Weekend? Try 9 losing sessions out of 10, and the one non losing session needed a valiant finish to eek out a small win. Basically getting beat up for 10 straight sessions. How can this happen? Imagine you are playing and the dealer's upcard is a ten or an ace 75% of the time. If anyone has a clue on how to beat THAT game, please respond. If it was all at the same place, I'd be positive I was cheated. But its been different spots; even in a different state yesterday. Do I just suck? I don't know. I don't have struggles like this on the software. What's amazing is I don't see ANYBODY winning. Usually some ploppy or basic strategy player will stumble upon some positive variance. Nada. In those 10 sessions, I have not seen one other person at the table color up for even $500. Yes, I've lost some but still have a decent amount of bankroll. My concern is the viability of beating the game at this point.
Talk me off the ledge
- Thread starter JJP
- Start date
Weekend? Try 9 losing sessions out of 10, and the one non losing session needed a valiant finish to eek out a small win. Basically getting beat up for 10 straight sessions. How can this happen? Imagine you are playing and the dealer's upcard is a ten or an ace 75% of the time. If anyone has a clue on how to beat THAT game, please respond. If it was all at the same place, I'd be positive I was cheated. But its been different spots; even in a different state yesterday. Do I just suck? I don't know. I don't have struggles like this on the software. What's amazing is I don't see ANYBODY winning. Usually some ploppy or basic strategy player will stumble upon some positive variance. Nada. In those 10 sessions, I have not seen one other person at the table color up for even $500. Yes, I've lost some but still have a decent amount of bankroll. My concern is the viability of beating the game at this point.
GuyIncognito
Active Member
I have no clue if you do indeed suck and are making mistakes but I know I double down on my homework after a losing session. What kind of rules are you playing and what kind of spread?
I totally understand that feeling of questioning whether or not counting even works but I usually just look at how I got beat and it lines up with there being a lot more tens in the deck. In a way it at least validates my count. I then remind myself that that my edge was only 2% or so and that leaves 48% chance of a loss.
9 out of 10 is a bad streak for sure but definitely not the longest.
I worked on the software in the last 3 weeks. I was playing at the Peppermill in Reno; 3-2BJ, H17, split any pair, double any two cards, double after split and no surrender. The rules honestly didn't matter other than the rare blackjack. Surrender would've been nice but wasn't an option. When the dealer is always starting with a 10 or ace, it pretty much kills the double down and split opportunities. The spread was pretty irrevelant too as I didn't get higher than 5 to 1 and my bigger bets didn't produce good outcomes.
I think I may strictly back count going forward. None of this entering at +1 TC crap. +2 or higher only.
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
First of all, you meant to say a 49% chance of loss and 51% of win, right? Secondly, that's not how it works in blackjack, you won't win 51% of the time, you will win around 42% of the time and push around 8.5% of the time. The reason you have an edge in this game is because of the 3:2 payout, more efficient double downs, and more accurate splits when there are a surplus of 9's, 10s, and Aces per deck. Keep in mind just because the count is high, doesnt mean there are MORE big cards than small cards per deck. Even with a true count of +5, you only have 5 bigger cards per deck still leaving 31 smaller cards per deck. Also keep in mind just because the count is high DOES NOT make you a favorite to win the next hand. With that being said if the count does get high enough around +5 and higher, you actually will start to win more rounds than you lose, but it's important to understand the distinction.
Also when the count is high, the dealer will also bust slightly more, but there is also a misconception with this. The dealer will still bust less than 50% of the time and with bust rates between 35% to 42% of the time using basic strategy with the 5 being your best chance to have the dealer bust. Even if the count is high the percentages will be around 38% to 47% of the time with the dealer 5 upcard being your best chance for the dealer to bust at 47%.
Last edited:
GuyIncognito
Active Member
Well I used 2% edge but it's the same idea. The edge is razor thin and leaves plenty of room for upsets.
No, that's not true. When the count is high, the dealer busts slightly less often than at neutral counts. What is true is that, when the count is high and the dealer shows 2-6, he breaks those hands more frequently. But, of course, in high counts, those upcards appear less frequently.
Don
ZenKinG
Well-Known Member
Thats what I meant. The reader should be able to interpret what I meant by the context of the rest of the post.
Such a "chart" would have to be three dimensional, to include all cases. Wong used to have a software application that approximated such edges and was extremely useful. No longer in existence. Norm has it for several plays but not for all. For example, go here: https://www.card-counting.com/cvcxonlineviewer3.htm
Don
Thanks. That link is great.
