Stepping Back

[wvbjplayer]

Hi, Guys:

So I've been at this counting business for about 3 months now and, after a big win tonight, still find myself $360 in the hole. Furthermore, I'd be $1,160 in the hole if not for two big hits on craps and roulette one very lucky night about a month ago. (I very rarely play anything but bj, but had won about $500 in less than an hour and thought it best to take a little break. It was an amazing night, w/ profits significantly exceeding $1,000.) However, there do appear to be some silver linings to this otherwise rather dark cloud, to wit:

1. The above figure does not include dealer tips, cashier tips, or the occasional non-free beverage. All told, they probably total about $450, of which approx 90% constitute tips. (Yes, I know, I tip more than I should, but I'm a softie, it's good camo, and some of the pit bosses at the casino I frequent can be real assholes to their dealers.)

2. Over the last 6 trips, I'm up $1,973. For the previous 6 trips, I'd been down approx. $3,700 (and down approx. $2,400 overall). I hope this means that my abilities are improving, and that my grasp of B/S (which for all intents and purposes I'd already mastered) is now wholly instinctual.

3. I've lost about .4% of all the bets I've placed while playing blackjack (around $254,000 worth). My understanding is that, even playing perfect strategy, one can expect to suffer about a .5% disadvantage. Thus, at this point, I'm doing very slightly better (.1%) than if I were merely playing perfect B/S. I hope this is not due strictly to a lucky streak.

I use hi-lo and initially spread only 1-3, at most. (Much too small a spread, I know, but back then my BR was very small.) Now I have a much bigger BR and use about a 1-5, occasionally even 1-8 spread. I play exclusively 8D shoes w/ DAS, SS17, no resplitting of aces, and double-on-any-2 cards. No surrender, early or later. Basically AC rules, I believe.

I notice I tend to do best in moderately low or high counts. Very strange. Also, a few of my bigger wins occurred when I was keeping only a fuzzy count (i.e., I knew only whether the count was neutral, slightly high, slightly low, moderately high, moderately low, etc., w/in 2-3 and w/ a very high level of confidence). Sometimes, but not very often, I've altered my strategy in accord w/ the count. My results have been largely mixed, but overall I'd say I've helped myself a little by doing so.

Any thoughts, feedback, advice, observations, ridicule, or jokes are more than welcome.

wvbjplayer

 

[blackjack avenger]

I Think You Know This Already

As a player you are employing a weak to very weak style of play.
The games you are up against are fairly tough.
You bankroll is probably in danger.

 

[EasyRhino]

Oh man, I thought you gave up? What happened? Dish, dish!

Unfortunately, after reading your post, I think it would be appropriate to do some more raining on your parade.

The biggest worry is, perhaps, the craps and roulette betting. Cover can be important, in theory, but it is generally very costly. And if you won over $1000 playing them (and if $500 is a big BJ win), then it means that you were probably betting way too much on them. Plus, roulette especially is a game that attracts a lot of suckers. And that's damning to your prospects, just by association. In other words, there's the worry that accompanies anyone who takes up card counting... that you're still gambling with a house advantage, despite the increased mental workload.

Another gigantic concern is the strength of the game you're playing. Shoes are brutally unprofitable unless you're religiously backcounting (even then, they're still brutally boring). I suspect you're in a mostly play-all situation. I don't have the time right now to run any sort of sim, but a while back I simmed a S17 8D game using a 12x spread, and the calculated win rate was, I swear to God, only about 0.8 units per 100 hands. And that's with robot-like play and no tipping. A 5x spread, play all could quite possibly result in no positive expectation over a billion hands.

Breaking down and using a fuzzy count is also worrisome, because, well, a fuzzy count is no count at all. You should really be at the point where you can keep a real count most all of the time, even during an interminable shoe. And if you're losing it, it's probably a sign that you should cut your session short.

