Thrashed again!

Richard Pugh said:
…I just wondered do the AP players out there always play BS like a robot or are there times when you duck out on a hunch - like standing on a 12 vs 2 because a big bet is out, you have a 'feeling' it's a 10 at the top and you'd prefer him to win it (hole of 5,6,7,8,9) than to bust it yourself.
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I don’t ever play hunches. They are too expensive, especially when I have a big bet out. That’s when proper play is the most important. For example, standing on 12 vs. 2 with a $100 bet will cost you about $3 every time you do it. It’s like giving a tip to the casino. You’re giving them a little extra money for no reason.

Richard Pugh said:
I know in theory every time you go against BS you surrender a bit to the house but in one round it can't be a huge amount (?) and there were a few times today when I played a marginal hunch (e.g. standing on a 14/15/16 vs a Dealer 10) and as if I was 'in sync' with the shoe (RNG) most of them worked ?
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Some of those hunches are even more expensive. Here’s how much you are giving away with those plays:

14 vs. 10 = $7.71
15 vs. 10 = $3.62

As you said, there are times when an AP will vary his strategy in certain situations, but that’s very different than playing a hunch. An AP doesn’t want to tip the casino on every hand he plays and neither should a BS player.

-Sonny-
 
A typical online game is the LAST place you want to play hunches. The deck is shuffled every hand. You're playing against an unfeeling, uncaring, random number generator. It's the proving ground for basic strategy.

If you want to get fancy, use a composition dependent strategy. Mainly only applicable if you're playing single deck. And it only makes the teeniest of dents in the house edge.
 
EasyRhino said:
A typical online game is the LAST place you want to play hunches. The deck is shuffled every hand. You're playing against an unfeeling, uncaring, random number generator. It's the proving ground for basic strategy.

If you want to get fancy, use a composition dependent strategy. Mainly only applicable if you're playing single deck. And it only makes the teeniest of dents in the house edge.
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To get really fancy, he can play multi-hand BJ online and count. Use the Gordon Count (2-5 = +1, 10's = -1) or RPM (2-6= +1, 9-10= -1) because all you really care about is the 16 vs. 10 decision. Hit if the RC is negative or zero, stand if it is positive. Of course the RC is begun anew after every hand. but you get to see at least 11 cards before making any decision, assuming 5 hands are dealt.
 
if your playing online and say your going after a bonus. to where your ev is actually positive as a result of the bonus. would anyone raise there bets from time to time in hopes of getting lucky? talking one of these online games where maybe they deal about a third of the pack or so. say maybe bet if a unusually lot of low cards had come out?
 
Sonny said:
I wish it were that simple. The swings are going to be big no matter how conservatively you play. Even a small RoR carries a fairly high probability of losing half of the bankroll. For example, a 5% RoR has a 22% chance of losing half. Even a meager 0.1% RoR carries a 3% chance of losing half. I wish I could say that my results are due to careful planning and intelligent bankroll leveraging, but in reality I just haven’t played enough hands to see much of the really bad stuff. Even the best laid plans are subject to Lady Luck's mood swings.-Sonny-
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Well I guess I would say the swings in terms of % of total bankroll being lost at some point will not be nearly as big proportionally with a low initial ROR compared to a higher one. Especially with losing say a % of roll greater than 50%. Like maybe at full-Kelly you might have a 10% chance of losing 90% of your roll at some point but at 5% less than 1%. At 0.1% ROR, you'd have almost no chance of losing 90% of roll at any point, many many more thousands of times less than a kelly ROR even though your lifetime risk is say only 1300 times less.

Does that make sense at all or do I have the wrong idea?
 
blackchipjim said:
In everyone's carear as an ap they get the tar beat out of them. Well it finally happend with the biggest one day loss of my playing bj. I lost one hundred units in one day and couldn't recover but a small amount at the bitter end. The bj gods were mad at me and was cursed shoe after shoe and it never changed. I had to reasses bankrolls a few times throughout the day just to keep within my limits. I personally hate days like this because it makes you wonder what in the heck you walked into. The worst part of the ordeal was it didn't matter the table or dealer I was destined to never get a hand above 16 and loss every double or split. I'll be numb for a good long while and shall not harken on the door of destiny for a while. blackchipjim:cry:
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100u loss in one day is NOTHING. zg
 
So much to say...

I always try to play like a robot, but sometimes something comes up and I'll do something different like DD on a 12 against dealers 3-6. I catch a solid more times than not.

I won the lottery. Back in 1992 I hit 5 out of 6 in Illinois for a $3329.00 win. I don;t play very much since. The odds of catching seems greater than they were prior to that big hit. I did play a game of KENO in Kansas on the way home yesterday. Even took the sucker bet called a bullseye. I did hit one number out of ten. Thought it paid 6 bucks, but I didn't understand the rules. Still I may have tossed a winning ticket into the round bin. 1 number was supposed to pay 6 bucks.

Back to losing at BJ. My biggest loss was $1750.00. I was up 1750 at one point but was trying to get a few more bucks to head to the $100.00 table. I handled it by leaving the casino, going across the street and losing 500 more., then I walked down the strip closing out my accounts with all the casinos where I had money stored. I haven't been back since.

Best of luck next time out to all!
 
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