Those neutral cards are not so neutral!

[FLASH1296]

Renzey,

Your finding of an advantage of > 1.4% agrees with my back-of-the-envelope,

computation - which was 2% before subtracting the House edge.

You said: "It adopted itself a radically aggressive basic strategy ..."

Could you explain ? It almost sounds like a neural net teaching itself to play.

T.I.A.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

]That may not be the answer.

Swapping the position of the Six with the Deuce will serve to enhance the Betting Correlation,
but the power of using the group to gain information re: playing stiff hands will be diminished.[/SIZE][/COLOR]

To a degree. Which particular stiff hands did you have in mind, and how important is the 6 relative to them? Swapping the 2 and 6 would actually help with the 15 vs. 10 decision, which is an important one in anyone's book.

 

[Renzey]

"It adopted itself a radically aggressive basic strategy ..."

Could you explain ? It almost sounds like a neural net teaching itself to play.

T.I.A.

My simulator, as antiquated as it is (Wong BJA circa 1997) derives its own basic strategy for decks with customized content. It played that basic strategy with flat bets.

 

[FLASH1296]

A close reading of Peter Griffin's extensive charts on the effects of removal on preferred play of the hand is very enlightening.

I painstakingly perused the entirety of the charts and found that 6's are sometimes KEY CARDS, where a surplus or deficit of sixes has strong effects on both the player's hand and the dealer's hand.

The best example is 15 vs. a dealer face card.

Extra faces enhance your chances of turning a 15 into a 21 while simultaneously increasing the chances of the dealer having a 6 to of with her face card - creating the worst stiff - a 16.

If that 15 was a 16 a deficit of 6's would help the player a little BUT it would be slightly beneficial to the dealer as well. If there were surplus sixes, then again the surplus would harm the player and the dealer both.

Remember. Stiff hands [from 12 to 15] are rendered standing hands by the editions of a SIX.

That sounds important to me.

If one is doubling a soft 13, 14, 15 Sixes (6's) are important

 

[creeping panther]

Maz

That is about the best advice you've given, don't listen to you. Somehow in the last few weeks you went from a daily grinder into a playboy high roller. A bit of advice for ya slick from a real pro, just because you don't know a stronger system doesn't mean it isn't out there. Your system may seem strong to you but I wouldn't think of wasting my time with it. Its all relative pal. I am no grinder, and if you can't figure a better way of handling your business at the table, your dreams of big breasted women and even bigger money, will stay right here in your little message board world.

And to you from me.:toast:

:laugh:

And to Big Breasted women...:gaga::laugh:

CP

 

[JSTAT]

I have often wondered if the obscurity of my counting method is the reason no one has ever really talked about this but it is essentially the means in which the casino can make a nice killing in a "neutral" count.

Can some of you that utilize other counting methods evaluate if these others systems give any indicators of this particular scenario? Flash, you use some fancy dancy HiOptIIMegaZenDiddlyDo count (or something to that effect) that is top notch. Are you able to detect a huge quantity of 6-9s played ahead and recognize this particular situation? I know basic hi-lo wouldn't pick it out but some of the other more refined counts are likely to. Some insights?

If six 7's, 8's, or 9's and three 2-6's with four face cards are played at a heads up single deck game, we have the advantage. The chance of being dealt a blackjack rises to 6.47% instead of the 4.83% off the top. And we can calculate perfect insurance from a Ten Count that doesn't include aces. The aces are side counted, giving us perfect blackjack frequency prediction and insurance. The hi-lo count is -1 and the eye in the sky will think we are nuts to make a big bet. I employed this method in the 90's at Reno and Lake Tahoe. Played untouched for seven years. The pit and eye thought I was a long term loser. I laughed all the way to the bank.

JSTAT

 

[nightspirit]

I employed this method in the 90's at Reno and Lake Tahoe. Played untouched for seven years. The pit and eye thought I was a long term loser. I laughed all the way to the bank.

Back in the days when De La Hoya was still boxing...

JSTAT Rumbles in Reno

 

[JSTAT]

Back in the days when De La Hoya was still boxing...

JSTAT Rumbles in Reno

Thanks for putting up that link nightspirit. It brings back a lot of good memories.:grin: I remember that trip to Reno in 1996. The Reno Hilton is now the Grand Sierra Resort(GSR). Content of the link below.


Subject: Trip Report: JSTAT rumbles in Reno
From: [email protected] (JStat44864)
Date: 1996/06/10
Message-Id: <[email protected]>
Sender: [email protected]
Organization: America Online, Inc. (1-800-827-6364)
Reply-To: [email protected] (JStat44864)
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.blackjack


After a long and exhausting drive to Reno from
the Bay Area, I decided to check into the Reno
Hilton for a room for the night just hours before
the Oscar De La Hoya and Julio Cesar Chavez fight
and play a couple of hours of blackjack. My wife
suggested that I stay at the Hilton instead of going
to Tahoe(Did she know that a unknown epidemic had
severely stricken over 100 guests that week?).

After checking in for the Friday night rate of $59.00,
I decided to play blackjack before seeing my room.
The Hilton has strategically placed a small blackjack
pit on the way to the hotel elevators to lure their
guests to play before checking out their rooms. This
pit was all $3.00 minumum and as you would expect
the play was very slow. These games were 4 deck and
dealt face down.

Some players at my table had to continually told not
hold the cards with both hands. Other were warned
by the dealer not to touch their money when placing
the cards to indicate that"they were good". After 20
minutes of this debacle, I decided to leave after
winning $20.00. I vowed that I will only play at $25.00
min. tables after this session of ignorance from new
players.

