Somebody set me straight please!

Z

Z

Member
Let me apologize in advance to zg because my question arose as a result of online BJ.

I was rather alarmed when I deposited $250 into an online casino last night that offered to match it and later last night I cashed out $865 (having been over $900 at one point). It was alarming because the deviation was so huge and could have easily gone the other way...or could it?

Question:
There is a predetermined amount of action that I needed to play, say $4000. Deviation is a function of n, or the number of hands played. In a case like above I need to make n as large as possible, as to minimize the deviation. So I was betting $5 per hand prepared to play 800 hands. I was up after a short while, and increased my bet (to $10), lowered my n and increased my deviation. Thus the huge deviation at the end.
I am almost certain that I am being stupid. But in a case with a predetermined amount of action and a desire to "break even" (which in online stunts means up 100%), I want to increase my deviation when I am above the break even point, and decrease it when I am below my desired break-even point. I.e. I'd rather be up 5 $10 hands then $2 ones and rather be down 5 $2 hands than $10.

OK!

Does this make any sense?? (I think not but I can't figure out why)
Is it possible to increase upside deviation and decrease downside???

Thanks,
Z
 
T

The Mayor

Well-Known Member
>I was rather alarmed when I deposited $250 into an online casino last night that offered to match it and later last night I cashed out $865 (having been over $900 at one point).

This is very bad online style. You will quickly get barred from many online casinos. You have to play a little each day, wait a while, then cash out. I hope your name isn't already on one of the lists because of this!

>It was alarming because the deviation was so huge and could have easily gone the other way...or could it?

Yes, you could have lost $800. But let me say, that you experienced a very rare win betting $5 to $10. A win of $800 means you were winning at a rate of almost 20% over 4000 hands. That's the kind of event that you are not likely to see again in your lifetime.

Question:
>There is a predetermined amount of action that I needed to play, say $4000. Deviation is a function of n, or the number of hands played. In a case like above I need to make n as large as possible, as to minimize the deviation. So I was betting $5 per hand prepared to play 800 hands.

Good strategy. For online BJ, you should bet as little as possible. In playing MG sites, I bet $2 or $4, and could get the required action usually in about an hour.

>I was up after a short while, and increased my bet (to $10), lowered my n and increased my deviation. Thus the huge deviation at the end.

No, the huge deviation at the end was not due to your $10 bets. It was due to good luck!

>I am almost certain that I am being stupid. But in a case with a predetermined amount of action and a desire to "break even" (which in online stunts means up 100%), I want to increase my deviation when I am above the break even point, and decrease it when I am below my desired break-even point. I.e. I'd rather be up 5 $10 hands then $2 ones and rather be down 5 $2 hands than $10.

Your strategy, in the long run, will not increase your winnings. Instead, it will decrase the number of big wins, but they will be bigger than otherwise. Thus, you will get fewer big days (but they will be bigger than otherwise), and more mildly losing days. This is a strategy that would depress me. I would rather get my paycheck safely.

SUMMARY: YOU ARE NOT INCREASING YOUR EV, THUS YOUR STRATEGY HAS NO PRACTICAL VALUE. THIS STRATEGY WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF DAYS YOU LOSE, BUT THE LOSSES WILL BE SMALLER ON AVERAGE, AND DECREASE THE NUMBER OF DAYS YOU WIN, BUT THE WINS WILL BE LARGER ON AVERAGE.

Great question!

--Mayor
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Rob McG has a strategy for this, I beleive...

... I think it involves the illusive 'McG's Grind' but better that he explain it. Btw, I like the flux-signature that Z's approach creates. zg(yechh eBJ!)
 
Z

Z

Member
Thanks Mayor!

I also spoke with a number of friends about this and have thought about it more on my own. It just seems as deceiving as the gambler's ruin problem...
One thing I think you may have misunderstood though, I started with $250, got $250. I was only up at the peak maybe 40 hands of $10 each and my n was only about 500. That does not seem like a once a lifetime event.
I'll refer to the non BJ board to solicit additional advice on online gaming. I hope my career isn't over yet...I just started.

Z
 
Z

Z

Member
Re: Rob McG has a strategy for this, I beleive...

Btw, I like the flux-signature that Z's approach creates.

What does this mean?

Z
 
R

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
I am out on the town and responding to this question on my palm pilot, going to see the movie Drum Line.

"I was rather alarmed when I deposited $250 into an online casino last night that offered to match it and later last night I cashed out $865 (having been over $900 at one point). It was alarming because the deviation was so huge and could have easily gone the other way...or could it?"

Well yes, the game could have gobbled up your $5 bets as easily as it was spitting out cyber reds. Was this a Crypto site? Let me know which casino this is, I may have a go at them myself. I'm just about done my last site. $250 in $500 sticky bonus, and up to $975.

"Question:
There is a predetermined amount of action that I needed to play, say $4000. Deviation is a function of n, or the number of hands played. In a case like above I need to make n as large as possible, as to minimize the deviation. So I was betting $5 per hand prepared to play 800 hands. I was up after a short while, and increased my bet (to $10), lowered my n and increased my deviation. Thus the huge deviation at the end."

