The Gambler's Fallacy

[adventureboy]

Well, you're on the right page. This is pure voodoo. And, it is the very definition of "gambler's fallacy." There exists no force to cause "retracements." Cards have no memory, no emotions and no support levels. They're just cards.

Then let's just agree to leave it there. As I said earlier, I know that the vast majority of posters here will have no use for this line of reasoning. My degree is in mathematics eduacation, but it seems that explaining this to a point of satisfaction is going to be beyond my capablities. If anyone wants to discuss this any further, and how I believe this benefits my game, feel free to pm me. For forum postings, I will continue to add trip reports and chime in from time to time on counting issues, to which I am fully committed.

Regards to all, and I wish you well.

 

[StandardDeviant]

If you graph 10,000 hands of blackjack, you will see that the graph lookes remarkably like a foreign exchange graph.

This, of course, proves nothing. It is easy to create a graph, based on a random number generator, that looks just like an FX graph. There have been many, many serious academic studies that demonstrate that the "patterns" we think we see in securities data have no predictive power.

Man has been seeing patterns where there aren't any for many thousands of years B.C.E., and will no doubt continue many years into the future. Just ask any shaman who's read the cracks on a tortoise shell.

 

[rrwoods]

beyond my capablities

No offense, but proving something that is provably false is beyond most peoples capabilities, no matter their background.

 

[blackjack101]

Thank you, Sonny! Now I'm finally getting it.

(The worst part is that in college I got a 4.0 in Statistics, but that was 30 years ago.)

Daaammmm, I had to read this to understand that too, and I also Aced Statistics, but it was like a year ago....lol