Strategy for a few days of play

[Thor]

Hey guys, just a quick question here about what to do for a 3 day Vegas trip. A good friend of mine is heading there in the summer for 3 days, and wants to get in as much BJ as he can. He knows basic down pat but hasn't counted.

He's asking me to help him learn to count, but I'm wondering if it's even worth it for a 3 day trip. I know this guy, he'll practice and go do his thing in Vegas, then probably not step foot in a casino again until next summer. Is it even worth learning to count for such a small trip?

I can't see any kind of card counting being distinguishable from luck when you're playing around 15-20 hours of blackjack. Should he just find a game with good rules and go nuts with basic strategy at the table minimum and milk the free drinks?

I *could* get him counting proficiently. He is a very quick study and I don't doubt that he could work a system perfectly if he put his mind to it, I just don't see it being worth it for so little play.

Any comments would be appreciated!

 

[SD Padres]

I'd say if he plans on counting again in the future then by all means teach him what you know. He can do his best to keep up with the count and fall back on BS if he loses the count. When he gets home he can keep practicing for the next trip.
If this is just a one time thing then he could learn something like the A-5 count that will at least give him shot of breaking even and will give him better odds then just using BS.

 

[shadroch]

Sounds like a perfect case for OPP.

 

[bj bob]

Here's a thought

If your trip is going to be short, why don't you just have him copy your bets, not to the exact chip but in the general area. This should allow him to reach +EV to some extent while not having to cram a counting system down. Just be sure he understands bankroll and spread parameters.

 

[moo321]

Teach him to use a basic strategy card.

 

[EasyRhino]

He already knows BS.

Learning to count might give him a 55%, or at best 60% chance, of winning over the weekend. As opposed to just playing BS, where he has a 55-60% chance of losing.

Weigh this against the two biggest disadvantages I can think of:

1) It's a lot more work
2) Taking his current flat bet amount as a "small bet" and then ramping on top of that would increase his average bet, and total variance, a whole bunch, and make it unwise if he's still willing to lose only the same amount of money. You'd have to drop minimum bets a whole lot.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

I think Renzey's Front Count plus backcounting might be the way to go. It's a good test of counter's discipline too- if you can bear backcounting at all you can probably learn to count.

Or else, just play BS with a BS card in a decent game (less than 0.4% house edge) and a decent comp program for table games.

 

[ihate17]

If his current flat bet is less than the table min

He already knows BS.

2) Taking his current flat bet amount as a "small bet" and then ramping on top of that would increase his average bet, and total variance, a whole bunch, and make it unwise if he's still willing to lose only the same amount of money. You'd have to drop minimum bets a whole lot.

Rhino

A tough thing for anyone new at counting is spreading to proper amounts. If your friends flat bet currently is $25, spreading to $250 or $300 on a shoe game and losing a couple in a row, might convince him that counting is not for him. But let's say you are playing this game at a $10 table. Since his EV is negative anyway at the start of the shoe, why not drop his bet to the table minimum and let him spread from there. Catch some poor variance at a $100 max bet and it will hurt him less, and do not forget convserative play when learning to count is reccommended as the error rate and distraction rate is always high for new counters.

ihate17

 

[EasyRhino]

IH17, I think we agree. I'm not even so sure about a $100 bet though for a former civilian who used to flat bet $25. Maybe a $10-$100 spread, but maybe a $10-$75 spread would yield about the same variance. (no math there, just hunches)

Of course, such a spread would be marginal at best if play all in a shoe game. But then again, if this guy is only going to play one weekend and just wants a good gamble, it may not matter.

 

[moo321]

Oh, he knows basic strategy? Just teach him hi-lo. Shouldn't be too hard. If he can't keep up, just have him bet with you. Say he's your gay lover or something. Or a business client.

 

[runningaces]

In the 2months or so that i've been doing this the one HUGE thing I notice is this: When a floppy loses 2-3 hands in a row, he/she is going to raise their bets to try and get it back, if they lose again they will keep betting more. By counting, you will avoid this disaster. I sit at the table betting my min. bet at a -8 count and the floppy's firing away trying to get half his money back.

I think this is why i got banned at one casino last trip, the floppy to my right is down over 1200.00 and I'm up $500.00 and they ask me to leave when my max spread was 4x my minimum. Oh well, that place was a joke. (vegas strip casino)

 

[Thor]

Whoops, I guess I wasn't clear enough; he's going there for a few days, I'm not. He'll be on his own down there.

I just thought that I might set him up for disaster by teaching him a counting system. I know I've gone into a casino for a couple of hours, played my system perfectly, and had my ass handed to me big time.

Just weight the pros and cons of doing it. I'm glad this thread has generated some discussion. Thanks for the posts so far!

I wish his betting unit was about $25 usually, it would be easier then since he could go to a $10 bet until the count gets high. Unfortunately he's at a similar betting level as I am, which is $5 if he can find it, $10 if he has to.

 

[EasyRhino]

Okay, in that cash, have him stick with $5/$10 bets, and backcount.

Or you know, just forget about it.

 

[Thor]

Well his bankroll for the trip is going to be about $7-800. It's not like it's a couple hundred only... but still with that amount I don't think it's worth betting $25 a hand. That wouldn't take much of a bad streak to make you tap out.

 

[ihate17]

Not a good idea

Well his bankroll for the trip is going to be about $7-800. It's not like it's a couple hundred only... but still with that amount I don't think it's worth betting $25 a hand. That wouldn't take much of a bad streak to make you tap out.

I think you said he is going to be there for a few days. In a bad hour a bankroll his size can be depleted completely at a $25 table. Get a few splits combined with doubles and lose them, and you can see just how quickly $800 can disappear just flat betting.
The big problem for him is that there are very few decent playable games on the strip for $5, which is where he should be betting. Though pen is not good, Slots-A-Fun perhaps has the best of the $5 games. MGM offers good games at $10 but only when they are not busy.
Downtown and Locals casinos do offer some playable $5 and $10 games as good alternatives for a small bankroll.

As an example of a $25 table flux. About a month ago I sat down at a quarter table buying in for $500. With just one other player at the table, playing all just because the dealer gave great pen, on a shoe where the count hovered between 0-+2, never betting more than $75 on a hand, I lost the whole $500 and some of my next buyin by the shuffle point. It would become a very very long trip for him to lose his bankroll on his first or second shoe in town.

ihate17