Third base - sure loser?
- Thread starter blackjackstudent
- Start date
Katweezel
Well-Known Member
Harrahs scalped
What makes you think Shad has a strand of hair? Could be the sands of time already scalped him... As for Custer Died for your Sins; that is one classic Pantherism. :laugh::laugh: I'm one believer that Custer will soon rise from the dead in a second coming, join forces with Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse and wipe out... Harrahs and... slots.creeping panther said:Ok Shad, that is it, I have had it with you.
The date of the BASH is now set and YOU ARE GOING!!!
My black Lear Jet will be sitting on the the TARMAC of JFK On the date I have PM'd you. You will know it as it has "Custer Died For Your Sins" stenciled on the sides in big blood red letters. You will then enter the plane, which will be protected by some very stern looking "BJ Warriors" for your free trip to the BASH. Once there you will attempt to be sociable, have at your beck and call beautiful Cheyenne Maidens, whom you may not touch just look at, take part in my seminar in the private hospitality room, "The Predator system", of course at no cost. (Usually I charge $1000 a class, cheap for what you get
After that we will attempt to get you to talk BJ with all the attendess, play fine BJ, non stop for hours, eat and drink and be Merry.:toast:
I do promise that after all the partying is over every strand of your hair will be intact.:laugh:
AIF,
CP
tribute
Well-Known Member
Third Base
Here is a little wisdom from Fred:
http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/nobody-wants-to-play-at-an-empty-blackjack-table-17424
Here is a little wisdom from Fred:
http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/nobody-wants-to-play-at-an-empty-blackjack-table-17424
creeping panther
Banned
Kat
CP
Great post BJ Bro":laugh:Katweezel said:What makes you think Shad has a strand of hair? Could be the sands of time already scalped him... As for Custer Died for your Sins; that is one classic Pantherism. :laugh::laugh: I'm one believer that Custer will soon rise from the dead in a second coming, join forces with Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse and wipe out... Harrahs and... slots.
CP
Blackjackstudent.
The following is a piece from the book, Knock out Black Jack.(p117-118). It is a bit long winded and the author does have a PHD in maths, but after all BJ is about the mathematical edge. That's why we count.
basically he is saying it makes no difference in the long run where you sit or how other people play.
Can the play of another player, no mater how good or bad, affect your chances of winning.Many believe it can. That bad players somehow "bring down" an entire table with their poor plays. NOT SO. In reality, the play of others has no impact on your own fortune. (The only exception to this is if the other players take all the cards forcing a re shuffle.) If there are sufficient cards to finish the round then other players have no overall effect on your expected outcome. Take a mathematical look at why this is true. Say we know that the remaining deck contains, X good (cards 10's-Aces) Y good cards (2's through 7's) ( the ko system includes 7's as + count cards) and Z neutral cards (8 and 9's) At the end of the deck the running count will be +4. So the present running count is 4+x-y. Now let's consider the next hit. The following are the probabilities of getting a good, bad, or neutral card: P(X)=X/(X+Y+Z) P(Y)=Y/(X+Y+Z) P(Z)=Z/(X+Y+Z). Assume for the moment that someone playing ahead of us takes a hit. If the player takes a good card, there are now only (X-1) good cards and (X+Y+Z-1)total cards remaining, so our chances of getting a good card after him would be (X-1)/(X+Y+Z-1). Like-wise if the player gets a bad card, our chances of getting a good card would be X/(X+Y+Z-1). finally if the player gets a neutral card, our chances of getting a good card would again be X/(X+Y+Z-1). To determine our overall chances of getting a good card, we need to multiply each of these conditional chances by their respective probabilities,and add. This yields: P(X)=[X/(x+Y+Z)]x[(X-1)/(X+Y+Z-1)]+[Y/(X+Y+Z)]x[X/(X+Y+Z-1)]+[Z/(X+Y+Z)]x[X/(X+Y+Z-1)] Collecting terms in the numerator give us: P(X)=X(X+Y+Z-1)/[(X+Y+Z)(X+Y+Z-1)] OR SIMPLY PUT, P(X)=X/(x+y+z) and this, as you can see, is precisely the original chance of getting a good card if we had taken the first hit! It makes no difference whether an earlier player takes a hit, two hits, or twenty hits. Overall WE STILL HAVE THE SAME CHANCE OF GETTING THE CARD WE WANT, as long as there is at least one card left after he has done with his hand. Further more, AS LONG AS THERE ARE SUFFICIENT CARDS LEFT IN THE DECK TO FINISH THE ROUND, IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE HOW OTHER PLAYERS PLAY. In terms of the expected final value of your hand, or the dealers hand, and hence your chance of ultimately winning or loosing.
