loss Goal of the last defined level.


The Stop Loss/Stop Win column represents the number of losses or wins that trigger a stop. Once a stop is triggered, betting begins at the first level. The exact interpretation of this stop is defined by the Stop loss
definition radio buttons.

The Betting Sequence on Series of Losing/Winning Hands fields represents the player's bet size once he starts losing on a particular level (or winning if levels are advanced based on losses), before the stop has
been triggered. If levels are advanced based on wins and the player lost his first hand on a level and the stop loss was not triggered, the bet size for the next round of play would be defined by the 1 column. If he lost
his second hand, the bet size would be defined by the 2 column. If he won his third hand, column 1 would define his next bet once again. In other words, the column that represents the number of losses from the
highest bankroll obtained on this level will represent his next bet size, until his stop loss is triggered. If he is currently at his highest level, the bet size used will be the value specified in the Bet Size column. This
means that if the stop loss definition is From highest bankroll, the maximum number of losing sequences would be: num Stop Loss - 1. If the stop loss definition is From start of level, the maximum number of
losing sequences would be: num Stop Loss - 1 + num Win Goal - 1.


Theories
Many players adopt this type of betting system. Even players who play their hunches tend to increase their bet size when they are winning and decrease it when they are losing. There have been various books
published claiming such progressive betting schemes that are "guaranteed" to win. Many claim that their systems will win in just about any gambling game in the casino from blackjack to craps to roulette.

Be very skeptical of such systems. There doesn't exist any progressive betting systems that give the player any advantage in games where the outcomes are completely random (such as roulette and craps).
Blackjack is a little more complicated however. The results may not be completely random if the shuffles are not completely random. Therefore maybe once a winning streak starts it will tend to continue (which is
necessary for these systems to work). But be very careful about using such a system and please check the system out using Sage Blackjack's simulation mode (graphics turned off) with such a betting system
defined before risking your hard earned money at the blackjack tables.

end snippet.........

 

[jomoats]

I’m a member of Guru.com so I decided to check out that listing. It was pretty vague, and I’m still not really sure what it is from the description. Are these excerpts from the listing you’re talking about?

“To develop a specific simulator(software) that would be made available to approx. 100 million customers and numerous governments worldwide…There is some urgency on the social side for this product but not on it's broad customer appeal until the target customers are aware of it.”

It is just for a BJ simulator that handles progression systems? That’s incredibly simple to program. The part that really sours the deal is this:

It would be a simulator that handles progression betting systems, not specifically BJ. It would be odds specific rather than game specific.
Money values would be applied to the wins and losses spewed out by the simulator to show the system user the probable outcome. He would see in black and white what his or her chances of winning would be if they continue.
Being told something isn't going to work and actually seeing for themselves is important to players. They could also see how their systems would work aganist lower or even higher odds.

[

I]“All development(documented costs) would be covered through raised monies, if successful…Only those who will work for uncertain future payments need apply.”[/I]

About 10% of the worlds population gambles and it's probably higher. Buying a simulator is cheaper than trying their systems out in a casino with real money. Should be a good incentive to a competent programmer.

You’re going to have a hard time finding competent computer programmers willing to risk their paycheck on a progression system. Even then, the days of Eudemonic enterprises are long gone.

-Sonny-[/QUOTE

You maybe right, but rather than guess what programmers will do, I prefer to
ask. Some may see it as a chance to develop a worthwhile product that would appeal to a very large market and could end up being very well paid for their effort. We'll have to wait and see.
jomoats

 

[Sonny]

About 10% of the worlds population gambles and it's probably higher. Buying a simulator is cheaper than trying their systems out in a casino with real money. Should be a good incentive to a competent programmer.

In my opinion, the problem is that most people who develop progression systems won’t accept the results of a computer simulation. I mean, CVData and Sage software both support types of progression systems but I’ve never heard of anyone actually using them to test progression systems. In fact, I’ve often heard people say that they have “mathematical proof” of their system or that it has been "adequately tested" but it is never true. In fact, I’ve seen may progression developers get very upset when they see the final results. They say that it is wrong, or that you can’t trust computers, or that the software doesn’t accurately simulate “real world” conditions. Basically, they refuse to acknowledge the truth even when it is clear. System developers will not be interested in this software, and they may even be very upset about it when people actually start analyzing their systems with it.

But what about the players? Again, I don’t think that most progression players are concerned with the math of the game. They expect to lose a little money now and then but they probably won’t put any effort into buying software or running sims to see what the odds against them are. They just want to play BJ and have fun. If they really wanted to analyze the systems then it would be easy enough to learn the math and write a quick computer program to test it. In my opinion, if the demand were there then the software would already exist. So far nobody has publicly put forth the effort to analyze their progression system and I doubt most people would care to.

To be honest, I just don’t think the demand exists for this type of software. I may be wrong, but I just don’t see many progression players searching for mathematical validation and the system developers won’t accept it once they see it. Most people who use progression systems aren’t very interested in mathematical research. There are a few, but I don’t think there are enough to make the software marketable.