"I am almost certain that I am being stupid. But in a case with a predetermined amount of action and a desire to "break even" (which in online stunts means up 100%), I want to increase my deviation when I am above the break even point, and decrease it when I am below my desired break-even point. I.e. I'd rather be up 5 $10 hands then $2 ones and rather be down 5 $2 hands than $10.

"OK!

"Does this make any sense?? (I think not but I can't figure out why)
Is it possible to increase upside deviation and decrease downside???

You are making perfect sense to me. This means you should see a doctor SOON! ;> Your diviance is smaller than I thought because of your $10 bets. A few good double downs and splits and you can easily be up 40u. You bet more when you were up and can protect yourself when you are cruising at or below your 100% take point.

Back from movie:

As the Mayor states here, smaller bets are wiser bets. I will normally play perfect basic when above the D&B line and play risk aversive BS when below. I also use other strategies. There is a time factor involved. If you have a stack of casinos to go over, then you might be in a hurry. I play in short spurts and jump from casino to casino like you would in LV.
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
This is ...

"the flux-signature' (my own artful term) -

"SUMMARY: YOU ARE NOT INCREASING YOUR EV, THUS YOUR STRATEGY HAS NO PRACTICAL VALUE. THIS STRATEGY WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF DAYS YOU LOSE, BUT THE LOSSES WILL BE SMALLER ON AVERAGE, AND DECREASE THE NUMBER OF DAYS YOU WIN, BUT THE WINS WILL BE LARGER ON AVERAGE.
"
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Two things requested from RMcG...

... 1) a thoughtful review of DeepNET's PDA apps, and 2) a careful expalnation of how you use the Oscar-McGarvey Gring progression-betting tactic at eBJ, please. zg
 
R

Rob McGarvey

Well-Known Member
Re: Two things requested from RMcG...

1) a thoughtful review of DeepNET's PDA apps

Isn't that a "commercial" product? ;> I gave it a review in my monthly newsletter which I posted at the Card Counters Cafe. I hope to meet up with "Dan Pro" sometime this spring for a playing session and to discuss his apps in great detail. I would like to give him my PDA and watch him make the program "sing."

2) a careful expalnation of how you use the McGarvey Grind progression-betting tactic at eBJ, please. zg

You are right, I really need to do this simply for myself so that I can test it from a second party's stand point. I want a person to be able to sit down with in front of the computer and know exactly what to do next. I do by instinct. It is my brain child, as deformed or perfect as that may make it. I am finding that it reminds me of the story of "The Ugly Duckling" which ended up being a Swan.

And finally I do not want to "polute" the place with a progression of anytype. As for right now, it remains psydo science. Tomorrow it may be the "Fat Boy" that drops on you from above, or a sparkling baby clone created from the components of life itself. Can I combine winning theory components properly within the frame presented by eBJ??

Moohahahahahahahahahaha!!
Moohahahahahahahahahaha!!
Moohahahahahahahahahaha!!
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Re: Two things RMcG... **QUESTIONS -

**QUESTIONS -

1) a thoughtful review of DeepNET's PDA apps

Isn't that a "commercial" product? ;> I gave it a review in my monthly newsletter which I posted at the Card Counters Cafe. I hope to meet up with "Dan Pro" sometime this spring for a playing session and to discuss his apps in great detail. I would like to give him my PDA and watch him make the program "sing."

**Can you provide a link, I missed it, or otherwise post the review here, please? I have been feeling guilty about not successfully instigating the review after I got Dan/DeepNET to provide you with your comp-review copies. Thanx!

2) a careful expalnation of how you use the McGarvey Grind progression-betting tactic at eBJ, please. zg

I do not want to "polute" the place with a progression of anytype. As for right now, it remains psydo science.

**Oh come on - you post about it at cccfae -
-----------
Rob McGarvey Date: Mon Jan 6, 2003 6:23 pm
Message 17839
Subject: Re: Up Up and Away
"...Cashed out $470. $250 my depo, and $220 won by using McGarvey's
Grind..."
------------
**I PROMISE I won't trash it - I enjoy a good progression as much as the next - how/when/why... enquiring minds want to know!

Moohahahahahahahahahaha!!
Moohahahahahahahahahaha!!
Moohahahahahahahahahaha!!

**Full moon? zg
 
zengrifter

zengrifter

Banned
Re: Two things RMcG... **ANSWERS?? -

From: "Rob McGarvey
Date: Tue Jan 7, 2003 12:06 pm
Subject: Re: Up Up and Away ZENGRIFTER
CCCafe Message: 17846 of 17848

I responded to your questions at:

(Dead link: http://www.cardcounter.com/main.pl?read=2351)

Ask the Mayor to email you a copy of it. There must be something in
it he didn't like.

--- "Rob McGarvey wrote:
> Cashed out $470. $250 my depo, and $220 won by using McGarvey's
> Grind. I left $515 in hoping they will allow me to take a whack at
> Major Millions with their $500 and my $15.
 
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