And finally, the tipping can really get super expensive, and it's one of the big holes in my own game that I have to police rigorously (I'm a softy). Have you tried adding up how much you tip per hour? For instance, if only were to throw a toke when you get a natural, that's going to happen about 5 times per 100 hands. How much will that add up to? How much will it be if you toke on other occassions? Now how does that compare to your expected win rate? (which is approximately zero).

Unfortunately, results over 6 sessions (good or bad) don't really indicate skill level, there's too much variance involved.

So, in conclusion, I'd say you're playing a game that is, at best, break even, but when the exacerbations of losing the count, tipping, and playing other games are factored in, you're playing with a disadvantage about as large as that placed by a perfect basic strategy player. But you might be betting more[/u[ than than if you were flat betting BS. Not a good outlook.

I recommend backcounting.

 

[moo321]

Hi, Guys:

So I've been at this counting business for about 3 months now and, after a big win tonight, still find myself $360 in the hole. Furthermore, I'd be $1,160 in the hole if not for two big hits on craps and roulette one very lucky night about a month ago. (I very rarely play anything but bj, but had won about $500 in less than an hour and thought it best to take a little break. It was an amazing night, w/ profits significantly exceeding $1,000.) However, there do appear to be some silver linings to this otherwise rather dark cloud, to wit:

1. The above figure does not include dealer tips, cashier tips, or the occasional non-free beverage. All told, they probably total about $450, of which approx 90% constitute tips. (Yes, I know, I tip more than I should, but I'm a softie, it's good camo, and some of the pit bosses at the casino I frequent can be real assholes to their dealers.)

2. Over the last 6 trips, I'm up $1,973. For the previous 6 trips, I'd been down approx. $3,700 (and down approx. $2,400 overall). I hope this means that my abilities are improving, and that my grasp of B/S (which for all intents and purposes I'd already mastered) is now wholly instinctual.

3. I've lost about .4% of all the bets I've placed while playing blackjack (around $254,000 worth). My understanding is that, even playing perfect strategy, one can expect to suffer about a .5% disadvantage. Thus, at this point, I'm doing very slightly better (.1%) than if I were merely playing perfect B/S. I hope this is not due strictly to a lucky streak.

I use hi-lo and initially spread only 1-3, at most. (Much too small a spread, I know, but back then my BR was very small.) Now I have a much bigger BR and use about a 1-5, occasionally even 1-8 spread. I play exclusively 8D shoes w/ DAS, SS17, no resplitting of aces, and double-on-any-2 cards. No surrender, early or later. Basically AC rules, I believe.

I notice I tend to do best in moderately low or high counts. Very strange. Also, a few of my bigger wins occurred when I was keeping only a fuzzy count (i.e., I knew only whether the count was neutral, slightly high, slightly low, moderately high, moderately low, etc., w/in 2-3 and w/ a very high level of confidence). Sometimes, but not very often, I've altered my strategy in accord w/ the count. My results have been largely mixed, but overall I'd say I've helped myself a little by doing so.

Any thoughts, feedback, advice, observations, ridicule, or jokes are more than welcome.

wvbjplayer

If you want to continue to play the way you're playing, that's fine. But don't kid yourself into thinking you're doing this primarily as a money making venture. Your style of play is for fun and comps, and you should enjoy it as such.

 

[wvbjplayer]

Oh man, I thought you gave up? What happened? Dish, dish!

Unfortunately, after reading your post, I think it would be appropriate to do some more raining on your parade.

The biggest worry is, perhaps, the craps and roulette betting. Cover can be important, in theory, but it is generally very costly. And if you won over $1000 playing them (and if $500 is a big BJ win), then it means that you were probably betting way too much on them.

No, I won a boxcar bet for $15 on craps my first roll out. With a payout of 30:1, I made $435, after which I immediately walked over to the roulette table, made a couple small even-money bets, hit a small quadrant bet for $80, and then, with a bet of just $10, won $350 by hitting a single number. After that I cashed in and ran w/ my $1,500 or so.

