Theoretically, should playing as a counter be automatic?

p8ntballsk8r

Well-Known Member
Ok so obviously BS should be automatic, but is it also true that a skilled counter should have no difficult decisions to make? The counter should always have only 1 right play and should only do that play?

I'm talking, betting amount, taking insurace, playing a hand/ anything else that can happen at the table. Not refering to recognizing heat, or anything else at the table that one notices.

As a side question, is there a better way, other than ignoring a person, to deal with a ploppy telling me not to hit a 12 v 2?
 

bj bob

Well-Known Member
Re: 12 vs. 2

Yeah, I just tell them "Hey, There are 9 sets than that I can catch without busting and only 4 that will. That's more than 2:1 in my favor. I like those odds." Even the most stupid ploppy should understand that. If that doesn't work then just tell him you don't speak English.
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
I wouldn't give any advice or correct anyone. You don't want to come off looking too bright, and you certainly don't want to make a slip like "I'm standing on this 12 vs 2 because the deck is rich in tens."

My standard answer is "you play your hand, I'll play mine."
 
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bj bob said:
Yeah, I just tell them "Hey, There are 9 sets than that I can catch without busting and only 4 that will. That's more than 2:1 in my favor. I like those odds." Even the most stupid ploppy should understand that. If that doesn't work then just tell him you don't speak English.
That's what I tell them- "There are only 4 cards that will hurt me, and 5 that will help me. Besides, the dealer never busts with a 2. You have to try to make a hand."
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
Automatic Monkey said:
That's what I tell them- "There are only 4 cards that will hurt me, and 5 that will help me. Besides, the dealer never busts with a 2. You have to try to make a hand."
The problem with this is the next shoe comes along, the count is + and you stand on the same hand. What are you going to say then?

That's why I prefer no explanation. Helps keep my foot out of my mouth :grin:
 

ihate17

Well-Known Member
If you got to say something

21forme said:
The problem with this is the next shoe comes along, the count is + and you stand on the same hand. What are you going to say then?

That's why I prefer no explanation. Helps keep my foot out of my mouth :grin:
Just say, I played it your way this time, or I went with my gut. Or if you want to piss him off and perhaps get into a fight, just ask for his chips because you will play his way but only with his money. Then show him you also hit your 12 vs a dealer 3.
When you are playing all and the count is really tanked, just hit that 12 vs a 5 or 6 and get yourself labeled by the ploppies as a horrid player. If you play in the same casino often enough this will have a long term benifit of eventually reducing the number of other players at your table.
Just this week I landed up ending a shoe that was way minus near the end but with the shuffle coming up and a dealer who cut a deck, I stayed. Place was really crowded, as it was a weekend evening (I just arrived fresh, really waiting for the place to empty out). I get a 12 vs dealer 6, hit an ace and hit again and get another ace and stand. Dealer turns a 4 and hits a 9 for 19 and cleans the table. Three players get up and leave, one of them telling a couple of friends loud enough for me to hear, that that guy (me) has to be the dumbest player in the place and cost everyone the hand. No matter, or not noticed by these guys, but if I stayed or even just took one hit, the dealer makes 21. Result, I start the next shoe and nearly complete that shoe (a profitable one) heads up with the dealer in a very crowded casino.

ihate17
 

matts0809

Active Member
21forme said:
I wouldn't give any advice or correct anyone. You don't want to come off looking too bright, and you certainly don't want to make a slip like "I'm standing on this 12 vs 2 because the deck is rich in tens."

My standard answer is "you play your hand, I'll play mine."
didn't that crazy guy with the shirt he never washed say that at one of the WSOP's???
 

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
p8ntballsk8r said:
Ok so obviously BS should be automatic, but is it also true that a skilled counter should have no difficult decisions to make? The counter should always have only 1 right play and should only do that play?

I'm talking, betting amount, taking insurace, playing a hand/ anything else that can happen at the table. Not refering to recognizing heat, or anything else at the table that one notices.

