The Power of Backcounting and Optimal Departure

[bjo32]

OH and someone mentioned one of the big clues. It is the mentality of the pit folks. Their mentality changed 180 degrees to "yeah, go ahead and spread to your hearts content".

Again, the warning is when something seems wrong, I mean really seems wrong, trust your gut. Trust your experience.

LC Larry is spot on. And KewlJ is wrong, as usual. This post by KewlJ shows he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

KewlJ is indicating multiple pit people are in on it. That’s ridiculous. That’s basically believing in a conspiracy. Any casinos would have too much to lose to let multiple people in their company know they were doing this. What if one of the pit folks got upset at their casino and leaves? Think of what they could do to that casino by exposing all their cheating.

If anybody thinks a casino is doing this, you’d have to come up with some scenario where someone in the organization would approve it and then they have to pull it off. People high up have to much to lose to do this. Lower level people, like pit folks, don’t make enough to care. The programmers in casinos would have to be told to do this, and then they would be in “the know” and could expose the casino if they wanted to.

When you think through it logically, it’s easy to see why this isn’t happening. But to all the conspiracy nuts, they will keep believing ASM are sometimes rigged. Why? Because that is what conspiracy nuts do.

 

[KewlJ]

LC Larry is spot on. And KewlJ is wrong, as usual. This post by KewlJ shows he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

Just to be clear here, bjo32 uses multiple handles on different forums, going by Dbs6582 on Norm's forum, Bob21 at Vegas casino talk, I think bob 32 at BJ21 and I don't even know some of the others. He is an avid casino industry supporter on all forums, often posting how the casino industry is an upstanding industry while AP's are immoral. You know that old tired argument "provides nothing to society". He is one of those guys. I believe he is only 1 of 2 members ever banned at Blackjack Apprentice and that too was because of his over-jealous support of the casino industry at every turn.

So I don't have a problem with him having an opinion differing from mine. I just want it known that this is not an objective opinion. As a very vocal supporter of the casino industry, he has a dog in this fight and often espouses anti-AP and pro-casino industry views. As a matter of fact, despite that he will tell you he is an aspiring card counter, based on his rather extreme views, he very likely is employed by the casino industry or has close ties to someone who is.
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[bjo32]

Just to be clear here, bjo32 uses multiple handles on different forums, going by Dbs6582 on Norm's forum, Bob21 at Vegas casino talk, I think bob 32 at BJ21 and I don't even know some of the others. He is an avid casino industry supporter on all forums, often posting how the casino industry is an upstanding industry while AP's are immoral. You know that old tired argument "provides nothing to society". He is one of those guys. I believe he is only 1 of 2 members ever banned at Blackjack Apprentice and that too was because of his over-jealous support of the casino industry at every turn.

So I don't have a problem with him having an opinion differing from mine. I just want it known that this is not an objective opinion. As a very vocal supporter of the casino industry, he has a dog in this fight and often espouses anti-AP and pro-casino industry views. As a matter of fact, despite that he will tell you he is an aspiring card counter, based on his rather extreme views, he very likely is employed by the casino industry or has close ties to someone who is.
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KewlJ, so once again you never addressed my point...you just attacked who you think I am, as if you think that proves something.

What does it matter who I am, or if I live on Mars? What should matter is what I’ve said? Not WHO you think I am?

Referring to me, you said: “I just want it to be known that this is not an objective opinion”, but you gave no reasons why you believe this. Let’s say for arguments sake I work for the casinos. Does that mean I can’t have an “objective opinion”? What constitutes an “objective opinion” in your opinion?...someone who is an AP?

Yes, I was backed off from Blackjack Apprenticeship for defending casinos from malicious false attacks and believing in tipping. These are major no nos on that site. I’m not embarrassed that I was kicked off that site for having independent views that didn’t align with AP orthodoxy. I violated no rule on that site. My only crime was thinking different than your average Joe Blow AP. That will get you 86’d on Blackjack Apprenticeship. I expect it’s because they think it’ll hurt their business, but I might be wrong. You’ll have to ask them.

As far as the topic at hand, you did nothing to defend your position. All you did was attack me, the poster, which I know is a common technique within the AP community.

I don’t need to make any further points on this topic. I made them in my first post, which you didn’t address.

So KewlJ, now that you got it off your chest on who you think I am, can you defend your position? Or should we just call you a “conspiracy nut”?

One more comment: I have NEVER posted that an AP is immoral. I’m an AP after all. You should quick making up stories, but from talking to people and seeing your posts, I know this is just how you operate, so I’ve come to expect this from you.

 

[KewlJ]

So KewlJ, now that you got it off your chest on who you think I am, can you defend your position?

Why yes I can. Upon realizing something was not right, I did extensive research which involved tracking counts hundreds of times through shuffles, some I was playing, some watching. Hundreds of times through! Resulting in abnormal high and low counts.

