The Lure of Hold'Em

[fubster]

now this statement is pure poppycock!!!

For one thing, I know for a FACT that online poker is FULL of COLLUSION.

1) no, it isn't. fact generally need to be supported by evidence, and i'd like to see it.

2) heads-up games? would like to see how collusion would work there. fwiw, i think collusion is 100x as prevalent in live games than online...

 

[fubster]

Actually; if you go all-in with AA and get called by an underpair you have about an 82% chance of beating him. But that's beside the point. Poker is not about winning hands, [/B] it's about winning money.

Supposing you're playing blackjack, and the house decides to make a rule whereby you are ALWAYS dealt an 18. If you play, you're playing at a "coin toss" of about 49%. But suppose the house tells you that winning hands pay 2 to 1! This is exactly what is happening in your poker analogy.

Let's carry this even further. Supposing you're playing poker in a 9 handed game; you pick up pocket rockets; and decide to go all in. What is the optimal number of opponents that you would like to have calling you? The answer is ALL EIGHT of them! You'll only win the hand about 30% of thlie time, but you'll be getting 8 to 1 on your money, and that's not even including the money in the blinds.

this is absolutely the correct mindset. it is a bit simplified, but it is definitely how one should approach poker, in this aspect at least

 

[1357111317]

15% is too many hands, and they have something that does that. AHK (autohotkeys) is a script thats free to download, and totally allowed on all sites.

15% is not too many hands. Most 100fr good regs play anywhere from 17-13 % of their hands. Any less than 13% your starting to get pretty nitty.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Less than 15% is more well-suited to the nitty mass-tabling guys/rakeback pros. By the way, there's only one AHK program for the Mac that I know of, and it only works on Stars. Thumbs down.

Edit: Actually, looks like I'm running slightly lower than 15% (14.42%). Maybe I'm a nit!

 

[FLASH1296]

Mac Poker Apps

MacPoker Tracking Apps reported to be excellent:

FLOP ZOOM:

http://www.macupdate.com/info.php/id/29214/flopzoom

FlopZoom is an online poker tracker and analyzer for Full Tilt and PokerStars ring games and tournaments.
Its multi-table head-up display (HUD) shows real-time statistics (and hole cards mucked at showdown) for all your opponents at all Full Tilt and PokerStars tables as you play.

Use it to instantly pinpoint leaks in your game and exploit your opponents' weaknesses.

FlopZoom plays back any hand you've played, compares your statistics directly against other players' statistics, and compares your Harrington "M" value against the villains' "M" values throughout a tournament.

You can instantly find and review game-changing hands, see how you and your opponents played in specific positions, on specific streets, and against varying numbers of opponents.

Zoom in on the session you're playing right now, or zoom all the way out to your entire online poker career. It's all in there, all in real time!

POKER COPILOT:

http://www.macupdate.com/info.php/id/29548/poker-copilot

Poker Copilot is poker hand history analysis software for Mac OS X, including a Head-up Display. It works with Full Tilt Poker, PokerStars, UltimateBet, Absolute Poker, and Ongame Network. Cash games and tournaments are supported.
Features:

Easy to use, easy to understand: Even though Poker Copilot is a powerful application, it is easy to use. The most significant statistics are always viewable. Charts and tables are logically grouped and always within quick reach.
Currently supporting Full Tilt Poker and PokerStars: Hand history files are automatically located and processed. There's no need to tell Poker Copilot where your hand history files are located. Nor do you have to perform a manual import.
Analyze your hands and your opponents while you play: Poker Copilot continually monitors your hand history for updates. Updates are immediately processed. On-screen statistics automatically include these updates without any action from you. When you finish playing a hand within a few seconds you'll see the data on-screen update to include that hand.

Version 2.35:

I've fixed Poker Copilot so that the Head-up Display (HUD) works again with Absolute Poker and UltimateBet.
I've fixed Poker Copilot so that the Head-up Display (HUD) works again with Absolute Poker and UltimateBet.
Additionally, the HUD now works with tournaments in both Absolute Poker and UltimateBet.
I was also hoping to add support for "preferred seating" in these two poker rooms. But I'm reluctant to make so many changes so quickly. So I've shelved this idea for now.

 

[1357111317]

Less than 15% is more well-suited to the nitty mass-tabling guys/rakeback pros. By the way, there's only one AHK program for the Mac that I know of, and it only works on Stars. Thumbs down.

Edit: Actually, looks like I'm running slightly lower than 15% (14.42%). Maybe I'm a nit!

Unless you are playing higher stakes, at a normal 100bb buy in game you are going to have a tough time playing more than 17-18% of your hands extremely profitably. Even if you 1 tabled playing 20% + of your hands would be very tough to do profitably. I play about 14/11 and I almost always 16 table and you definatly can't call me a RB pro since my WR earns much more than my RB.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Fair enough. I do play FR as well, so my stats are of course pretty standard TAG for FR games. I certainly don't consider myself to be a nit!