-Sonny-

 

[Sonny]

Out of curiosity, what sort of stats do you think progression players would be interested in? It seems like their probability of winning a certain trip (number of hours) would be of interest, and maybe the probability of going broke during that trip as well. Maybe the average loss would be good too. What else? What do you think the progression players would want to know about their systems? It seems like most of that could be done using straight math without any software.

-Sonny-

 

[jomoats]

That's a good question to ask all progression players.

Out of curiosity, what sort of stats do you think progression players would be interested in? It seems like their probability of winning a certain trip (number of hours) would be of interest, and maybe the probability of going broke during that trip as well. Maybe the average loss would be good too. What else? What do you think the progression players would want to know about their systems? It seems like most of that could be done using straight math without any software.

-Sonny-

I think most progression players strive for the certainty not probability of winning. Their systems are supposed to handle any situation. How long it takes to win a certain amount would be important. If they go broke, their certain that something is wrong with the system and they will tinker with it to cover the situation that caused the loss or abandon it. The extremes are important to progression players because that's what they make allowances for and take advantage of to win. Average loss doesn't really tell us anything and hides the extremes.

Some stats:
What was the systems best performance?
What was the systems worst performance?
How long a losing series lasted?
How long a winning series lasted?
How many losing sessions in a row?
How many winning sessions in a row?
How many times the system started over?
How much their up or down after 100 hands,500,1000, 2000,3000 etc.?
How often did the system win or lose a certain amount?

They basically want confirmation that their system works. Like you say they may not like or believe the simulated results, but when their actual playing gives them the same results, they'll soon develop a fondness for simulators.

 

[Sonny]

I think most progression players strive for the certainty not probability of winning.

I agree, and that is exactly the problem. There will never be certainty. Using a progression system will never show a positive advantage, never. The best a progression player can hope for is a large probability of winning and a small probability of going broke. There will never be certainty of a profit because they have a negative expectation. You shouldn’t need software to tell you that.

Some stats:
What was the systems best performance?
What was the systems worst performance?

That can be determined by simply looking at the standard deviation. So software required.

How much their up or down after 100 hands,500,1000, 2000,3000 etc.?

That’s just the EV of the system. Again, no sim required.

How long it takes to win a certain amount would be important.

Again, that’s simple EV.

How often did the system win or lose a certain amount?

Those questions can be answered using the binomial distribution. If you want the probability of winning (or losing) $X or more then you can use a standard z-score.

How long a losing series lasted?
How long a winning series lasted?
How many losing sessions in a row?
How many winning sessions in a row?
How many times the system started over?

Those would require a simulation, but they are all pretty irrelevant. The main things a progression player should want to know is his likelihood of winning vs. his likelihood of going broke. Nothing else should matter. He is playing at a disadvantage and trying to “beat the odds.” All he should care about is his probability of getting lucky.

If they go broke, their certain that something is wrong with the system and they will tinker with it to cover the situation that caused the loss or abandon it

Just because the player goes broke doesn’t mean that the system is a failure. If the player doesn’t understand the variance of the game then he could easily go broke by overbetting his bankroll even though he has an advantage. That’s why it is so important to understand variance and know your risk-of-ruin before you play. Short-term failure or success is absolutely no indicator of advantage. I mean, isn’t that why you want the simulator in the first place?

They basically want confirmation that their system works.

Unfortunately, they’ll never get it. Do you really think people are going to pay for software that tells them they are losers?

-Sonny-

 

[jomoats]

Progression players take a pragmatic approach to the games.

Counters take a theoretical approach. To compare the two, you need a simulator to see who's right. Until progression players have access to simulators, the different approaches can't be compared. Counters have their EV in the game, while progression players have their EV in the progression.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

jomoats

 

[Sonny]

Counters take a theoretical approach. To compare the two, you need a simulator to see who's right.

No you don’t. Math is not just theoretical, it is factual. It will show you all possible outcomes in the real world. It is more precise than simulation and often much faster as well.

Even so, the fallacy of progression systems are so obvious that they can be shown without using any math, only common sense. To believe that a progression system can produce a positive expectation is to ignore 400 years of knowledge and proof. Luckily, that ignorance can be easily erased with only a few minutes of research. I urge you to read the articles at the top of this forum. They explain these fallacies in words that anyone can understand. They are arranged with the simple, logical articles on the top and the detailed, math-oriented articles at the bottom. If you are going to play in modern day casinos then you should be equipped with modern day knowledge.

Until progression players have access to simulators, the different approaches can't be compared.

Sure, they can. As I showed above, the results can easily be compared mathematically without any simulation. All it takes is a little research and a little knowledge.

It always surprises me that progression developers are willing to spend several months (and even years!) manually playing many thousands of hands but won’t spend a few hours learning about math. A little research could save years of wasted time, energy and money.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all.