Next I searched for and acquired the model ASM in question through an overseas buyer. Paid 5 figures and several thousand more to have it shipped to a friend in Canada who re-routed it to me.

I then spent a week playing with the machine, in combination with an AP friend and with some assistance discovered just how easy it is to reprogram the machine to do exactly what I suspected that it could do. So I have seen it first hand....THAT is how I defend my position.

At the end of my time, with the product, I turned it over, at cost to another pretty well known AP. I wish he had commented on it, but he hasn't. His interest was a bit different as you might guess.

My experience of bringing this issue to light and the negative feedback that ensued made it quite clear that many other people in the community also are aware of this. I wasn't bringing anything to light that was new as I thought. People in our community know about it. I have reason to believe Nevada Gaming actually is aware of this situation. No one filed an actual complaint, so there has been no action required to be taken by them.

I initially thought my bringing this to light might lead in that direction as there was some discussion about Michael Shackleford being the face of such a complaint, but by the time he showed an interest the machines in question at the location specified had been pulled and haven't shown up at that location again. But I have no doubt at some point this situation will become very public and Gaming will have to act.

 

[LC Larry]

I'm not buying this story. And if you bought a shuffler, they are not the same as the ones provided by ShuffleMaster. No different then aftermarket car parts made by a different company.

 

[bjo32]

I’m not buying the story either. Each time KewlJ tells it, it changes and gets bigger. If it was true, I wouldn’t know which version to believe anyway.

Kewl, you still haven’t answered my central point. How would this conspiracy work? You claim multiple pit folks knew about it and allowed you to spread till your heart’s content. Since these rigged ASMs are at the table 24/7, I assume that means every pit boss on every shift knew they were rigged to cheat. Is that what you’re claiming?

Since the casino is taking a huge risk if they should get caught cheating, why would they let their whole staff know about it? Do you think they announced this in a staff meeting or through a group email?

How high up do you think this conspiracy went? You’ve got the programmers, all the pit folks, and I’m sure quite a few dealers and waitresses (since pit folks date dealers and waitresses) knowing about it. It sounds like you think everybody at the casino knows about this. That’s a lot of people you got to trust to not spill the beans. What if one of them gets upset at the casino? They could really cause some damage by ratting on the casino.

As we all know, there are not that many counters, and the ploppies are going to lose no matter if they play on a rigged or honest ASM. Why wouldn’t a casino just back off counters like most do, rather than risk their license, a huge fine and their reputation by rigging their ASMs. And you think they did all this to just stop a couple counters? This makes no sense.

If you saw what you think you saw (clumping), then it was probably due to a malfunction. With this said, I don’t think you saw anything more random variation.

You've said in a previous posts, you knew APs that knew these ASMs were rigged and were exploiting them. Isn’t clumping supposed to make them impossible to exploit? Clumping means you won’t win with the high clumps (all you’ll do is push), and you’ll get taken to the cleaners with the low clumps. Can you explain how your AP buddies were exploiting thes rigged ASMs? Or is that top secret info?

There are just a lot of things in your story that aren’t adding up. Can you clarify how this conspiracy is supposed to work?

 

[LC Larry]

The whole problem, is that these card counters don't understand what truly random is. They see some weird anomaly for a short period of time, then make bogus assumptions and claims.

 

[KewlJ]

The whole problem, is that these card counters don't understand what truly random is. They see some weird anomaly for a short period of time, then make bogus assumptions and claims.

Really? I don't understand random?

With the game in question, which I play regularly, a DD game dealt to anywhere from 60-65% penetration, a player should see TC's of +4 or -4 roughly 20% of the time...a little less than 20% according to Don's numbers from BJA3. I began seeing these counts well over 50% of the time. And in tracking some 200 shoes, or times through the shuffle, a TC of +4 or -4, occurred in over 90% of the shoes. I forget if the actual number but I believe it was 93%.

These numbers are NOT normal. They are NOT random.

If the clump of 10 value cards came out early you would have a negative count for most of the remaining rounds. If the clump came out late or ended up after the cut card you would have a +4 or better count for most of the round.

If you don't understand the advantage to this. If the clump comes out early, you are playing how ever many rounds left at a significant disadvantage. A count that most traditional counters, including myself shouldn't even be playing.

If the clump comes out after the shuffle, then it is known as a false advantage. You believe you are playing with an advantage because the count is high, but that actual advantage (the high cards) never come out.

The third scenario is that the clump comes out towards the end of play. You see a positive count, bet more and the clump or advantage does come out, which would be advantage player, but in most cases the clump comes out so clumped that the result is mostly 20 vs 20 pushes for a round or two. So the player advantage isn't really what it appears.

Again, all of these things happen naturally. BUT NO WHERE CLOSE TO THESE NUMBERS! These numbers are not normal. They simply are not a random distribution of cards.

