Steep loses early on(44 hours)

[AchillesBlackjack]

Hi guys, my morale is low at the moment...But here it is
Bankroll $26,000, the game I mainly play is 8Deck, 3-2BJ, 4split, No resplit aces, No surrender, 6-6.5/8 PEN, H17. Min is $25 since Covid. Another game 2 hours away from me is same rules but S17. I am 44 hours in and down -$8403. I trained myself with Casino Verite and CVCX. Read 21st Century card counter and blackjack professional, Former Casino Dealer too. I use High Low and deviations from 0 TO 5+. That's my background to this game. According to Casino Verite I was ready. I had 3 different spreads since I had reduce because of losing/shrinking. Looking for some help, because this losing is SD3 looks like? Which seems very rare, how often I seem there after logs. I don't .play negative counts.
1st SPREAD N0=60k, ROR=4.7%, EV=28.25
TC0=25
TC1=25
TC2=2X50
TC3=2X75
TC4+=2X150
2ND spread N0=87K, ROR=7.5%, EV=17.33
TC0=25
TC1=25
TC2=2X40
TC3=2X75
TC4+=2X90
3rd SPREAD N0=37k, ROR=2%, EV=24.44
TC0=NO play unless no fleas eat the cards, otherwise must BE positive running count at least
Tc1=25
TC2=2X40
TC3=2X75
TC4+=2X90
Another spread I'm considering. Since I only have $17958 left of bankroll. Is the following
TC0=no play
TC1=25
TC2=2X25
TC3=2x40
TC4+=2X75
EV=18.07, ROR=0.5%, N0=36942

 

[Nightshifter]

Yeah... I'm down $7000 using HOPT II w/ side count of Aces at the tribal casinos here in SoCal. Not been a good start at all lol!
2 Deck games mainly.... Only casinos that offer surrender on 2 Deck by me are Sycuan and Barona.

 

[AchillesBlackjack]

Yeah... I'm down $7000 using HOPT II w/ side count of Aces at the tribal casinos here in SoCal. Not been a good start at all lol!
2 Deck games mainly.... Only casinos that offer surrender on 2 Deck by me are Sycuan and Barona.

How many hours in?

 

[Nightshifter]

How many hours in?

~ 18 hours so far! Last night I only won $150.00 after an hour... looonnnnng way to go... although I've been playing through highly negative TC shoes... think i'm going to abandon that practice.

 

[AchillesBlackjack]

~ 18 hours so far! Last night I only won $150.00 after an hour... looonnnnng way to go... although I've been playing through highly negative TC shoes... think i'm going to abandon that practice.

But you playing through negative counts seem to be able justify your results. I'm skipping them and still ending in gutter very badly... :/

 

[Nightshifter]

But you playing through negative counts seem to be able justify your results. I'm skipping them and still ending in gutter very badly... :/

eh … lost another 900 today flat betting 25 dollars within one 8 deck shoe… worst I’ve seen in a long while… only won 3 hands and pushed once :/

 

[KewlJ]

Short-term results.

The two posters in this thread are talking about 44 hours of play, the second, mentioned 18 hours of play before his latest session, so maybe 20 hours now?

These are short-term results! In the short term anything can and will happen as far as results. Even results that seem extreme to you short term, really are not. Somebody has to make up that side of the bell curve.

On another forum there is a guy, who says he is a fulltime player in Las Vegas, and has made some ok money over the long-term, but every couple weeks or months, he goes flying off the rail with some post about his short-term results of a couple days, claiming holiday weekends cheating or some other damn thing, when it really is short-term results and variance.

You can blame it on whatever you want but if you are playing a sound game, and are playing a spread and ramp that makes your play +EV for whatever game you are playing, results, no matter how extreme don't mean a damn thing until you get into 100's of hours or 10's of thousands of rounds. And even then, can still have little meaning.

Last year I played just over 40,000 rounds (or 400 hours as most of you track play by). I played double my normal stakes because I wanted to make up lost play from covid shutdowns and non-playing periods. So about half my normal rounds at double the stakes was just about my normal EV or expectation for the year, just over $80k in expectation. My actual results: $14k. Even 40,000 rounds is a small sample size that anything can and will happen. This is precisely why a large bankroll is required, to get to the longer term, where results begin to fall more in line with expectation.

Now all that said, if you really feel something is truly wrong and you are playing say an Indian Casino or some other situation that is suspect, I would stop playing that and find another game or casino to play that you feel more comfortable with. And if you don't happen to have another game nearby, then I don't know what to tell you....only play when you are out of town, or move if it is that important to you (as I did).

And by the way this bell curve thing works the other way too. Sometimes over a short period, you win far more than expectation. It just seems players don't seem to dwell and talk about that as much. Anyway, the point of my post....Blackjack card counting is a long-term proposition. In the short-term anything can and will happen. Really has little meaning. You are free to vent, but just know it has no real meaning.

 

[AchillesBlackjack]

Short-term results.

The two posters in this thread are talking about 44 hours of play, the second, mentioned 18 hours of play before his latest session, so maybe 20 hours now?

These are short-term results! In the short term anything can and will happen as far as results. Even results that seem extreme to you short term, really are not. Somebody has to make up that side of the bell curve.

On another forum there is a guy, who says he is a fulltime player in Las Vegas, and has made some ok money over the long-term, but every couple weeks or months, he goes flying off the rail with some post about his short-term results of a couple days, claiming holiday weekends cheating or some other damn thing, when it really is short-term results and variance.

You can blame it on whatever you want but if you are playing a sound game, and are playing a spread and ramp that makes your play +EV for whatever game you are playing, results, no matter how extreme don't mean a damn thing until you get into 100's of hours or 10's of thousands of rounds. And even then, can still have little meaning.