Like I said, it was an amazing night. $1,500 is fortune to me.

wvbjplayer

 

[wvbjplayer]

<<Oh man, I thought you gave up? What happened? Dish, dish!>>

Sorry to disappoint you!

<<Unfortunately, after reading your post, I think it would be appropriate to do some more raining on your parade.>>

Figures.

<<Another gigantic concern is the strength of the game you're playing. Shoes are brutally unprofitable unless you're religiously backcounting (even then, they're still brutally boring).>>

Unfortunately, there are no SD or DD games anywhere close to me. I'm stuck w/ 8D shoes. Mind you, the penetration is very good: probably about 85%.

<<I suspect you're in a mostly play-all situation.>>

Correct.

<<I don't have the time right now to run any sort of sim, but a while back I simmed a S17 8D game using a 12x spread, and the calculated win rate was, I swear to God, only about 0.8 units per 100 hands. And that's with robot-like play and no tipping. A 5x spread, play all could quite possibly result in no positive expectation over a billion hands.

Breaking down and using a fuzzy count is also worrisome, because, well, a fuzzy count is no count at all.>>

I don't use indices or anything. I have a rough idea of how much I'm prepared to bet in any given range. Normally, unless the TC is >3, I don't spread to more than twice my minimum bet. After that, I jack it up about 1 unit per increase of 2.

<<You should really be at the point where you can keep a real count most all of the time, even during an interminable shoe.>>

I can. It just normally isn't necessary b/c most of the counts start out either neutral or negative and then stay that way for the remainder of the shoe. Obviously, there's no point in keeping track of HOW negative a shoe is if the degree of negativity has no impact on your betting strategy. Thus, at any given juncture, to know that the count IS negative is enough. You don't have to keep a strict count just to know THAT, unless of course you're an idiot.

<<And if you're losing it, it's probably a sign that you should cut your session short.>>

Actually, as I said, I tend to do best when I just keep a fuzzy count and bet big when the count is substantially high. I also do well in relatively low counts. In fact, more often than not, my wins and losses occur in huge, pronounced streaks sometimes bearing no correlation to the count at all.

This has happened again and again and again. The cards start falling my way, I bet big, and clean up. When the cards quit falling my way, as inevitably they do, the count seems largely irrelevant to my win rate. The trick just seems to be to get out when you're way up. And with a big enough BR, such as I have now, you can rest virtually assured that, at some point, you'll be way up. In 20 trips, this rule has failed me only twice.

Now, don't get me wrong: I still count, despite all these observations, and normally count very carefully. I also rely on the count in calculating my bets, reservations aside. I'm just noting the trends I've witnessed.

<<And finally, the tipping can really get super expensive, and it's one of the big holes in my own game that I have to police rigorously (I'm a softy). Have you tried adding up how much you tip per hour? For instance, if only were to throw a toke when you get a natural, that's going to happen about 5 times per 100 hands. How much will that add up to? How much will it be if you toke on other occassions? Now how does that compare to your expected win rate? (which is approximately zero).>>

I tip about $25 per 5-hour session, if I do well. If I don't, I tip about $10 per 5-hour session. I'm comfortable w/ this and don't see it as a "hole in my game." I'm far from rich, but the dealers & cashiers no doubt need the money more than I do.

<<Unfortunately, results over 6 sessions (good or bad) don't really indicate skill level, there's too much variance involved.>>

In that case, we can't really conclude from my bottom line that I suck, can we? Surely, if nothing reasonably can be inferred from 6 sessions, little can be so inferred from 12, or even all 20. How many hours of play do I need to have put in to form a reliable assessment? 500? 1,000?

<<So, in conclusion, I'd say you're playing a game that is, at best, break even, but when the exacerbations of losing the count, tipping, and playing other games are factored in, you're playing with a disadvantage about as large as that placed by a perfect basic strategy player. But you might be betting more[/u[ than than if you were flat betting BS. Not a good outlook.

I recommend backcounting.[/QUOTE]>>

Not feasible where I play. However, having won 2 grand in less than a month, I think I'll keep doing what I'm doing for a while and see how it goes.

