Software for Progression Systems?

[sagefr0g]

I wonder too lol.

............................

there must be one heck of a lot of factors to consider for the 'vacation' gambler. it's like the rule of thumb that anything can happen in the short term shoots the hell out of just about any direction one puts on some idea of how to best approach the possibilities.
for example if i was asked which game should i play when i go to the casino by a friend. i'd have to say i dunno but if you play blackjack you will be playing against the lowest house advantage of all the games. but i'd have to warn him that since you'll only be playing for a few hours that low dis-advatage you will be playing against may turn into a rather big dis-advantage or a big advantage depending on the mood lady luck is in tonight lol.
for sure the friend would have to play at least enough so that there would be a good chance of realizing some double downs, splits and blackjacks. but even then his prospects are still tenuous.
i guess though at least one could say that for the 'vacation' gambler playing blackjack that really the variance of the game is more his friend than the what ever particular rule set for the game he happens to sit down at, hmm well except maybe for 6/5 i guess or the rare luck of finding 2/1 game. i guess i really don't know. but i think that regardless how such a non-ap might bet that it is just going to be luck that has the greatest impact on him in the short term. that being the case if he wants to have a chance of winning more than a flat better could hope to win then he'd have to vary his bets in some way. so the question arises that if you are going to more or less blindly vary your bets is there some way of doing that which holds an advantage in the short term over what ever other variations of betting holds.
i sure don't know

 

[dacium]

I am a programmer and would be happy to program your system. I find progression systems interesting. I have yet to find one that works (indeed I have seen mathematics that prove they can't). But I am always interested to see progressions that have a +ve expectation for the majority of possible shuffles, especially since human shuffles are not truely random.

 

[Kasi]

but i think that regardless how such a non-ap might bet that it is just going to be luck that has the greatest impact on him in the short term.

Well of course there's always luck involved but, on the other hand, it can be proven thru sims that betting a certain way, say the cancellation system, with a certain number of units of bankroll, say 1000 units, will win, say, 10 units, 98.7% of the time on the pass bet at craps.

So the probability of winning a goal vs losing a roll is based in math.

 

[Kasi]

I am a programmer and would be happy to program your system. I find progression systems interesting.

Oscar's Grind seems to be a topic at the moment - maybe, as a start, try to program that at a $1-$500 crap table pass-line bet with an adequate bankroll and see how often one will win that one unit quiiting when the required bet would exceed table limit.

Just seems easier, as a start, than BJ lol.

 

[miplet]

Or would you rather take your chances taking a 1000 min-unit roll to a $5-$2500 crap table and Oscar Grind it up where you will win $5 4249 out of 4250sessions kind of thing.

You will reach the table max 1 out of 4250. Your bankroll of $5000 would be long gone by them. From here (Archive copy)

Julian Braun's computer studies showed the prababilites a house limit when the limit was 500 times the smallest allowable bet would only be once in 4,250 sessions. Braun's calculations also showed that bucking a $1.00 to $500.00 house limit, the average loss (because the progression would reach the house limit) would be over $13,000.00.

 

[Kasi]

You will reach the table max 1 out of 4250. Your bankroll of $5000 would be long gone by them. From here (Archive copy)

Thanks - I thought it won that often.

Makes me wonder if the average loss was $13k, what was lowest loss and highest loss.

Guess it'd likely be many thousands of throws before you even got thru that many sessions.

And you probably have a 30+% chance of not getting that losing session in the first 4250 sessions anyway?

And, if the average loss is 13000 units, all I'd lose is my 1000 unit roll anyway and by then maybe I've won 1000 sessions.

Although I have no idea what bankroll they actually used - maybe a lot more than 1000 units apparentlly lol.

So maybe you won't win that often with a 1000 unit roll.

Anyway it is what it is when you assume whatever. But eventually you'll be losing that 1.4% of total bets lol.

Still, if all uwant is 10 units, seems likely you'll make it. More likely than flat betting.

 

[miplet]

I take no resposibility for any progamming errors or, php's random number generator.
Oscar's Grind program
Any questions, comments, and suggestions are welcome.

 

[Kasi]

Any questions, comments, and suggestions are welcome.

I don't care what they say about you - U DA Man :grin:

Anyway, I assume it's for a pass-line craps bet with a round being a w/l decision and a trial being a session where you end up 1 unit ahead, right?

What are the odds lines about? Could I set stop-loss limits here?

I assume you begin each trial/session with the same unit roll and a loss would mean a loss of starting roll?

Any chance for avg rounds per trial or avg units bet per session? Actually don't even worry about it because then I'd be asking for everything lol.

Maybe, I've been thinking, that 4249 out of 4250 was assuming an almost unlimited roll - how else to have an avg loss of 13000 units?

Anyway, just something to have fun with.

Is it possible to do this in a spreadsheet?

Next up - the cancellation system win x units or die trying lol!