Last year I played just over 40,000 rounds (or 400 hours as most of you track play by). I played double my normal stakes because I wanted to make up lost play from covid shutdowns and non-playing periods. So about half my normal rounds at double the stakes was just about my normal EV or expectation for the year, just over $80k in expectation. My actual results: $14k. Even 40,000 rounds is a small sample size that anything can and will happen. This is precisely why a large bankroll is required, to get to the longer term, where results begin to fall more in line with expectation.

Now all that said, if you really feel something is truly wrong and you are playing say an Indian Casino or some other situation that is suspect, I would stop playing that and find another game or casino to play that you feel more comfortable with. And if you don't happen to have another game nearby, then I don't know what to tell you....only play when you are out of town, or move if it is that important to you (as I did).

And by the way this bell curve thing works the other way too. Sometimes over a short period, you win far more than expectation. It just seems players don't seem to dwell and talk about that as much. Anyway, the point of my post....Blackjack card counting is a long-term proposition. In the short-term anything can and will happen. Really has little meaning. You are free to vent, but just know it has no real meaning.

Thanks for the reply KewlJ! Sorry just seems I'm whiny baby... I was just concerned a lot because CVCX was saying the chances of this are very small when I input under "actual results". Which made me panic. I do have more games nearby, now that border is opening to USA and no testing needed anymore(very costly) for short trips. I don't suspect Casino of cheating at all... I'm left with only 2 choices now it seems. 1) Take big fat loss and move on with life and possibly regret. OR 2) Put my head down and fight back. I'm very passionate about blackjack and really want this work. I just felt like I needed some guidance.

 

[KewlJ]

Thanks for the reply KewlJ! Sorry just seems I'm whiny baby...

My intent wasn't to insinuate that you or anyone else is a whiny baby. It is quite easy for someone detached from your play and money to sit at a keyboard and tell you your losses are "no big deal". When it is your money....it seems like a bigger deal.

I am in my 18th year now (which amazes me every time I write that) and last year....let's see, let me do the math....that would make it my 17th year, I already mentioned that I had a year pretty far below expectation. Pretty far on the wrong side of that bell curve. So when casinos re-opened in June after 3 months of closure, as I stated early, I decided to double my stakes to try to make up for lost time, knowing I could get away with higher stakes due to masks and new procedures for pit folks and all.

So I immediately hit a nasty negative run, losing more than 30k, in just a couple weeks and most of it at one casinos. Because these losses were a little more than I was used to because of doubling my stakes, the first thing that jumped into my mind was that I was being cheated or or the casinos were doing something different (from the previous 16 years) that was causing me to lose like that. Of course, neither was true. I just hit some nasty variance at a higher level of play than I was used to. A negative short-term swing, maybe at an inopportune time, I don't know. And again, I wasn't a newer, inexperienced player, and still these are the things you think.

So I was just trying to say, as someone detached from your play and situation, that it may not be as unusual a run as you are thinking. But of course, I don't know you or your play. Could just as easily be you are an idiot, playing a losing game, over betting and chasing losses.

 

[KewlJ]

By the way, this sharing of experiences is exactly what I love or loved about forums. Players can read about other players that have gone through similar experiences or situations and maybe learn from them. I benefitted from that a great deal 10, 12, 15 years ago. Unfortunately, most forums have gotten far away from that sharing and helping mentality now-a-days.

 

[21forme]

By the way, this sharing of experiences is exactly what I love or loved about forums.

So much better than endless pissing matches with degenerate gamblers and pathologic liars, isn't it?

 

[KewlJ]

So much better than endless pissing matches with degenerate gamblers and pathologic liars, isn't it?

The two, loving the forums because of the sharing experiences, real experiences, and calling out pathological liars are connected as far as I am concerned. I can't stop people from lying. I happens all over the world, including on the forums. But when somebody comes along claiming winning that just can't be....can't be mathematically, can't be because that is not the way casino play works, then real players have got to be allowed to call BS. Otherwise it is just not fair to players and members that come to that forum looking for legitimate answers.

I think back 15 years ago when I first joined a blackjack forum, the original BJinfo, and think about all the real help I got, all the real knowledge and answers and experiences that were shared, and what would have happened at that time, when I was struggling to build my small bankroll, if some idiot had come along and convinced me that the way to win was progression system play, like Martingale or some other BS that defied mathematics and reality. You know damn right well, in that day and age, 15 years ago, that clown would have been run off the forum by real players.

Think back to people like JSTAT, that were running around repeatedly saying that traditional card counting didn't work and players needed to use his JSTAT count to win. Every time he made that stupid claim, legitimate players pushed back and corrected the record, just as I continue to do. Well, I am not trying to run anyone off any forums, but I will correct the record as far as these voodoo claims. My very low bar is that the math HAS to work. I think that is not only my right, but my responsibility. And I do recognize that you and most others do not necessarily agree with me. But let's not get into it any further.

 

[21forme]

But let's not get into it any further.

Fair enough.

 

[Nightshifter]

Well... this is all obvious I just started playing again and I have about ~22 hours in so far... and yes the swings are wild in the short run.... But amazing how i was flat betting and playing perfect BS for 6/8 Deck game S17 & Surrender not to mention respiting of Aces with about 80% penetration ... and losing ~$1000 in ~ 1 hr. $25 / hand... That's some extreme variance there.

Slot Lady losses ~ $1000 in 1hr @ El Cortez and she's playing BS.

Anyway... down ~ $8000 now =)

 

[Runit]

Blackjack is a weak game. I suggest playing only the best games possible and / or finding something better to do to occupy your time.