Flash, thanks for the tip, but I'm actually looking for an Auto-Hotkey program, like TableNinjaFT for the PC. For tracking/HUD, I just use Poker Tracker 3, which works natively on the Mac.

 

[fubster]

15% is not too many hands. Most 100fr good regs play anywhere from 17-13 % of their hands. Any less than 13% your starting to get pretty nitty.

welcome to full ring.

honestly, most winning full ring regs play around 12% of hands.

ranges open up a lottt when they're on the btn/in the cutoff but very few hands are played otherwise.

if you look at positional stats for winning regs you'll see an absurdly high vpip from the btn and cutoff (and maybe co+1 depending on the seat etc) and an awkwardly low vpip from other positions. reason for this should be obvious but it reduces down to 12% of hands played. after all, you only get dealt hands on the button one out of nine times per orbit!

 

[fubster]

Unless you are playing higher stakes, at a normal 100bb buy in game you are going to have a tough time playing more than 17-18% of your hands extremely profitably. Even if you 1 tabled playing 20% + of your hands would be very tough to do profitably. I play about 14/11 and I almost always 16 table and you definatly can't call me a RB pro since my WR earns much more than my RB.

if you're playing highstakes, if you played anything close to 17% of hands at fullring you would get stung unless you were very very good or the lineup was excellent

 

[fubster]

why do all you guys play full ring anyway? the games are absolute ****, they're infested with regs (esp on FTP) and there's way way more profit to be made at 6max...

you can play a profitable 24/20 style at 6max and crush. wayyyyy more fun imo

 

[mjbballar23]

why do all you guys play full ring anyway? the games are absolute ****, they're infested with regs (esp on FTP) and there's way way more profit to be made at 6max...

you can play a profitable 24/20 style at 6max and crush. wayyyyy more fun imo

I've always stayed away from 6 max because of all the 3 betting. I never handled it very well.

On the full ring side, i would argue that Pokerstars FR games are worse because you get alot of 24 tabling regs playing an 11/9, which really dilutes the fish ratio.

 

[1357111317]

I've always stayed away from 6 max because of all the 3 betting. I never handled it very well.

On the full ring side, i would argue that Pokerstars FR games are worse because you get alot of 24 tabling regs playing an 11/9, which really dilutes the fish ratio.

I also am brutal at 3betting light vs regs or what to do when I get 3 bet. Also I'm brutal at the bvb situations vs regs, usually get crushed.


And pstars really sucks cause of the SSers. Lately ive been noticing a decent amount of fish at 100nl lately. usually isn't too tough to find a table with a 40/10 drooler on it.

 

[fubster]

playing in 3bet pots is tricky but once you get used to it, it's ****ing awesome.

i'd suggest getting a deuces cracked subscription and watching "unconventional wisdom"

also "handreaders"

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

I thought Stars was fixing the SS problem? FTP raised the min buyin to 35BB a few months ago and I think all those guys went over to Stars. FR at FTP is definitely reg-infested, but a lot of these regs are not great. I caught a guy today trying to start 8 deep tables, so I sat with him. He had the same line on every hand and it was easy to crush him.

As far as the 3-betting fad, you're going to need to adapt. People are 3-betting light OOP and then C-betting every flop. You don't know how many times I can float these guys and watch them check the turn and then fold to any bet. Of course, sometimes they get you, but against positionally-aware standard TAGs, I think this usually +EV. It's not even a 6-max thing, people are FIVE-betting at FR on a regular basis at FTP. It's hilarious.

 

[fubster]

3betting definitely isn't a fad. it's also probably a meh idea to float in 3bet pots without a lot of information

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

I guess "craze" would be a better word. And against certain opponents, I don't think "3-bet pot" has as much significance as it usually should. But you're right anyway, and I guess that's part of why I'm on a 12BI downswing!

 

[fubster]

I guess "craze" would be a better word. And against certain opponents, I don't think "3-bet pot" has as much significance as it usually should. But you're right anyway, and I guess that's part of why I'm on a 12BI downswing!

playing in 3bet pots is wayyy different than playing in single raised pots, it absolutely is significant vs pretty much everyone

did you watch "unconventional wisdom" yet?

 

[fubster]

if not you'd better do it right now

(Dead link: http://www.deucescracked.com/promotions/fff)

GET DAT ****

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Sure, I agree. And I suppose I'm using the term "downswing" somewhat optimistically as well...

 

[fubster]

i've said it before and i'll say it again... the swongs you're experiencing now are lolstandard. sucks that it comes at the beginning of your career because that causes self-doubt etc.

takes a lot longer for poker variance to converge since you arent playing most hands