Thanks for the advice, though.

wvbjplayer

 

[sagefr0g]

Hi, Guys:
..........
I use hi-lo and initially spread only 1-3, at most. (Much too small a spread, I know, but back then my BR was very small.) Now I have a much bigger BR and use about a 1-5, occasionally even 1-8 spread. I play exclusively 8D shoes w/ DAS, SS17, no resplitting of aces, and double-on-any-2 cards. No surrender, early or later. Basically AC rules, I believe.

I notice I tend to do best in moderately low or high counts. Very strange. Also, a few of my bigger wins occurred when I was keeping only a fuzzy count (i.e., I knew only whether the count was neutral, slightly high, slightly low, moderately high, moderately low, etc., w/in 2-3 and w/ a very high level of confidence). Sometimes, but not very often, I've altered my strategy in accord w/ the count. My results have been largely mixed, but overall I'd say I've helped myself a little by doing so.

Any thoughts, feedback, advice, observations, ridicule, or jokes are more than welcome.

wvbjplayer

hey wvbjplayer lol.
everyone thought you might be in a monestary praying and maybe saving the world or something.
don't forget the offer:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=69032&postcount=9
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=69036&postcount=11
but i don't see how you can make any headway with lots of tipping, playing craps & roulette, fuzzy count with an insufficient spread, insufficient bankroll and a not so great game. your almost guaranteed to lose your entire bankroll.
didn't catch what the table min was. please tell me it's nickle tables.
well anyway i'm glad to hear you won some back. hopefully you'll figure out a way to keep that and build up your bankroll some way or at least not lose a whole bunch of money like you did before.

 

[EasyRhino]

- What's the house advantage on betting a hard 12 prop bet in craps? Isn't it like over 12%? That's many times bigger than any advantage you'd get on one hand in BJ, it's even a bigger advantage than if you could see the dealer's holecard! 12% of $15 is $1.80. You might as well have taken two bucks outside into the parking lot and set it on fire. And don't get me started on roulette.

- You need to keep a real count at the beginning of every shoe. They always start out neutral, and it often takes quite a while for any imbalance to develop (that's why shoes are so mind-numbing). And if you get a high count, you need to keep the count accurate, because the count may drop, and you need to drop your bets. Sure, if you're in a shoe, and you're significantly far into it (say halfway), and the count is tragically negative, then you can stop counting. But by that point, you're hopefully avoiding playing any hands.

- You should be at your max bet by TC of +5.

- Tipping $5/hour doesn't seem out of hand. However, depending on your play and your bet size, it might still be grim. If you were playing a shoe game, play-all, at a crowded table, spreading $5-$75, and counting conventionally, your winnings per hour might still be only $5/hour, so the tipping would just erase it. And that's playing totally by the book.

Remember, the rule of thumb with a conventional counting game is that you can only expect to win one or maybe two units per 100 hands.

- I've had crazy streaks in negative counts too. Heck, I've had more of them in neutral/negative counts than in positive ones. And the dealer's there egging me on to parlay my bets, while I'm desperately looking for any excuse to lower them without looking like a total flake to the pit boss.

- Results over six sessions can't prove you're a genius or an idiot. That's why you've got to focus on the details of the game you're playing.

An analogy: back when I was watching hockey, Patrick Roy was a great goalie. He had one huge game near the end of the season, a shutout, with a ton of blocked shots. But the day after the game, he was out on the ice practicing his technique, because he wasn't satisfied with how it felt while he was out on the ice. I think that was a year he won the Stanley Cup.

 

[mjbballar23]

sjflks

However, having won 2 grand in less than a month, I think I'll keep doing what I'm doing for a while and see how it goes.