PERSONALLY I try to sit at 3'rd base so I can see every card as it is dealt and it gives me more time to react and keep the count more accurately (As most people do stop and think about what they are going to do) and also not have to rush to make my decision.
PS If you are a beginner read the book and try the system. I play it and it works.
a5teve.
The following is a piece from the book, Knock out Black Jack.(p117-118). It is a bit long winded and the author does have a PHD in maths, but after all BJ is about the mathematical edge. That's why we count.
basically he is saying it makes no difference in the long run where you sit or how other people play.
Can the play of another player, no mater how good or bad, affect your chances of winning.Many believe it can. That bad players somehow "bring down" an entire table with their poor plays. NOT SO. In reality, the play of others has no impact on your own fortune. (The only exception to this is if the other players take all the cards forcing a re shuffle.) If there are sufficient cards to finish the round then other players have no overall effect on your expected outcome. Take a mathematical look at why this is true. Say we know that the remaining deck contains, X good (cards 10's-Aces) Y good cards (2's through 7's) ( the ko system includes 7's as + count cards) and Z neutral cards (8 and 9's) At the end of the deck the running count will be +4. So the present running count is 4+x-y. Now let's consider the next hit. The following are the probabilities of getting a good, bad, or neutral card: P(X)=X/(X+Y+Z) P(Y)=Y/(X+Y+Z) P(Z)=Z/(X+Y+Z). Assume for the moment that someone playing ahead of us takes a hit. If the player takes a good card, there are now only (X-1) good cards and (X+Y+Z-1)total cards remaining, so our chances of getting a good card after him would be (X-1)/(X+Y+Z-1). Like-wise if the player gets a bad card, our chances of getting a good card would be X/(X+Y+Z-1). finally if the player gets a neutral card, our chances of getting a good card would again be X/(X+Y+Z-1). To determine our overall chances of getting a good card, we need to multiply each of these conditional chances by their respective probabilities,and add. This yields: P(X)=[X/(x+Y+Z)]x[(X-1)/(X+Y+Z-1)]+[Y/(X+Y+Z)]x[X/(X+Y+Z-1)]+[Z/(X+Y+Z)]x[X/(X+Y+Z-1)] Collecting terms in the numerator give us: P(X)=X(X+Y+Z-1)/[(X+Y+Z)(X+Y+Z-1)] OR SIMPLY PUT, P(X)=X/(x+y+z) and this, as you can see, is precisely the original chance of getting a good card if we had taken the first hit! It makes no difference whether an earlier player takes a hit, two hits, or twenty hits. Overall WE STILL HAVE THE SAME CHANCE OF GETTING THE CARD WE WANT, as long as there is at least one card left after he has done with his hand. Further more, AS LONG AS THERE ARE SUFFICIENT CARDS LEFT IN THE DECK TO FINISH THE ROUND, IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE HOW OTHER PLAYERS PLAY. In terms of the expected final value of your hand, or the dealers hand, and hence your chance of ultimately winning or loosing.
PERSONALLY I try to sit at 3'rd base so I can see every card as it is dealt and it gives me more time to react and keep the count more accurately (As most people do stop and think about what they are going to do) and also not have to rush to make my decision.