OK - now I get the odds lines lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

Well of course there's always luck involved but, on the other hand, it can be proven thru sims that betting a certain way, say the cancellation system, with a certain number of units of bankroll, say 1000 units, will win, say, 10 units, 98.7% of the time on the pass bet at craps.

So the probability of winning a goal vs losing a roll is based in math.

really i've never heard of this sort of thing. where can one read up on this stuff?
but i guess that 0.03% of the time would be a really big loser right?

 

[Kasi]

really i've never heard of this sort of thing. where can one read up on this stuff?
but i guess that 0.03% of the time would be a really big loser right?

Well, in this case, I guess 1.3% (that 0.03% was a little too fuzzy for me lmao) of the time you would lose your starting bankroll of 1000 units lol.

What's going on tonite? All of a sudden Aslan might buy some sim software, EZ Rhino is simming and realizing 8D games pretty much suck, and you suddenly act like this is news even though I'm pretty sure I've said it all before

Next thing you know my wife might start paying attention. OK - I go too far

Anyway, that's the whole basic point - increasing the liklihood of an x unit win betting a certain way with so many units of bankroll. Basically, exchanging alot of winning sessions versus a few losing ones. Along with, often, a high avg bet and, perhaps, alot of avg trials per session.

Then you decide if it's worth it kind-of-thing.

Anyway I too wish there was more of this stuff around so one could fool around with it but I just come across stuff and tuck it away with an eye toward maybe layering my bankroll and unit size so, if I lose at a lower level, I can come back with a higher, but, relatively the same proportionally, unit level. Maybe even 3 or 4 times.

Anyway, in this case, it's easy - just look up "Cancellation Betting System" at The Wiz's site lol.

 

[miplet]

I don't care what they say about you - U DA Man :grin:

Anyway, I assume it's for a pass-line craps bet with a round being a w/l decision and a trial being a session where you end up 1 unit ahead, right?

yep and yep and yep

What are the odds lines about? Could I set stop-loss limits here?

They are used to figure out the odds of winning a round. You could use 1 and 2 for a coin flip or 18 and 38 for a 00 roulette wheel betting on red.

I assume you begin each trial/session with the same unit roll and a loss would mean a loss of starting roll?

Yep and yep.

Any chance for avg rounds per trial or avg units bet per session? Actually don't even worry about it because then I'd be asking for everything lol.

Sure why not on the average rounds. Average bet might exeed the max I can store for a number, but I'll look in to it.

Maybe, I've been thinking, that 4249 out of 4250 was assuming an almost unlimited roll - how else to have an avg loss of 13000 units?

Yes, that was using an unlimited bankroll. However, I get around 3799 out of 3800 in my program. I can check average units too if you want.

Anyway, just something to have fun with.

Is it possible to do this in a spreadsheet?

Next up - the cancellation system win x units or die trying lol!

OK - now I get the odds lines lol.

I have no clue how to do it in a spreadsheet. The Wizard of Odds has info on the cancellation system here

 

[sagefr0g]

Well, in this case, I guess 1.3% (that 0.03% was a little too fuzzy for me lmao) of the time you would lose your starting bankroll of 1000 units lol.

What's going on tonite? All of a sudden Aslan might buy some sim software, EZ Rhino is simming and realizing 8D games pretty much suck, and you suddenly act like this is news even though I'm pretty sure I've said it all before

Next thing you know my wife might start paying attention. OK - I go too far

Anyway, that's the whole basic point - increasing the liklihood of an x unit win betting a certain way with so many units of bankroll. Basically, exchanging alot of winning sessions versus a few losing ones. Along with, often, a high avg bet and, perhaps, alot of avg trials per session.

Then you decide if it's worth it kind-of-thing.

Anyway I too wish there was more of this stuff around so one could fool around with it but I just come across stuff and tuck it away with an eye toward maybe layering my bankroll and unit size so, if I lose at a lower level, I can come back with a higher, but, relatively the same proportionally, unit level. Maybe even 3 or 4 times.

Anyway, in this case, it's easy - just look up "Cancellation Betting System" at The Wiz's site lol.

like my fuzzy math huh? lol, it was late and after i posted it i realized it should have been 1.3 , either that or the numbers were really out of wack lol. but i just fell asleep.
anyway i'm looking over this cancellation stuff on the wiz site.....
i just never really seriously examined that sort of thing as it's known that long term the prospects are pretty dismal.
but it's interesting because if such a system might improve short term prospects then it one has to wonder if a way to fit that to long term advantage play would be possible.

 

[k_c]

O. Grind program

Oscar's Grind seems to be a topic at the moment - maybe, as a start, try to program that at a $1-$500 crap table pass-line bet with an adequate bankroll and see how often one will win that one unit quiiting when the required bet would exceed table limit.

Just seems easier, as a start, than BJ lol.