As a side question, is there a better way, other than ignoring a person, to deal with a ploppy telling me not to hit a 12 v 2?
Yes it is true that once you have completely grasped the concept of counting there are no difficult decisions to make. The problem lies with the psychological aspect of it, which if you want to excel at being an AP you must separate from mathematical fact. The whole basis of counting is based on a math premise, which leaves no room for interpretation. There are different methods people use but once that is all set up, which should be done way before you step foot in a casino, thats it, all decisions are made for you before you actually have to make them. If you have done everything correctly leading up to your actual playing, then there should be no apprehension about what play to make or how much to bet. Where one runs into problems is when they have fooled themselves into thinking they're ready but true lack of confidence makes them question their decision making. I see this and hear this with a lot of even experienced APs. It does not take a great deal of nerve or balls, as some have said to make a decision on something there is only one right answer to and you know it. If you had to bet a million dollars that 2+2 =4 would you be scared to do it? Of course not, it will always be that regardless of outside distractions. Of course with counting there is variance that will not always make the correct answer seem that way at the time, but again if you believe in the math, and that you have studied it well, you still know you were right and eventually you will win. That is why I stress perfection, it lessens the stress of the game. You know you are right even if at the moment the game is beating the hell out of you. With time and practice everything becomes automatic. Counting becomes as easy as reading a stop sign, you see and it registers without having to truly read it. For hi lo, TC calculations and bet sizing come as more of memory recall than actually tring to figure them out. And if you are using indices they will come as easy as basic strategy. Its like a boxer that goes in and delivers a 1st round knockout in a fight. Every one says wow what any easy way to make a buck, but what they don't see is the months of training it took to be able to perform in such a way. Same thing in blackjack, train hard to make your fights easy, make your skills training as difficult as possible, so that the casino actually runs in slow motion for you. Of course you need to log some casino time to get comfortable with the atmosphere, but if you train well the casino will be nothing but a bigger living room to you. So if you call yourself an AP and find yourself stressing while you're playing, its either you are playing with money you can't afford to lose, even betting properly can't fix that, or you aren't truly confident in what you are doing. Whether it be your skills or the fact you're not truly sold on if the whole card counting thing is true. If its either one, stop playing and evaluate yourself truthfully.
 

nc-tom

Well-Known Member
Bojack1 said:
Yes it is true that once you have completely grasped the concept of counting there are no difficult decisions to make. The problem lies with the psychological aspect of it, which if you want to excel at being an AP you must separate from mathematical fact. The whole basis of counting is based on a math premise, which leaves no room for interpretation. There are different methods people use but once that is all set up, which should be done way before you step foot in a casino, thats it, all decisions are made for you before you actually have to make them. If you have done everything correctly leading up to your actual playing, then there should be no apprehension about what play to make or how much to bet. Where one runs into problems is when they have fooled themselves into thinking they're ready but true lack of confidence makes them question their decision making. I see this and hear this with a lot of even experienced APs. It does not take a great deal of nerve or balls, as some have said to make a decision on something there is only one right answer to and you know it. If you had to bet a million dollars that 2+2 =4 would you be scared to do it? Of course not, it will always be that regardless of outside distractions. Of course with counting there is variance that will not always make the correct answer seem that way at the time, but again if you believe in the math, and that you have studied it well, you still know you were right and eventually you will win. That is why I stress perfection, it lessens the stress of the game. You know you are right even if at the moment the game is beating the hell out of you. With time and practice everything becomes automatic. Counting becomes as easy as reading a stop sign, you see and it registers without having to truly read it. For hi lo, TC calculations and bet sizing come as more of memory recall than actually tring to figure them out. And if you are using indices they will come as easy as basic strategy. Its like a boxer that goes in and delivers a 1st round knockout in a fight. Every one says wow what any easy way to make a buck, but what they don't see is the months of training it took to be able to perform in such a way. Same thing in blackjack, train hard to make your fights easy, make your skills training as difficult as possible, so that the casino actually runs in slow motion for you. Of course you need to log some casino time to get comfortable with the atmosphere, but if you train well the casino will be nothing but a bigger living room to you. So if you call yourself an AP and find yourself stressing while you're playing, its either you are playing with money you can't afford to lose, even betting properly can't fix that, or you aren't truly confident in what you are doing. Whether it be your skills or the fact you're not truly sold on if the whole card counting thing is true. If its either one, stop playing and evaluate yourself truthfully.
That my friends is about as good of advice that you could hope to recieve on an internet message board. As usual your rational reasoning is of great help, thanks :)
 

ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
Thanks Bojack for the chin check...it is a reminder that nobody is infallable.

good luck
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
But even if you have everything down so pat you can do it in your sleep,you don't want to give anyone that impression.Agonizing over splitting 8s against a face,or stare intensely at the dealers hole card while you" decide" if you should take insurance,or even money on your BJ will keep you in the game longer than showing everyone you are a BJ machine..
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
I still pull out my basic strategy card from time to time, especially on the soft hands and the splits.
 

Bojack1

Well-Known Member
shadroch said:
But even if you have everything down so pat you can do it in your sleep,you don't want to give anyone that impression.Agonizing over splitting 8s against a face,or stare intensely at the dealers hole card while you" decide" if you should take insurance,or even money on your BJ will keep you in the game longer than showing everyone you are a BJ machine..
That is a good point, as long as your agonizing over playing decisions is just for camo reasons and not a real situation. But being prepared and being able to play on automatic pilot frees up up your mind to create what ever illusion you want at the table, without it distracting from your game. And pulling out the basic strategy card is a good way to shut up ploppies for the most part, and deviating from it on an indice play is a good way to look like one.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
The first time I had a large bet (for me) out, and began splitting and doubling like a maniac, to the point where the total bet got pretty out of hand, I was very proud of myself that I was still keeping the count just fine, even as I was making additional bets and the nerves were starting to kick in.
 

p8ntballsk8r

Well-Known Member
yea, as you mention, I make it look like I'm playing on a hunch, or ask the dealer what I'm 'supposed to do'. Then if he gives me the wrong info, I'll evaluate the size of my bet, and it it is small, i might listen to him. Otherwise i'll say, well I really think that next card is a 5 so i'll hit my 16.

also I like to take my time and look purplexed if I get 44 v ace or any other hand that would be idiotic to split, then decide 'at whim' that i'll just hit.


on a curious side note, after a bad beat, i've been thinking, isn't variance a KILLER? Because Negative variance that happens at a very high count will cost you 10x the amount that positive variance in a negative count will.
Sorry if this isn't clear, but I'm saying if I'm spreading 1-10 and if variance occurs on my 10u bet against me, this will hurt 10x more than my 1u bet where variance helps me.

