Splitting 8's against 10

[sagefr0g]

thank you Ryemo
@ZeeBabar
well unfortunately there is a fly in the ointment, for the program i tried to use to answer your question with. it doesn't do all combinations of EOR for a given TC. so it can't come up with an exact indice for which one stands on 88vs10 for your game. this much can be said, there's a slight, probably a very, very slight, chance it would have been correct to stand for tc=2 (but not as an indice) just as a as luck would have it happenstance sorta thing that the combination of remaining cards was correct, see my edit: taken down due to error
just would say, there's gotta be a table of index's out there somewhere that shows the averaged ev's for splitting or standing on 8,8vs10 for your game, lol. edit: for tc=2

 

[KewlJ]

I really don't get this discussion, which as someone said is very similar to another ZeeBaBar discussion on this topic sometime in the past.

I don't mean to be critical, but I think there is some over-thinking going on by some parties here.

The 8,8 vs 10 split is just one of many plays that you just learn and do it. Don't over-think it. It's a crappy hand either way. It's a defensive split in that it's a negative EV play either way. There is just nothing sexy about a defensive split where you are losing just a little less by making the play. This play is very typical of what is the grind of card counting blackjack. No need to overanalyze or over think it.

 

[ZeeBabar]

How often does this hand occur in high TC situations? The temptation exists that you just stand on this hand and lose only one max bet rather than two. Now, if a minimum or moderate bed is out there, splitting might be the way to go. As a renowned author once said, the amount of money one would likely earn by always splitting in high TC count would buy you a hot dog (or something to that effect).

I asked the question before but this time, with 3 8's, one could lose 3 max bets. I did and I am not sure I would do it again in this situation.

 

[sagefr0g]

@KewlJ
imho, you are exactly right far as blackjack practicality goes and a concise understanding of the nitty gritty of 8,8vsT.
from my perspective, it's not so much anything to do with blackjack, although obviously it does, lol.
more for me it's an interest in more thoroughly understanding what makes advantage plays tick. reason that is interesting is because if one can understand what makes a given known advantage play tick in a general sense, then one can maybe someday understand what makes some new, previously unknown advantage play tick. just this one seemingly simple question, 8,8vsT and how it is that it is treated as it is, has shrouded behind that simplicity, all kinds of causation s , mechanisms, and combinations of probabilistic mathematical ramifications going on there.
but yep, imho you are right. put it this way, i think i know that it would be possible with kc's software to crank out the answer, by some how going through, God only knows, or maybe icountntrack only knows how many combinations of hands to get the average tc = 2 ev of all those hand combinations for either edit: hit or stand or split for 8,8vsT and come up with a number so that a decision whether it is ever called for to edit: hit or stand instead of split for 8,8vsT. but it's not worth it, as you imply, as the illustrious 18 implies. but really, someone, sometime, somewhere, must have figured it out someway, somehow, or how would we know it? thing is, i think guys like me and maybe like ZeeBabar haven't seen the tables or explicit pronunciation of that work. so, it is that one wonders.
edit: anyway, i deleted most of my posts, on the issue, because, really i think those posts were confusing the issue and i had some errors in them anyway.

 

[sagefr0g]

How often does this hand occur in high TC situations? The temptation exists that you just stand on this hand and lose only one max bet rather than two. Now, if a minimum or moderate bed is out there, splitting might be the way to go. As a renowned author once said, the amount of money one would likely earn by always splitting in high TC count would buy you a hot dog (or something to that effect).

I asked the question before but this time, with 3 8's, one could lose 3 max bets. I did and I am not sure I would do it again in this situation.

0.00151018 is the frequency for 8,8 vs 10 2deck, from Blackjack Attack page 420 3rd ed. for a das game 1st split ev -0.471245, 2nd split -0.464591, 3rd split -0.463793 for purely basic strategy

 

[Fenix]

with 3 8's, one could lose 3 max bets. I did and I am not sure I would do it again in this situation.