Back at ya’.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

Out of curiosity, what sort of stats do you think progression players would be interested in?
That’s just the EV of the system. Again, no sim required.
Again, that’s simple EV.
Those questions can be answered using the binomial distribution. If you want the probability of winning (or losing) $X or more then you can use a standard z-score.
Those would require a simulation, but they are all pretty irrelevant. The main things a progression player should want to know is his likelihood of winning vs. his likelihood of going broke. -Sonny-

The stuff I get a kick out of is setting a session goal with a certain bankroll betting in a certain way and a defined loss point - maybe usually starting bankroll and how often one succeeds with a winniing session etc. Stuff like the Wiz's 8% system etc.

And then maybe an overall sim to see how many hands it took to go negative.
I mean even that guy's system who lost to the Wiz I think was still positive after like 170000 hands.

Since, ultimately, it's the likely longevity of the system that interests me.

Anyway, without a sim, I think some of the math you propose above can get pretty sticky when it's tough to know average bet, etc. Some of these systems seem to get pretty complicated lol.

I guess the good thing about a sim is it would at least force you to be exact in defining your system lol.

 

[Canceler]

I mean even that guy's system who lost to the Wiz I think was still positive after like 170000 hands.

...on that trial! I can't imagine there is anything magical about the system that keeps it alive for 170,000 hands. Maybe if they tried it again it would fail after 1700 hands, or 17.

 

[Kasi]

...on that trial! I can't imagine there is anything magical about the system that keeps it alive for 170,000 hands. Maybe if they tried it again it would fail after 1700 hands, or 17.

And maybe it would last 700,000 hands the next time lol.

But you're right we don't actually know.

Anyway, I suspect it may be a point more or less that even if you ran the million hand sim 1000 times might represent approximately a point where half the time it lasts longer and half the time it lasts less. If so, that is the magic of that system.

Anyway even a flat-betting BS player in a normal crappy game might still show a profit 1 in 16 times after 170,000 hands. That's the magic of the "flat-betting BS" system lol.

You seem reluctant to acknowledge that any given betting system has "magic" in that they do alter the liklihood of being ahead after a certain number of attempts if one takes the chance of losing more less frequently.

Perhaps you mean no betting system has magic in it because eventually it will lose. And I have no problem with that.

But, maybe for some people, who visit Vegas once a year, bring a certain amount of money, maybe would like to win a little and not really care if they lost what they brought, there are a lot of different ways to win that certain amount and a lot of different chances of winning that amount depending on how you bet.

Maybe even much greater lilklihood of winning that amount in that limited time compared to betting that same bankroll as an AP.

 

[sagefr0g]

...................Maybe even much greater lilklihood of winning that amount in that limited time compared to betting that same bankroll as an AP.

i wonder about that. i mean if say some one just uses such a hypothetical progression or betting system for some typical amount of time a 'vacation' gambler might play and that person uses some set amount of money in that play over that time and then an AP applies his skills using the same amount of money over the same amount of time and game type ...... well i'd expect the AP would have the greater liklihood of winning the greater amount.
after all the bet system player is blind to any advantage while the AP puts the money into favored situations. i suppose it could play out that simply no advantages present or that if they did that negative fluctuation might sink the AP and possibly the bet system player might experience luck. then the vice-a-versa situation could occur also. but if you had to bet on the two wouldn't you put your money on the one making the favored bets?

 

[Kasi]

i wonder about that.

I wonder too lol.

And, like u say, it probably depends on the game etc.

But, maybe in general, somebody taking $5K to Vegas for a weekend, week, whatever, as if that's a lifetime roll he will take his chances of losing, will probably be overbetting his roll in the first place. If he's smart enough to maybe find a game that $5K allows for a full-Kelly bet, he's still facing a very large chance of losing x percent of his bankroll. Maybe betting 20 times his min bet as an avg bet if he's back-counting some crappy 6/8 shoe. So maybe making expected 2 to 2.5 min bets an hour with a large likllihood of finishing in a pretty big range of that. Otherwise maybe making 1 min-unit an hour.

Not to mention maybe you only take $2000 in which case you're most likely insane to even bother "APing" it and, while you may win a few expected dollars, it's not going to be very many min units/hour.

Or would you rather take your chances taking a 1000 min-unit roll to a $5-$2500 crap table and Oscar Grind it up where you will win $5 4249 out of 4250sessions kind of thing.

Even the cancellation system will win 10 units 98.7% of the time with a 1000 unit roll with an avg of like 20 trials per session playing craps. Although, granted, avg bet per session might be alot higher in terms of min bet. Even a 50 unit roll will win 10 units over 80% of the time. Can you envision an AP player with a 50 min-bet unit ($250) roll winning 10 units 80+% of the time? He couldn't even sit down at a $5 table.

So, one can play with the numbers, on a hourly basis or absolute dollar basis and pick your poison from there lol.

Anyway, I'm probably full of u-know-what, and alot of other stuff at this late hour lol, and welcome any thoughts on the matter.