I'm not much interested in progression systems because they really don't do anything to long term expectation. However, I had some time to kill so I took a shot at writing a simulation for Oscar's Grind using any fixed EV from -99.99% to +99.99%. It requires input of a bankroll and a goal. Both the bank and goal need to be <= 500 units. Larger numbers than that can cause run-time errors because of a call stack overflow (too much unfinished info being processed.) The 500 unit limit seems to work, but I'm not sure if it always will. Zip file is attached. Running the program requires msvbvm60.dll in the system directory of your computer. It should always be there on most any Microsoft OS, so I think that basically all that needs to be done is to simply execute the program.

Disclaimer - I think the program is accurate, but there is no guarantee. It's a small step into the exciting field of Voodoo research. :grin:

k_c

 

[jomoats]

Tried your program

I'm not much interested in progression systems because they really don't do anything to long term expectation. However, I had some time to kill so I took a shot at writing a simulation for Oscar's Grind using any fixed EV from -99.99% to +99.99%. It requires input of a bankroll and a goal. Both the bank and goal need to be <= 500 units. Larger numbers than that can cause run-time errors because of a call stack overflow (too much unfinished info being processed.) The 500 unit limit seems to work, but I'm not sure if it always will. Zip file is attached. Running the program requires msvbvm60.dll in the system directory of your computer. It should always be there on most any Microsoft OS, so I think that basically all that needs to be done is to simply execute the program.

Disclaimer - I think the program is accurate, but there is no guarantee. It's a small step into the exciting field of Voodoo research. :grin:

k_c

Must be an error in your program, because it shows positive results even with a 99% negative ev.

 

[k_c]

Must be an error in your program, because it shows positive results even with a 99% negative ev.

Are you sure you're inputting -99% and not -.99%

I just tried it with a -99.00% EV, 10 unit bank, and goal of 20 units. I tried it 10 times and got 10 failures, meaning loss of entire bank. It's still theoretically possible to succeed with a -99.00% EV, but extremely unlikely. Maybe you input -00.99% for the EV. In that case it is likely you would have a reasonable chance of some successes. There are 2 text boxes in which to input the EV. They are separated by a decimal point. For example, if you input 99 in each text box, that means the EV = 99.99%. If you input 99 in the second text box and nothing in the first, that means EV = 00.99%. If you input 99 in the first and nothing in the second, that means EV = 99.00% If you want the EV you input to be positive, click the "pos EV" radio button. If you want the EV you input to be negative, click the "neg EV" radio button.

k_c

 

[miplet]

Must be an error in your program, because it shows positive results even with a 99% negative ev.

It think it is because you don't have the msvbvm60.dll file. I get the same thing, then I checked, and I don't have that file.

 

[k_c]

It think it is because you don't have the msvbvm60.dll file. I get the same thing, then I checked, and I don't have that file.

You can get the file here http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyId=7B9BA261-7A9C-43E7-9117-F673077FFB3C&displaylang=en.

k_c

 

[Kasi]

I'm not much interested in progression systems because they really don't do anything to long term expectation. k_c

I don't blame you - I just get curious as to how long is "long-term" and at what point a system is likely to finally realize it's neg EV.

Anyway, thanks for the effort.

Who needs progression software when we have you and miplet around

So, I put in a 500 unit roll, with a 200 unit goal and a -1.41 EV (for craps pass bet) and twice I get 100 successes in a row.

Does that mean I won 1 unit 200 sessions in a row and then did it again 99 more times? Twice?

Doesn't seem overly likely I win 200*100 units twice and I still haven't lost my starting 500 unit roll and I'm up 40,000 units?!

Or maybe, if I win once, I now have a 501 unit roll?

Anyway, glad you got a little bored

 

[k_c]

I don't blame you - I just get curious as to how long is "long-term" and at what point a system is likely to finally realize it's neg EV.

Anyway, thanks for the effort.

Who needs progression software when we have you and miplet around

So, I put in a 500 unit roll, with a 200 unit goal and a -1.41 EV (for craps pass bet) and twice I get 100 successes in a row.

Does that mean I won 1 unit 200 sessions in a row and then did it again 99 more times? Twice?

Doesn't seem overly likely I win 200*100 units twice and I still haven't lost my starting 500 unit roll and I'm up 40,000 units?!

Or maybe, if I win once, I now have a 501 unit roll?

Anyway, glad you got a little bored

With a 500 unit roll and a 200 unit goal, you have met your goal before even starting. That's what the program is reporting.:grin: I had a feeling that would be a source of confusion, but I was too lazy to program that in. Just pretend a message appears saying you already have met your goal any time bank >= goal.

k_c

 

[k_c]

Must be an error in your program, because it shows positive results even with a 99% negative ev.

It think it is because you don't have the msvbvm60.dll file. I get the same thing, then I checked, and I don't have that file.

Another possibility is if you have input bank >= goal then the program considers that an automatic success for any EV as Kasi suggested. Essentially you have succeeded because you don't have to risk anything at all to attain your goal.

k_c