The insurance puzzle

flyingwind

flyingwind

Well-Known Member
Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
 
T

tthree

Banned
flyingwind said:
Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
Click to expand...
That's Ten value cards -9 all other cards +4. IC of 1.0 or perfect. Take insurance at TC +16 if I remember right.
 
N

neversplit5s

Active Member
Here's an even simpler "perfect insurance count":

Tens are -2; everything else is +1.
IRC = -4 multiplied by the number of decks
Insure when the count is positive; don't when it's negative (at zero it's break-even)
 
M

Mersenne Twister

Member
I found this somewhere.

"true counted" unbalanced insurance count,
IRC(initial running count) = -4*(number of decks)
count tag for non-tens are +1
count tag for tens are -2

when 6 deck, total 312 cards.
C : number of cards dealt
N: number of non-ten cards dealt
T: number of ten cards dealt
number of cards in shoe = 312-C
number of decks in shoe = (312-C)/52
RC = -24+N-2T
N+T = C
probability of insurance win = P

after some calc,
TC=52*(-24+C-3T)/(312-C)
then (52+TC)/156=
by computation,
=(96-T)/(312-C)
this is equal to density of ten cards in shoe =P

Kelly optimal insurance bet = BR*(3P-1)/2=
by computation,
=BR*TC/104
 
M

Mersenne Twister

Member
NAP said:
Like the post immediately before yours? :p
Click to expand...
My interest in that insurance counting system is,
simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
(in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for
betting and playing, and that insurance count system for
determining insurance buying amount.

Someone can sim?
 
bejammin075

bejammin075

Active Member
Mersenne Twister said:
My interest in that insurance counting system is,
simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
(in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for
betting and playing, and that insurance count system for
determining insurance buying amount.

Someone can sim?
Click to expand...
You'd have to be counting with two different sets of card tags. You gonna keep track of all that? Like 8 and 9 will be neutral with your Hi-Lo, but you'll count them as +1 with your insurance count? Good luck!
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
flyingwind said:
Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
Click to expand...
http://www.zenzoneforum.com/threads/19968-Counting-and-Insurance?p=187391#post187391
 
flyingwind

flyingwind

Well-Known Member
That was what I was originally asking, although the exact answer may not matter so much (to me now). Thanks AM for correcting some of my statements. I realized some of the more correct ways to view this, too, after some meditation.
 
blackjack avenger

blackjack avenger

Well-Known Member
flyingwind said:
That was what I was originally asking, although the exact answer may not matter so much (to me now). Thanks AM for correcting some of my statements. I realized some of the more correct ways to view this, too, after some meditation.
Click to expand...
Did u say meditation?
Great another hippie
Joking:laugh:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top