The Martingale and Disregarding the "Long Term"

[jack.jackson]

A friend of mine started parlaying his bets at the BJ table a while back, got one hand up to about $480 from a very small bet before it ended. Had a blast.

Then again, if just playing recreationally, I'm not really looking for the roller coaster ride, I just want to kill time. So the variance from flat betting is more than enough.

One time, many moons ago. I kept a win/loss record of about 500 hands.
I experimented with different betting shemes trying to see if one would result in a positive expectation. After hours of mindnumming tests one however, did prevail. Bet 1 unit until you win,then bet 3,if you win again bet 5,and win again bet 7, then start all over. If at any time you lose,start all over until you win,going back to 3unit[etc.] Think i've been in the sun to long? Trust me, i know it wont work over the long run,if at all. Nevertheless i found it fun and exciting for the spirit. Any betting scheme you use just adds to the casino advantage[lawrence revere]r.i.p] Card counting is the only true rainbow of adventure. Anchored in gold

 

[Kasi]

A better method seems to be to multiply your bet by 1.5 after every loss.
$100,000 bankroll
A win is defined as winning $1
Initial bet is $1
After a loss, bet is multiplied by 1.5, ie, $1, $2.25, $3.375, ...
Table max is $1024
If the bettor reaches the table max, they start betting again at $1
If the bettor does not have the bankroll to bet 1.5 * last losing bet, the bettor bets the remainder of their bankroll.
2 million wins, 0 losses!

Just curious as to how many spins were involved to achieve 2 million $1 wins.
Also, why wouldn't your second losing bet be $1.50?
Regardless, what do u bet after u win but still haven't achieved a $1 win?

I enjoy goal-oriented betting systems and the percentage with which they are likely to achieve their goal. But 2 million out of 2 million seems high but maybe not with a $1 goal and $100,000 roll.

 

[noodleZ]

I somehow skipped over writing the second bet as 1.5, the third bet is 2.25

I'll get around to getting it to calculate the total number of spins in a while.

 

[Kasi]

I somehow skipped over writing the second bet as 1.5, the third bet is 2.25

I'll get around to getting it to calculate the total number of spins in a while.

No big deal noodle if u don't feel like doing it.

So u lose 1, 1.5 & 2.25. Then u win your 3.375 bet. Your still down $1.40 or so. What is your next bet? Back to $1 until you lose again or until u achieve at least a $1 win? Another 3.375?

 

[noodleZ]

Once you win, you go back to the original bet.

 

[Kasi]

Once you win, you go back to the original bet.

The original bet always being $1?

 

[noodleZ]

Yes, and after taking another look at the program, I've found some rounding problems which are going to affect the results. This system wouldn't work at a casino anyway, because they're not going to let you bet < $1.

I'm trying to fix the rounding problem right now.

 

[Kasi]

Yes, and after taking another look at the program, I've found some rounding problems which are going to affect the results. This system wouldn't work at a casino anyway, because they're not going to let you bet < $1.

I'm trying to fix the rounding problem right now.

Well, obviously a casino isn't going to let u bet $3.375, but, screw it, from a theoretical point of view go for it!

So what if sometimes your wins exceed exactly $1.

I assume your goal is at least a $1 win.

It doesn't seem too likely after going thru the first $1024 max that a $1 bet would overcome such a loss. Not for a long time anyway.