PS If you are a beginner read the book and try the system. I play it and it works.
a5teve.
creeping panther
Banned
steve
I also prefer 3rd at 6d and middle at DD.
I also like 3rd as I can stand to play if I desire as more room.
CP
Nice post Steve.a5teve said:
I also prefer 3rd at 6d and middle at DD.
I also like 3rd as I can stand to play if I desire as more room.
CP
Last position is better..
Last position is better b/c you'll see more cards before having to take any action... i.e. you'll have more knowledge about what's left in the shoe by the time you have to take action because everyone else will have gone before you, drawing more cards out.
- c
Last position is better b/c you'll see more cards before having to take any action... i.e. you'll have more knowledge about what's left in the shoe by the time you have to take action because everyone else will have gone before you, drawing more cards out.
- c
kewljason
Well-Known Member
In all honesty, I don't even care for third base anymore. Seeing a few more cards before making my decision? ahh...shoe games don't matter that much. I can do without the geniuses that are upset when I hit my 12 vs dealer 3 or stand on 16 vs 10, or my personal favorite insist that somebody has to take a hit or the dealer never busts. It's widely known that counters like third base, so I'll hide in the middle of the table where I can make a quick getaway if the count tanks. The east coast casinos pack the tables so close together that third base and first base are usually poking each other in the back and god forbid if someone sits to your right that has spent a little too much time at the buffet....you are pinned in like a rat. :laugh:
blackjackstudent
Well-Known Member
Hi all! Thanks for all your replies and jokes about third base - I initially posted that topic on the forum because on a sports betting forum, I received a strange email from probably a scammer who was going to sell my blackjack systems for the amount of $ 1200 USD (= $ 1500 AUD). It was Casino Busters International and they stress that no card counting was required to beat the casinos. They emailed me clues as to how to play Blackjack. Not that I took them seriously enough but one of the thing that they mention is that third base is often a losing seat position and I am better off sitting at first base.
This triggered a series of thoughts as I vaguely remember that when I was playing blackjack as a basic strategist, I tended to win more sitting at first base compared to third base. Mind you, before I was introduced to counting, I was flat betting and playing perfect basic strategy. Hence the reason for me posting up this topic on this forum which I think should be moved to the voodoo section.
A5teve, I have KO Blackjack book and I think it doesnt matter where you seat and how other people play. In the long term, it doesnt matter but you know what gamblers perceive things as. Generally, I notice if the table is going well with two boxes and you come in and add an extra box, they will get visibly upset. Thats how suspicious most people are these days - not just the primitive Asians (mind you I am Asian myself) but many gamblers.
Personally, I think sitting at third base allows you to obtain more information before making a playing decision (some decisions like 16 vs 10 or 12 vs 4 are crucial esp. when you are playing a 2 deck or 4 deck games). It allows you time to count the cards before making a decision and it allows you to annoy the table when you divert from BS at crucial counts.
This triggered a series of thoughts as I vaguely remember that when I was playing blackjack as a basic strategist, I tended to win more sitting at first base compared to third base. Mind you, before I was introduced to counting, I was flat betting and playing perfect basic strategy. Hence the reason for me posting up this topic on this forum which I think should be moved to the voodoo section.
A5teve, I have KO Blackjack book and I think it doesnt matter where you seat and how other people play. In the long term, it doesnt matter but you know what gamblers perceive things as. Generally, I notice if the table is going well with two boxes and you come in and add an extra box, they will get visibly upset. Thats how suspicious most people are these days - not just the primitive Asians (mind you I am Asian myself) but many gamblers.
Personally, I think sitting at third base allows you to obtain more information before making a playing decision (some decisions like 16 vs 10 or 12 vs 4 are crucial esp. when you are playing a 2 deck or 4 deck games). It allows you time to count the cards before making a decision and it allows you to annoy the table when you divert from BS at crucial counts.