Someone please De-Bunk this system before I take out a second mortgage

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Senacchrib

Well-Known Member
Ya

I heard that in Australia, because it is south of the Equator, that all toilets flush left to right instead of right to left, and you never get a BJ losing streak of more than 3, for the same reason. Therefore, I believe that aussie can do it :D

Jay
 
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gerald

Member
The answer to your question

The betting strategies you came up with does not work, i don't think you can last more than a hour in casino. Will just end up losing in the end, but if you try it online like yahoo or demo for some casino blackjack it seems to work. And if that is the case i suspect that the game design may be having some problem. or it might be some trap to lure you into throwing money into the pit.
 
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Payam

New Member
Alternate Strategy

aussiecounter said:
Don't.



So you can expect to win 47.5% of hands, or lose 52.5%.



Change that to 7 instead of ten, and use the exact .525 instead of .53.
0.525^7=0.010992972052001953125
So once every (1/0.01099) tries, or once every 90.96 tries.

So if a new 'round' starts after each win, as a loss would be still part of the last streak, you will lose 7 in a row once for every 90 wins.

90x$5 win= $450 right?
now your one loss goes like this:
$5($5 lost), $10($15 lost), $20($35), $40($75), $80($155), $160($315), $320($635).

So you can expect to win $450 from your many little wins, but when the big losing streak does happen, you'll lose $635, so you'll be down $185.

Ok so you say approximately every 90 tries you lose 7 times in a row. I have an idea why don't you start this way and once you will reach that losing streak you will end up at 185$ loss right? Ok here is my idea - when that happens, start with $50 instead of $5 and work your way up (by doubling). Now the probability of getting another streak of 7 times will be about 90 tries away so lets not be too optimistic and take 1/4 of 90 which will give us about 22 times (so probability of getting a streak of 7 times in a row a second time within the first 22 wins is very very slim). After the 22 wins of $50 each you will be up about 1000$. Once you reach this point start all over again with starting bet of 5 dollars until you get another streak of 7 in a row. I went to Atlantic City about 2 weeks ago and tried this strategy - but I started with 25$ bet instead of $5 - so finally I got a losing streak of 6 and I was down about $1,670. Once that happened I started with 50$ bet and it worked - I made my money plus another 1000 extra. Please let me know what you think of this system.
Click to expand...
 
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Payam

New Member
Hi

What do you mean it just does not work? From the probability that aussiecounter gave it means in the long run you will have gains if you go with my strategy. If you say aussiecounter's math is wrong then my idea will not work.
 
supercoolmancool

supercoolmancool

Well-Known Member
Payam said:
What do you mean it just does not work? From the probability that aussiecounter gave it means in the long run you will have gains if you go with my strategy. If you say aussiecounter's math is wrong then my idea will not work.
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It wont work because the casinos have a half percent advantage on every bet placed. If you are expected to lose money on every hand played then where do you expect to make your money??
 
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stinkus

Member
I won't just tell you it won't work but instead analyze your plan a little. Lets take your plan which is very scary to me.
So you play 5$ units, when you lose 7 in a row you try to recover by using $50 units.... well lets look at what CAN happen.

You lose 7 in a row at your 5$ martingale progression so you are down 635
5
10
20
40
80
160
320
-----
total 635
.

Now you jump to 50$ units to get back in the game, you need to win 13 hands at 50$, that will get your money back and an extra $15.

Here is a 7 step marti with a 50$ base bet.
50
100
200
400
800
1600
3200
-----
total 6350

If you are unlicky enough for that 7 step loss to come again at $50 units you are down a total of:

6985$

that is no small chunk of change.

Lets say you set a win goal of 100 units, which would still be high and take a long time.

You are attempting to win 500$(5$ x 100 units) but risking nearly 7000$ to do it!!! that is simply not what i would want to do.

You need to win 14/15 sessions to break even, which even if you could you get bent over the table if 2 or 3 of the so called "losing sessions" come very early on, you could be down over 20k in a very short time. The risk reward is simply too scary for me.

If you want to try to win 500$ real quick, don't do it by risking 7000. I would much rather drop a 500 dollar chip on red/black in roulette for one spin or on the don't pass line on craps. I would rather either win or lose 500 then either win 500 or lose 7000.

Here is another test you can do. download any casino and try this in play money for a long time and see the results. The hands go very fast online. So play a few sessions a day where you quit when either up 500 or down 7000 following your own rules above. Try 100 sessions and see where you are at. If you are not done a large amount of money i would guess the amonut you are up would be very minimal and not worth all the money that would have been at risk risk.

In the end it is YOUR money and you are free to do with it what you want but we are just trying to save you from getting raped by the casinos.

Ok i'm done rambling just thought i would give more of a response then simply "Don't try this".

Stinkus
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
supercoolmancool said:
It wont work because the casinos have a half percent advantage on every bet placed. If you are expected to lose money on every hand played then where do you expect to make your money??
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Exactly the way I like to think about it. We can look at a standard martingale in a game where the house has a .25% advantage. Some games have smaller house edges, but most have more than that.

Hand 1: Bet 5 dollars.
EV: -.0125 dollars

Hand 2: Bet 10 dollars.
EV: -.025

Hand 3: Bet 20 dollars.
EV: -.50

Hand 4: Bet 40 dollars.
EV: -1.00

Hand 5: Bet 80 dollars.
EV: -2.00

Etc...

Like Karl said, if you are playing with the disadvantage, how can you expect to make money by changing your bets? For a basic strategy player, every hand you play is at a disadvantage, so you always expect to lose more money by playing another hand, or betting more money than last time.
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
unlimited limits and unlimited bankrolls

I sit here and laugh at all this talk of 6, 7 or that horrible 8 hand losing streak. These guys have what, 30 hours or something of live blackjack experience? I have lost over 20 hands in a row at least 3 times and over 10 hands in a row perhaps in the multi hundreds! Try running your martingale system for 22 or 23 straight losing hands. How many millions or is it trillions do you have to bet to get your little $5 chip back, and even if you had more money than Bill Gates, you will not find a casino that would accept your bet.

I believe in a 24 combined period of play, or about every 1400 hands, one would expect to have a losing streak of 10 hands.

ihate17
 
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dacium

Well-Known Member
LOL

I think at some point we have all tried it in our younger days. I still use it even though I know it doesnt work when I need to take $80 upto $100 or something like that. But of course I loose the $80 just over 1 in 4 times ;-)
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
dacium said:
LOL

I think at some point we have all tried it in our younger days. I still use it even though I know it doesnt work when I need to take $80 upto $100 or something like that. But of course I loose the $80 just over 1 in 4 times ;-)
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You still use it even though you know it doesn't work? :whip:
 
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