Now I can appreciate that players on these forums often post things based on selective memory. Not only things in regards to cheating, but just general variance and losing periods. I took extrodinary steps to insure this was not what I what I was experiencing.

 

[BoSox]

The whole problem, is that these card counters don't understand what truly random is. They see some weird anomaly for a short period of time, then make bogus assumptions and claims.

Why yes I can. Upon realizing something was not right, I did extensive research which involved tracking counts hundreds of times through shuffles, some I was playing, some watching. Hundreds of times through! Resulting in abnormal high and low counts.

LC Larry, evidently you have a reading problem. You only see what you want to see. KJ, is not alone in forming his own theories on ASM's it has been discussed and debated on Norm's site by others including myself. I have seen many clumping situations with ASM taking place that borders on bizarre. Way out of the ordinary of what you see with hand shuffles, and it happens frequently. I recommend players play those machines with caution and form their own opinions.

 

[bjo32]

Kj, you still haven't said how many people you think were involved in this scheme. From a couple of your posts, I’m guessing 10 to 15. The higher ups who gave the orders to do it. The programmers to actually pull it off, and then all the pit bosses had to be in “the know” so they wouldn’t back off any of the counters at these tables.

Do you really think 10 to 15 people could keep a secret like this? They would all know what they were doing was illegal. Don’t you think one or two might not go along with this? What if the programmers refused to do it? Most people working in companies don’t like to do illegal things.

How do you think the higher ups approached these people to pull this off? Why has this conspiracy gone on for so long with nobody on the inside spilling the beans? Usually it’s hard to keep a secret when more than 2 people are involved.

You still haven’t let us know how you think all this was pulled off?

 

[BoSox]

You still haven’t let us know how you think all this was pulled off?

KJ did, in fact, give a theory on this in an earlier thread. He said that the possibility exists that some of the machines could be altered after leaving the factory and before reaching the casinos. Covering the factory from fraud.

 

[KewlJ]

I don't know how it is happening or how many people are involved. How would I know any of that? I just know it has happened.

At the first casino that I saw this, on Boulder Highway, it may have involved as few as 2 people, the one pit person that always punched the code in, right in front of me and I would guess this didn't happen without the Casino manager being involved. Maybe as few as two people maybe more. Nor do I know how many were involved at the second location. I would think the fewer the better. I seen no reason why dealers would be involved....but I'll bet they recognized something abnormal.

You are asking me questions that I could not know. Hey I have seen video of John Kennedy's head being blow apart. How the f**k do I know how many people were involved? 1? 2? 5? 10?

I don't know how many people were involved. Does that mean John Kennedy's head wasn't blown apart?

I did make some speculations along the way. Some theories. And one that this capability occurred at the factory appears to have been wrong. And I amended that as I learned more and new information became available.

I don't know what you clowns want from me. I am not the gaming commission. It is not my job to figure out how. Nor am I bringing a lawsuit. Selfishly I was unwilling to get involved for obvious reasons. I simply stated what I had found as a warning for other players to look for themselves (at the time) and be vigilant going forward. And frankly, if I had known my warning would have harmed other AP's, as it apparently did at the time, I would have never said anything.

 

[bjo32]

KJ did, in fact, give a theory on this in an earlier thread. He said that the possibility exists that some of the machines could be altered after leaving the factory and before reaching the casinos. Covering the factory from fraud.

This doesn’t cover the casino from fraud and illegal activity. Whoever did this intended to cheat, which is committing an illegal act.

So are saying kj believes the casino higher ups ordered this to be done? Who did they get to do it? They would have had to find someone who didn’t have any ethics, had good programming skills and could keep a secret. These people are hard to find.

Kj also said he thought all the “pit folks” were in on it since they let people spread on these tables without backing off anybody.

That’s a lot of people to be in on an illegal activity. How did the higher ups who orchestrated this know they could trust everybody in their company to be unethical and support cheating? How did they know no one would turn them in?

I don’t know anybody in position of authority that would trust this many people with this type of secret. If anybody squeals, the higher ups could go to jail. You really think they took this type of risk? For what? To stop a couple low level counters?

There is still a lot of unanswered questions here. I really believe you have to be some kind of “conspiracy nut” to believe casinos are altering their ASMs to cheat counters.

 

[bjo32]

Kj, there is a big difference in JFK being shot and you believing “clumping” is due to an altered ASM. We know JFK was shot, while we don’t know what caused the “clumping” you’re seeing. It could be caused by random variation or by an altered ASM.

In the past, I listened to a sports analytics program on satellite radio put on by some professors at the Wharton School of Business. I don’t know if you’ve heard of Wharton, but it’s one of the best business schools in the country.

One thing they discussed often is how most people don’t understand randomness. Within randomness, there are streaks (or clumps) that some think are patterns, and not the result of randomness.