Thanks for the advice, though.

wvbjplayer

Looks like your playing a winning game only problem is that is gonna take 1.6million hands to overcome 1 standard deviation and 6.6million hands to overcome 2 standard deviations. and in the mean time you have a 94% chance of losing everything. So you expect to make $4 per 100 hands but when you factor the craps and roulette time you've been putting in id say your EV is right near 0 probably negative and any results you see within the next 6.6million hands is just variance. It appears that we can pretty much assure you that if you continue with what your doing that you will lose everything. Even using a 1 - 8 spread ($25 - 200) in this game puts your EV = $30.88 per 100 hands and a ROR of 86.5% and a NO of 89,000 hands. Just something to think about.

 

[wvbjplayer]

Looks like your playing a winning game only problem is that is gonna take 1.6million hands to overcome 1 standard deviation and 6.6million hands to overcome 2 standard deviations. and in the mean time you have a 94% chance of losing everything. So you expect to make $4 per 100 hands but when you factor the craps and roulette time you've been putting in id say your EV is right near 0 probably negative and any results you see within the next 6.6million hands is just variance. It appears that we can pretty much assure you that if you continue with what your doing that you will lose everything. Even using a 1 - 8 spread ($25 - 200) in this game puts your EV = $30.88 per 100 hands and a ROR of 86.5% and a NO of 89,000 hands. Just something to think about.

1. You entered my BR incorrectly. It's $12,000, not $2,000. What's my ROR w/ THAT size BR?

3. You also entered the pen incorrectly. It's 85%, not 81%.

2. I made $800 in about 10 mins at craps and roulette. Since I intend to bet no more than another $50 on either game in the next eight months, my expected return from the given investment is at least $750. (Actually, since I hit another boxcar bet for $90 on a separate occasion, and lost only $30 at the game thereafter, we can bump that figure up to $810.)

wvbjplayer

 

[blackjack avenger]

Now I am Really Worried, No not Worried at All

<<Oh man, I thought you gave up? What happened? Dish, dish!>>

Sorry to disappoint you!

<<Unfortunately, after reading your post, I think it would be appropriate to do some more raining on your parade.>>

Figures.

<<Another gigantic concern is the strength of the game you're playing. Shoes are brutally unprofitable unless you're religiously backcounting (even then, they're still brutally boring).>>

Unfortunately, there are no SD or DD games anywhere close to me. I'm stuck w/ 8D shoes. Mind you, the penetration is very good: probably about 85%.

<<I suspect you're in a mostly play-all situation.>>

Correct.

<<I don't have the time right now to run any sort of sim, but a while back I simmed a S17 8D game using a 12x spread, and the calculated win rate was, I swear to God, only about 0.8 units per 100 hands. And that's with robot-like play and no tipping. A 5x spread, play all could quite possibly result in no positive expectation over a billion hands.

Breaking down and using a fuzzy count is also worrisome, because, well, a fuzzy count is no count at all.>>

I don't use indices or anything. I have a rough idea of how much I'm prepared to bet in any given range. Normally, unless the TC is >3, I don't spread to more than twice my minimum bet. After that, I jack it up about 1 unit per increase of 2.

<<You should really be at the point where you can keep a real count most all of the time, even during an interminable shoe.>>

I can. It just normally isn't necessary b/c most of the counts start out either neutral or negative and then stay that way for the remainder of the shoe. Obviously, there's no point in keeping track of HOW negative a shoe is if the degree of negativity has no impact on your betting strategy. Thus, at any given juncture, to know that the count IS negative is enough. You don't have to keep a strict count just to know THAT, unless of course you're an idiot.

<<And if you're losing it, it's probably a sign that you should cut your session short.>>

Actually, as I said, I tend to do best when I just keep a fuzzy count and bet big when the count is substantially high. I also do well in relatively low counts. In fact, more often than not, my wins and losses occur in huge, pronounced streaks sometimes bearing no correlation to the count at all.

This has happened again and again and again. The cards start falling my way, I bet big, and clean up. When the cards quit falling my way, as inevitably they do, the count seems largely irrelevant to my win rate. The trick just seems to be to get out when you're way up. And with a big enough BR, such as I have now, you can rest virtually assured that, at some point, you'll be way up. In 20 trips, this rule has failed me only twice.

