The Long Run - And Other Fiction

[StandardDeviant]

In one of the recent posts, someone said something to the effect "The long run is fiction. We APs use it as an excuse to justify our gambling." I apologize to the poster for not quoting him exactly. I don't have time right now to find the original post, but I've been thinking about the profundity of the message since I read it.

We APs cite simulators and books that "prove" that in the long run we will all be ahead. And this is certainly true for the few of us that survive this game long enough to truly get to the long run. The long run, however, is somewhere in the future for most of us. For sure there are a few on this forum who have done the requisite time. Most, including me, can only imagine, and we therefore have to run on faith.

If we're not operating in the long run, we must be operating in the short run. And if we're in the sort run, the vagaries of probability overtake the expectation of certainty. In other words, all bets are off. Which raises the question: if a statement is true only under conditions that cannot practically be achieved, can it be considered truth?"

So I think that 99.44% of the APs on this site are gambling much like the "gamblers" we abhor. We are gambling that we know what we are doing. We are gambling we won't get caught. We are gambling that we won't exhaust our bankroll before we play the requisite hands needed to get to the long run. We gamble on it all.

We just sugar coat the fact by using nice labels like "advantage player."

 

[QFIT]

All of this can be said about living in general. But it's better than the alternative.

 

[bjcount]

Geez, you bursted my bubble....

and I thought my long run was between 100 -250 hrs of playing depending upon the game I'm playing... :cry: Now your telling me I won't make it that long...


now what am I going to do....

BJC

 

[Machinist]

This is what i know

In order to shorten the LONG RUN you need to play more hands per hour. That has always been my problem with Live BJ. How much money can you really run across the table.. with out heat and such???
How to play more hands, some have wives , girlfriends, or friends. Or you hire help.
One way or another you need the money to hit the table.
VP same way, i can play for a week to hit a royal on the average. But give me a team of say 8 players and i will knock it out in a day.
Video BJ same way, not much of a fluctuation in a day at 1000 hands an hour. Compare that to how many hands you personally can play in a day???
You probably are right StandardDeviant....Scary actually, if say, you only have a couple of years left to play the game....


Take care all
Machinist

 

[Meistro]

The quote was creeping panther's, incidentally, and I believe you are quoting it, if not verbatim, accurately. And it might even be verbatim.

 

[creeping panther]

Sd

In one of the recent posts, someone said something to the effect "The long run is fiction. We APs use it as an excuse to justify our gambling." I apologize to the poster for not quoting him exactly. I don't have time right now to find the original post, but I've been thinking about the profundity of the message since I read it.

We APs cite simulators and books that "prove" that in the long run we will all be ahead. And this is certainly true for the few of us that survive this game long enough to truly get to the long run. The long run, however, is somewhere in the future for most of us. For sure there are a few on this forum who have done the requisite time. Most, including me, can only imagine, and we therefore have to run on faith.

If we're not operating in the long run, we must be operating in the short run. And if we're in the sort run, the vagaries of probability overtake the expectation of certainty. In other words, all bets are off. Which raises the question: if a statement is true only under conditions that cannot practically be achieved, can it be considered truth?"

So I think that 99.44% of the APs on this site are gambling much like the "gamblers" we abhor. We are gambling that we know what we are doing. We are gambling we won't get caught. We are gambling that we won't exhaust our bankroll before we play the requisite hands needed to get to the long run. We gamble on it all.

We just sugar coat the fact by using nice labels like "advantage player."

SD,

The actual quote is Post#9 in South, "Back From Biloxi".

And yes, I did mean what I said, but others must read my post to have an accurate understanding of what I said and what terms I used and did not use.

Thanks,
CP

 

[StandardDeviant]

Geez, you bursted my bubble....

and I thought my long run was between 100 -250 hrs of playing depending upon the game I'm playing... :cry: Now your telling me I won't make it that long...


now what am I going to do....

BJC

And...there is no Easter Bunny!

 

[StandardDeviant]

Still thinking about this...

For the following conditions: S17 DAS LS with pen at 75% and spreading 1:15, and playing 500 hours per year, an accomplishment for a recreational player, it would take only 78 years for accumulated deviation to be < 10% of accumulated expectation.

According to the World Bank, average life expectancy in the US in 2007 was...surprise, surprise...78 years.

The good news? It takes only 20 years @ 500 hours per year for SD%EV to drop below 20%.

 

[Machinist]

Your killin me

Still thinking about this...

For the following conditions: S17 DAS LS with pen at 75% and spreading 1:15, and playing 500 hours per year, an accomplishment for a recreational player, it would take only 78 years for accumulated deviation to be < 10% of accumulated expectation.

According to the World Bank, average life expectancy in the US in 2007 was...surprise, surprise...78 years.

The good news? It takes only 20 years @ 500 hours per year for SD%EV to drop below 20%.