To illustrate this point one of the professors said he gives the following test to his incoming students (who have some of the highest IQs in the nation) to show them they don’t understand randomness. I’m paraphrasing here. He tells them to first write down heads or tails ten times in what they think will simulate randomness and then to flip a coin ten times and record the results. They are told to do this when he leaves the room and when he comes back he will predict which is which.

He said he gets it right almost 100% of the time since he always picks the random coin flip one as the one with most heads or tails in a row. This always shocks his students since the truelly random one is the one with a pattern, or with “clumps”.

He said when someone thinks of random, they usually don’t think a pattern - or streak - will develop is such a short amount of coin flips, but it does. He said the simulated coin flips done by students to predict randomness usually don’t have more than 2 or 3 heads or tails in a row.

What does this have to do with card “clumping”? What you're seeing is randomness, but since you don’t have a good understanding of what randomness is, you think you’re seeing a pattern and immediately blame the casino for cheating.

It also doesn’t help that the ASMs are in a black box. This always gets the “conspiracy nuts” going. They probably should have housed these machines in a brown box. Lol

 

[BoSox]

There is still a lot of unanswered questions here.

That's right. Number one is why is there large clumping taking place on many of these machines? Clumping that are making positive and negative true counts way out of proportion to what's normally seen percentages, that are happening way too often.

 

[LC Larry]

That's right. Number one is why is there large clumping taking place on many of these machines? Clumping that are making positive and negative true counts way out of proportion to what's normally seen percentages, that are happening way too often.

It ISN'T happening.

 

[bjo32]

That's right. Number one is why is there large clumping taking place on many of these machines? Clumping that are making positive and negative true counts way out of proportion to what's normally seen percentages, that are happening way too often.

Here’s a funny story. Since I’ve been on these forums and know how most people think there’s something fishy going on with ASMs, I’ve used this as cover. It makes me look more like a ploppy when I complain about the ASMs not giving a good shuffle. I have two local casinos that recently put in some ASMs so I always complain about them.

Well the other day, I was at one of my local casinos that still does hand shuffles and I sure was seeing a bunch of “clumps” the whole session. I went into my normal anti-ASM tiariade on how they clump cards and won’t let us win (Btw, i do my complaining in a nice way) and the dealer pointed out to me that they hand shuffle. I stopped and said you're right. She made me feel a little stupid, which doesn’t bother me too much since I like the casino thinking I’m dumb. But I did really think they they were using an ASM there since I wasn’t paying much attention as I was watching sports on their tv.

Point being, I’d seen a lot of clumps that day, more than I thought should be normal, even in this hand shuffled game. If your suspicious of something you’ll start seeing what you believe you should see. It’s how we’re wired.

Ever since kj has brought up “clumping”, everywhere I go all I see is “clumps”. I’m seeing them in hand shuffled and ASMs games. I’ve now become wired to see “clumps”. You can call me the “clump” expert. Lol

 

[nycpro]

I have discovered similar things like this in two casinos. It was always weekends and main floor games. The handshuffled games at 100 min was where I always grinded out the hours after losing massive on the main floor in both senarios. Would see counts of plus 50 running count way more then normal of -50. Once of these casinos was harrahs Cherokee in North Carolina, I recently played there for a week. Lost about 80k on the main floor at 2x800 top bets which is a huge swing and then won back 81k in high limit room handshuffled. I played 100 hours in a week there. I played unrated the whole time and the last 2 days they id checked me in high limit when I showed up. I figured I was done anyway and I had 80k of there chips I needed to cash out anyway. They took my name, called on the phone and said, yeah that's him and let me play for 2 more days. I have already been backed off this store once is 2014 or somewhere around there. on the 7th day of play security comes and tells me im done. Im like ok cool I need to cash these chips. Now I did not ever use a tool there and only played unrated. I give the casino my chips and the lady cashier goes
"your 86 from all ceasars properties" I was like I certainly am not and no one has told me that ever, which is correct. She says im going to need to confiscated those chips and give u a receipt till you get this figured all out. I grab her hand and forcifly pull her forward and say look bitch, you going to need to kill me before you rob me for 80k. I grab the chips back and call the police. The police say they cant help me only tribal police. Tribal police show up and say your 86 and if u don't leave this second your going to be arrested. I am still out the 80k. I never thought casino cheating is real but if there willing to make up stories just to steal chips of an unrated card counter why wouldn't they cheat. The look in the eyes of them was of pure evil and murder like they wanted to kill someone. I will never put it past certain casinos to cheat. I also don't know many counters who ever had done well there. There is something fucked up about there mainfloor and 50 dollar pit games on the weekeends

 

[nycpro]

Wht do you play hand dealt games ?
Cheating by dealers for both themselves and on behalf of casinos is out of control including Vegas
nycpro