"Trip Report" LV

[natdm]

Hey, guys. So, just thought I'd throw in a little story.

New to card counting. I can keep the count under any condition I'd see in most casinos, I think. I've been practicing for 3hrs a day since April. Know all the basic rules, etc. BUT, I just turned 21 in May. I've been to Monte Carlo, stupid Casino Arizona, and now.. Las Vegas! My initial input was $100. Quickly shot up to about 600. The day was pretty cool. No great stories though. BUT, day TWO..

I was up $300 on the initial 200 I put in for the day. Hopping random casinos, I went to the Excalibur. Got some moneys! Then, went to NyNy and played, got some there too. Went to cash in everything, but I fond out Excalibur put a hold on all black chips. I had quite a few.. so I had to go back to cash it in. Decided to play some blackjack since it was on the way. Fatal decision.

After betting the minimum on an 8 deck shoe, about 80% pen., 2 decks before the cut card with the count +8 (true), thought I'd go crazy.

Bet 3 hands of $75. Dealer shows 5.. I get 10-10, 4-7 and 8-8. Split the tens.. 10-7, 10-6. Double the 11.. get 17. Split eights, get 8-2, 8-10. Double on 10, get 15. Stay on 8-10.

Dealer gets 5... A!

I drew a crowd, that's for sure.

Then I made a mistake of counting at a table with nobody to help me burn the cards (just me at the table). Counts way up, but the dealer seems to get all the high cards. Following my basic betting, I go higher with the count.. and all the dealer gets are 18, 20 and BJ. I didn't get anything other than 16 and busts, it seemed.

Cut the ****.. trip report is DOWN 500. It WAS my first vegas experience. Counting worked most of the time, but luck wasn't on my side.

Without tearing me to shreads, what was my deal? Did I do anything wrong (besides sit at a lone table)?

 

[rukus]

not knowing your bankroll, i cannot say if you were overbetting. but with 3 hands of 75 at a Tc of 5, i hope you have something around 12-15k in total bank. if not, you were most likely overbetting.

other than that, i think it was just plain variance. with a max bet of 225 (75x3), if that is even your max bet, being down 500 after a shoe or two or ten is normal. being down over 1k i would still consider very possible. you shot up like 800 (500 + 300) very quickly, so why wouldnt it be possible for you to lose just as much very quickly if the hands didn't work out this time?

as kasi likes to ask, do you know what to expect from your style of play and the games you choose to sit at? do you know what you expect to make per hour and what your hourly standard deviation is?

without knowing your count system, i cant say any more. also, nyny and excalibur are not the greatest places to be counting in that city. work on finding better games.

finally, why in the world would you want any other players at the table when you expect high cards to be pouring out? you want to save as many of those hands for yourself as possible. it just so happens this time around the dealer got the high cards and your splits and doubles did not work out. in the long run they will though if you are doing everything properly.

 

[natdm]

I was overbetting, probably getting pretty cocky towards the end. That, no doubt, was the death of me.

And no, NONE of that information is something I have.

Probably a good idea I held back so much information so you couldn't say as much!

Thanks for your help, man. Any advice on how to make my own deviation/hourly rate from bankroll data and etc?

 

[ihate17]

overbeting, variance and game choices

Playing above your bankroll and the variance of blackjack go together so closely. Even though you know you have an edge at a certain count, your edge is so small that loses can come very easily. When a person has had a string of luck (variance), especially being somewhat new to this, there is a natural tendency to push it up and make a killing. Unfortunately, sometimes you are the one getting killed. Stay within your bankroll and build your bankroll through winnings and adding to it from other income sources.

You played at EX and NYNY. I personally do not like playing Excalibur, too many poor games. NYNY is not bad if you play higher limits. For your bankroll you were sitting next to two casinos that would give you a better game for your money, MGM and Trop. Both of them will give you 6 deck shoes for $10 with superior rules to the 8 decker you lost on. Of course, you could have gotten killed at these places also, but at least you would have gone in with a better opportunity.

ihate17

 

[sagefr0g]

I was overbetting, probably getting pretty cocky towards the end. That, no doubt, was the death of me.

And no, NONE of that information is something I have.

Probably a good idea I held back so much information so you couldn't say as much!

Thanks for your help, man. Any advice on how to make my own deviation/hourly rate from bankroll data and etc?

if you don't know how to figure that stuff out QFIT's CVCX will do it for you.
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/blackjack/software.html

 

[EasyRhino]

It sounds like you only brought a few hundred with you for the trip, so "going crazy" with $225 ont the table was definitely a problem. Was 3x$75 substantially more than you had been betting in positive counts previously? You mention how much you bought in for, but that doesn't really matter. What matters is a) how much you have for the trip, and b) how much you're willing to lose in your life.

Having the dealer get the high cards while you get the stiffs is an all too common occurence.

Having 3x bets balloon in to 6x bets (or more) also happens once in a while. As you saw, they can cause oustized swings in your bankroll (good and bad). While theyr'e fairly rare, the risk of them should be incorporated into your betting.

Also, if you were playing a lot of short sessions, then you may not have been getting in a lot of hands to experience a lot of variance. In fact, if you were likely to leave a joint after a win, you may have been unconsciously embarking on a "betting system" kind of like martingale, where you were capping sessions with small wins, but then when the losing started... look out.

PS - you went to the real Monte Carlo... before vegas?

 

[natdm]

I brought 1000 to play with, but dindnt put it all down.
thanks for the help, guys. Still in vegas so who knows.

Yeah, got back three days ago from Spain. Was there for the cup.. Crazy! We started in greece, so dropping by Monte Carlo was a must. I obviously didnt count though. Didnt even try. At their crappy tiny casinos, hand shuffled 6d, I did. Just for kicks.

 

[natdm]

I'll have to find some other way of getting stats, I'm on a mac. :-/

Probably just partition it later. Thanks, man.

 

[rukus]

I'll have to find some other way of getting stats, I'm on a mac. :-/

Probably just partition it later. Thanks, man.

i have a windows partition on my mac now. qfit products and powersim (a free simulator) both work fine on it.

 

[callipygian]

about 80% pen

How good is your deck estimation? I haven't scouted in a long time (for the reasons ihate17 pointed out - Tropicana and MGM Grand are both consistently good and are right across the street), but I don't think I've ever seen penetration that good at either Excalibur or NYNY.

 

[creeping panther]

8 decks...

did you say 8 decks?

Come on, find a much better game or do not play

CP

 

[ihate17]

MGM notched shoe, Trop very dealer dependent

How good is your deck estimation? I haven't scouted in a long time (for the reasons ihate17 pointed out - Tropicana and MGM Grand are both consistently good and are right across the street), but I don't think I've ever seen penetration that good at either Excalibur or NYNY.

MGM has the notch that many MGM casinos have at about 1.5. Trop is very dealer dependent. Find the right dealers and you are getting a good game, wrong dealer and move on.

ihate17