LMAO:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
SD knock it off!!!!!!!! Go have some fun, you sound like you have cabin fever!!!

Machinist

 

[StandardDeviant]

SD,

The actual quote is Post#9 in South, "Back From Biloxi".

And yes, I did mean what I said, but others must read my post to have an accurate understanding of what I said and what terms I used and did not use.

Thanks,
CP

For some reason, I can't say "Back from Biloxi" without thinking Down in Mississippi (Up to No Good).

 

[Machinist]

Oh no!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For some reason, I can't say "Back from Biloxi" without thinking Down in Mississippi (Up to No Good).

Run CP it's a trick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! She's a country rock lover too!!!!!!!
LMAO

Machinist with nothing going on tonight by my fireplace..

 

[StandardDeviant]

Run CP it's a trick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! She's a country rock lover too!!!!!!! LMAO

Sugarland rocks! They led me into this den of iniquity. I went to see them in concert at a casino, and happened to step onto the gaming floor after the show--and the rest is history--up to no good!

 

[daddybo]

In one of the recent posts, someone said something to the effect "The long run is fiction. We APs use it as an excuse to justify our gambling." I apologize to the poster for not quoting him exactly. I don't have time right now to find the original post, but I've been thinking about the profundity of the message since I read it.

We APs cite simulators and books that "prove" that in the long run we will all be ahead. And this is certainly true for the few of us that survive this game long enough to truly get to the long run. The long run, however, is somewhere in the future for most of us. For sure there are a few on this forum who have done the requisite time. Most, including me, can only imagine, and we therefore have to run on faith.

If we're not operating in the long run, we must be operating in the short run. And if we're in the sort run, the vagaries of probability overtake the expectation of certainty. In other words, all bets are off. Which raises the question: if a statement is true only under conditions that cannot practically be achieved, can it be considered truth?"

So I think that 99.44% of the APs on this site are gambling much like the "gamblers" we abhor. We are gambling that we know what we are doing. We are gambling we won't get caught. We are gambling that we won't exhaust our bankroll before we play the requisite hands needed to get to the long run. We gamble on it all.

We just sugar coat the fact by using nice labels like "advantage player."

I have said this before. Gonna say it again. The long run is the measure of time between YOUR first wager and the settlement of YOUR last wager. You have to play for YOUR long run.

-db

 

[somtum]

I say..."Any investment can be called a gamble... but not all gambles can be called an investment."

 

[StandardDeviant]

So I was thinking about this overnight. (I admit I need to get a life.) The graph shows standard deviation as a percentage of expectation over years played. The conditions are:

500 hours per year
75 hands per hour
6D 75% pen
S17 DAS LS
Spread 1:15

As daddybo puts it, long run is relative. Each player has to decide at which point standard deviation is "insignificant" with respect to expectation. For me, I'll call it 10%, which means I would need to play about 18 years with these particular conditions to get to the long run.

It's interesting to note that conditions improve significantly at first. It only takes a couple of years for the SD%EV to drop by 50% (from near 90% to 45%), but takes about 14 years for it to drop from 20% to 10%. It takes about 75 years for it to drop from 10% to 5%.

This points out that the long run is hard to achieve unless one: plays more hours or finds a better game, or both!

 

[MAZ]

This points out that the long run is hard to achieve unless one: plays more hours or finds a better game, or both!

Or finds a better way to play the game.

 

[creeping panther]

D-BO Preach it!!

I have said this before. Gonna say it again. The long run is the measure of time between YOUR first wager and the settlement of YOUR last wager. You have to play for YOUR long run.

-db

Amen Brother, do I hear a Hallelualalaala, praise BJ:laugh::laugh:

I would never disagree with my friend D-BO, perhaps the greatest player I have ever played with and far better than most here realize, and far better than he lets on,,,he may come on as a 'Good Ol' Boy" but he is far, far more than that.

I will however explain why I think the religion of the long run damages players, wipes them out and makes them weaker players and can lead to a path of personal destruction.

My sermon will be forth coming, Brothers and Sistahssss in BJ:grin:

CP

 

[daddybo]

Or finds a better way to play the game.

I wondered when somebody was going to point that out. :laugh::laugh:

Edge enchancement + deviation reduction = shorter long run :whip:

 

[daddybo]

Amen Brother, do I hear a Hallelualalaala, praise BJ:laugh::laugh:

I would never disagree with my friend D-BO, perhaps the greatest player I have ever played with and far better than most here realize, and far better than he lets on,,,he may come on as a 'Good Ol' Boy" but he is far, far more than that.


My sermon will be forth coming, Brothers and Sistahssss in BJ:grin:

CP

GEEZ... If that were the truth my head would swell to gargantuan porportions. I'm totally embarrassed... please delete this hyperbole! :laugh:
(but thanks for the compliment.. you are a true friend..)

 

[psyduck]

Some one said there are three kinds of lies:

lie, damn lie, statistics.