What if you split them 4x, then doubled on all four after drawing 3's, or 2's if the count was high enough, and then the dealer got 21 and you lost all 8 max bets? It happens. It sucks. Don't think about the potential loss or win, think about playing correctly. It's the long run we're after. It's especially important to play your max bets correctly. If you decide to stand 88v10 in the future, that's your decision, but be aware of its EV cost.

Please correct me if my math is wrong. According to sagefrOg's charts for DD DOA, the difference between standing and splitting 88v10 is -0.06613. If your max bet is $300, then you're giving up $19.84 in EV by standing. That's more than I usually spend on dinner. The EV may of course change some depending on the count, but at +2 the best decision is still to split. The frequency of the hand is infrequent, but when it does happen that's a fair bit of EV in my opinion to give up just to keep from putting out another max bet.

 

[ZeeBabar]

Fenix, you are giving up $19.84 by splitting since the probability is that you lose both bets and unlikely that you will play a million such hands to get into the long run with that hand. You have to bring the long run into reality. You lose when you do not split 10's against a 6 and give up far more than you would splitting 8's against a 10 in your lifetime because the first happens far more often.

Again, whether it's the amount of the bet or the heat, sometimes, maybe, we have to factor in other stuff.

 

[Fenix]

Fenix, you are giving up $19.84 by splitting

You are not giving up $19.84 by splitting. You are saving $19.84. Yes, by splitting you are wagering another $300 or more that you are more likely to lose than win, but you will lose less long run by splitting. If giving up $19.84 EV makes sense to you to not wager more max bets, then ok, sure, it's your money. You may want to evaluate your max bets though and get them within a range you can play comfortably. Be able to have a max bet and have it phase you no less when you lose than when you lose a minimum bet. Same with winning it. Being too attached to your chips can lead to ploppy logic or losing the count.

As for splitting 10's.. I've found very few places that tolerate it. I'd rather live to play another day than split them and have my EV changed to zero thanks to a tap. No one will think twice about splitting 8's. As the ploppys say, "always split aces and 8's." They may look at you funny if you don't split them, lol.

 

[sagefr0g]

@ZeeBabar :
just curious, no need to answer.
do you know your 'utter' risk of ruin for the overall game in question and the respective advantage you have, playing at the stakes you play at?
note: by 'utter' risk of ruin, i mean complete and utter loss of all value that you own claim to.
note: it's interesting to me that i should ask this question of anyone, as i've never computed it for myself, for any game i've taken a risk on. lol
note: reason for asking, is it seems Fenix has brought up a valid psychological point regarding the level of comfort one can play at, especially with respect to max bets, sorta thing.
note: anyway, just me maybe, i believe perhaps we unconsciously calculate such numbers as utter risk of ruin and unconsciously employ certainty equivalent sort of reasoning as we engage in risk involved actions such as playing the game in question, wherein such ruminations may well induce us to stray from the original strategy that we originally set out to employ. point being we can end up making erroneous decisions for what seem to us, good reasons.
note: pretty much, i often find myself, in the same conundrum, it seems that you are in, as i evaluate games and whether or not i want to take a shot. the jury is out, far as i'm concerned whether or not that's a bad thing, lol. it's pretty much the reason i've chosen to find other avenues of profit making other than bj. personally, i don't enjoy the 'roller coaster ride' effect, without the hope of relatively more immediate higher gratification levels, that bj offers, sorta thing.
edit: here are the conditions for which i'd like to play most any decent rules bj game:
min bet = $0.01
max bet = $10
or perhaps some similar, low, low min bet #'s
reedit: hmm, such a bet structure is in the stratosphere of wonging, no?

 

[Taff]

Would I be correct in saying that in Europe and here in the Uk the correct play is always to treat this as 16 v 10 due to the no hole card situation. This is how I've been playing it. I also stand it all the time so my play doesn't suddenly change at +1.

 

[Meistro]

That is correct in a ENHC game you would never split 88 v T. In fact, the only time you would double or split against an ace or a ten in a game where the dealer takes all bets in the event of an eventual blackjack is A,A v T.