Please let me know what is wrong with that thinking^^
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
p8ntballsk8r said:
...I'm saying if I'm spreading 1-10 and if variance occurs on my 10u bet against me, this will hurt 10x more than my 1u bet where variance helps me.
That's exactly right. Since your big bets often make up the bulk of your action for a session, your results will cluster around those few bets. Often times your entire day might be determined by one hand (usually a max bet that gets split and doubled several times).

It can feel imposssible to recover from a "hand from Hell", but the excitement you get from a winning "magic hand" is incredible.

-Sonny-
 
Sonny said:
That's exactly right. Since your big bets often make up the bulk of your action for a session, your results will cluster around those few bets. Often times your entire day might be determined by one hand (usually a max bet that gets split and doubled several times).

It can feel imposssible to recover from a "hand from Hell", but the excitement you get from a winning "magic hand" is incredible.

-Sonny-
Sure, I call that the "one pip" parameter of a game. It's a little bit like Planck's Constant, one pip is the smallest difference that can be measured on a card and this parameter is equal to the amount of difference that pip can make in your results.

Illustration: most counting systems count the 5 and the 6 the same way. So you have a max bet out, you split and double it to the max. Let's say it was 20 units, split 4 times, doubled each hand, for a total of 160 units. You end up with 18 to 20 on each hand. Not bad.

Now the dealer turns his hole card. He had a 6 up, and you are relieved when he turns a 10. So what's the next card? The 5 and the 6 count the same, right? Not now they don't! There's a 320 unit difference between the two, and a 320 unit loss has been enough to turn people off to blackjack. If your win rate is 2 units per hour, you can count on the difference between a 5 and a 6 as being equivalent to 160 hours at the tables, 4 weeks of full-time play. One little pip. This is an extreme example of what variance can do; that a difference so small you don't even count it can make the difference between wonders and horrors.
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
Tuesday morning in Vegas,I'm playing at the $3 table,spreading $3-$25,occasionally letting a winning $25 bet ride,so its a 3-50 spread.I'm up about $175 and getting ready to leave.I figure I'll play one more DD shoe and call it a trip.Playing 4 handed,around 20 cards are dealt on the first round,not one of them above a NINE.SinceI'm leaving and won't be back for several months,I figure I'll push it and jump to two hands at $35 each.Am dealt 2,2 and Ace,4.Dealer shows a 3,and there still isn't a face card in sight.I split my 2s,get a 9 and a TEN.I double down on Eleven and draw a Four.Still no Faces in sight.I decide to stand on my Twelve,double down on my ACE/FOUR and draw an Eight. Next player hits and draws a SIX. Had I hit my Twelve,I'd have 2 hands of Twenty and Twentyone,instead of the crap I have.Third base draws the second TEN out of the deck and dealer flips her hole card to show a FIVE.Then she draws a SIX,followed by a SEVEN,winning all bets and clearing the table..
I just lost 80% of my profits,but am facing a shoe that is Donald Trump-like rich.I take all my remaining chips,split them in two and play two more hands
$110 each. I'm dealt a BJ,and ACE/NINE.Dealer shows a Twenty,and I walk away just about where I was before the last shoe started,no longer hungry.
Gawd,I love this game!
 
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ChefJJ

Well-Known Member
Automatic Monkey said:
Sure, I call that the "one pip" parameter of a game. It's a little bit like Planck's Constant, one pip is the smallest difference that can be measured on a card and this parameter is equal to the amount of difference that pip can make in your results.

Illustration: most counting systems count the 5 and the 6 the same way. So you have a max bet out, you split and double it to the max. Let's say it was 20 units, split 4 times, doubled each hand, for a total of 160 units. You end up with 18 to 20 on each hand. Not bad.

Now the dealer turns his hole card. He had a 6 up, and you are relieved when he turns a 10. So what's the next card? The 5 and the 6 count the same, right? Not now they don't! There's a 320 unit difference between the two, and a 320 unit loss has been enough to turn people off to blackjack. If your win rate is 2 units per hour, you can count on the difference between a 5 and a 6 as being equivalent to 160 hours at the tables, 4 weeks of full-time play. One little pip. This is an extreme example of what variance can do; that a difference so small you don't even count it can make the difference between wonders and horrors.
Damn that pip when you get an ace when doubling on 11!
 
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