After seeing my room and regrouping, I went in search
of a $25.00 game to grind out. I found several and
managed to scrape $400.00 spreading 25.00-$50.00.
With this action, I was able to attend this title bout
with all the other VIP's at a convention room. What a
great fight! De La Hoya really drilled Chavez in the
fourth round and is unquestionably the best fighter
today.

The Reno Hilton offers your basic Reno rules game BUT
they check under ALL tens and aces. No auto-peek here
for all you spooks and tell players. This property deals
1/2/4/6 decks of this wonderful game of 21. Happy
hunting!

JSTAT

 

[k_c]

If six 7's, 8's, or 9's and three 2-6's with four face cards are played at a heads up single deck game, we have the advantage. The chance of being dealt a blackjack rises to 6.47% instead of the 4.83% off the top. And we can calculate perfect insurance from a Ten Count that doesn't include aces. The aces are side counted, giving us perfect blackjack frequency prediction and insurance. The hi-lo count is -1 and the eye in the sky will think we are nuts to make a big bet. I employed this method in the 90's at Reno and Lake Tahoe. Played untouched for seven years. The pit and eye thought I was a long term loser. I laughed all the way to the bank.

JSTAT

I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings but the single deck shoe comp described isn't too advantageous. The top image shows that with perfect play a single deck shoe comp with 2 sevens, 2 eights, 2 nines, 4 tens, 1 three, 1 four, and 1 five removed yields a player advantage of .1016%. Rules are s17, DOA, 1 split allowed for both aces and non-aces, NDAS, one card to split aces, no surrender. This is with perfect play - player can't do better than that.

Bottom image shows the same comp/rules but uses full deck total dependent basic strategy. Player's EV using basic strategy is -.1751%.

You are right that player has a 6.48% probability of being dealt a blackjack. However, player will have no gain at all for insurance in a heads up game. This is because if dealer is dealt an up card of ace on the next round, there is no possible hand that player can be dealt where insurance is positive EV. The best it will ever be, assuming heads up play, is a 0.00% EV bet. (The referenced insurance count in the bottom image will in no case be above 0 for the next round in a heads up game. 0 is the break even point for insurance using this count as I'm pretty sure you know.)

Even if the rules allowed split to 4 hands and DAS for non-ace pairs, this particular composition would still be slightly negative to the basic strategy player.

 

[Tarzan]

Neutral Cards Negative People

I have looked at the effect of removal in the past and what a sim works out to and compared it to what I have noticed in hundreds and hundreds of hours of play and tried to make sense of it, this little common denominator of what I spoke of. Its an interesting subject... that really rouses people up apparently!

I'm thinking I should have worded the original post differently to only ask about the ability to detect the 6-9's in various counting systems. Oh well...

Maz, obviously you know that I have no business being anywhere near a blackjack table since I am a complete idiot and you are god's gift to blackjack. I am going to stop playing blackjack and perhaps join the Peace Corp and go to like... teach Malasians how to plant rice better or some s**t like that. Okay, well... maybe not...

Catching up to this board after a few days and whew! Looking over a few of the posts makes me think, "Why do I hang out with clowns like this?"

 

[FLASH1296]

My Post above <edited>


A close reading of Peter Griffin's extensive charts on the effects
of removal on the preferred play of a hand is very enlightening.

I painstakingly perused the entirety of the charts and found that 6's
are sometimes KEY CARDS, where a surplus or deficit of sixes
has strong effects on both the player's hand and the dealer's hand.

The best example is 15 vs. a dealer face card.

Extra SIXES (6's) enhance your chances of
turning a 15 into a 21 while simultaneously
increasing the chances of the dealer having a 6 to
go with her face card - creating the weakest stiff - a 16.

If that 15 was instead a 16, a deficit of 6's would
help the player a little BUT it would be slightly beneficial to
the dealer as well. If there were surplus sixes, then again
the surplus would harm the player and the dealer both.

Remember. Stiff hands [12 to 15] are rendered standing hands by a SIX (6)

If one is doubling a soft 13, 14, 15 Sixes (6's) are very important.

 

[MAZ]

Maz, obviously you know that I have no business being anywhere near a blackjack table since I am a complete idiot and you are god's gift to blackjack.

See, now you're catching on. You may be slow, but at least you have some limited comprehension of what is truth. Although calling me gods gift is demeaning in the sense that I am real and god is not, I understand your admiration for me. I would have it too if I were you.

 

[FLASH1296]

There are four (4) possibilities:

A. Maz exists and God does not
B. God exists and Maz does not
C. Both Exist
D. Neither exist


Flash's Future Book Odds:

A. 3 to 5
B. 9 to 1
C. 7 to 2
D. Off the Board

 

[creeping panther]

Maz

See, now you're catching on. You may be slow, but at least you have some limited comprehension of what is truth. Although calling me gods gift is demeaning in the sense that I am real and god is not, I understand your admiration for me. I would have it too if I were you.

You have got to stop posting this way...you are KILLING ME:laugh::laugh::laugh:

CP

 

[JohnDiego]

Information on the Tarzan and Gordon counts

Where may I find such information?

 

[blackjack avenger]

back to the beginning

I read this whole thread lol
Think original post was before I joined.

Halves considers the 7 & 9 for betting.

The 7 & 9 are not betting neutral so not surprising hi lo fails to capture this fact. A strong count won't miss much.

I dont understand focusing on rare occurences.

Arent the effects of removal what they are? Unless we have some fantasy, warped subset? If we run a long enough sim all the weird subsets we might face do get considered.

 

[zengrifter]

I know of no counting system that identifies when a high proportion of neutral cards have been removed ...

The system that did just that is called CORE. But it was debunked. zg