Now, don't get me wrong: I still count, despite all these observations, and normally count very carefully. I also rely on the count in calculating my bets, reservations aside. I'm just noting the trends I've witnessed.

<<And finally, the tipping can really get super expensive, and it's one of the big holes in my own game that I have to police rigorously (I'm a softy). Have you tried adding up how much you tip per hour? For instance, if only were to throw a toke when you get a natural, that's going to happen about 5 times per 100 hands. How much will that add up to? How much will it be if you toke on other occassions? Now how does that compare to your expected win rate? (which is approximately zero).>>

I tip about $25 per 5-hour session, if I do well. If I don't, I tip about $10 per 5-hour session. I'm comfortable w/ this and don't see it as a "hole in my game." I'm far from rich, but the dealers & cashiers no doubt need the money more than I do.

<<Unfortunately, results over 6 sessions (good or bad) don't really indicate skill level, there's too much variance involved.>>

In that case, we can't really conclude from my bottom line that I suck, can we? Surely, if nothing reasonably can be inferred from 6 sessions, little can be so inferred from 12, or even all 20. How many hours of play do I need to have put in to form a reliable assessment? 500? 1,000?

<<So, in conclusion, I'd say you're playing a game that is, at best, break even, but when the exacerbations of losing the count, tipping, and playing other games are factored in, you're playing with a disadvantage about as large as that placed by a perfect basic strategy player. But you might be betting more[/u[ than than if you were flat betting BS. Not a good outlook.

I recommend backcounting.

>>

Not feasible where I play. However, having won 2 grand in less than a month, I think I'll keep doing what I'm doing for a while and see how it goes.

Thanks for the advice, though.

wvbjplayer[/QUOTE]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>you state that one cannot tell a lot from your play in 20 sessions. Actually if given enough information a lot can be known.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Several have told you to tighen up in one form or anotuher. None have really said to continue what you are doing. Yet, it seems you are not going to follow the advice but are going to continue and "see what happens". You stated you are not rich, so is this not a substantial amount of money for you?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>My final question and an answer would be interesting. Why are you not going to take the advice which you asked for?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>My title above. I am not worried because disaster for you is almost certain.

 

[mjbballar23]

1. You entered my BR incorrectly. It's $12,000, not $2,000. What's my ROR w/ THAT size BR?

3. You also entered the pen incorrectly. It's 85%, not 81%.

2. I made $800 in about 10 mins at craps and roulette. Since I intend to bet no more than another $50 on either game in the next eight months, my expected return from the given investment is at least $750. (Actually, since I hit another boxcar bet for $90 on a separate occasion, and lost only $30 at the game thereafter, we can bump that figure up to $810.)

wvbjplayer

CASE 1) S17, DAS, 85% pen, $12k bankroll, 1-3 spread($25-75), EV per 100 hands = $5.81, ROR = $58.8%, and it will take you 778,725 hands to overcome 1 standard deviation and 3,114,900 hands to overcome 2 standard deviations.

CASE 2) S17, DAS, 85% pen, $12k bankroll, 1-8 spread($25-200), EV per 100 hands = $34.12, ROR = $34.8%, and it will take you 66,595 hands(665 hours) to overcome 1 standard deviation and 266,380 hands (2,638 hours) to overcome 2 standard deviations.

BETTER IDEA) Backcount and only play at a TC of +1 or higher, play 2 hands, and spread 25-200. EV per 100 hands = $58.73, ROR = 7.1%, it will take you 15,484 hands (154 hours) to overcome 1 standard deviation and 61,936 hands (619 hours) to overcome 2 standard deviations.

Backcounting is the only way to really beat 8d games, but as you can see if you are really dedicated to only playing positive counts this game can be beaten and variance can be overcome in a much more reasonable amount of time. Its all gonna depend on whether you are more interested in the money or in the COMPS i think.