Trip Report - Positive Variance?

[maddencutter]

So I recently took my first playing trip, to a large city in Southern Nevada famous for having lots of casinos.

I was exclusively confined to the Strip. I ended up exclusively playing one game, at a number of different casinos. (More than one deck, fewer than 6.) I didn't quite have this plan when I set out, but after seeing what was there, this represented far and away the best opportunity. I was probably overbetting my bankroll somewhat, if you go by the books, but I was only there a short time, so I didn't mind taking some risk. I was spreading green - black. (2, occasionally 3 black.)

Anyway, I was just wildly successful, beyond anything I could have foreseen. After 2 days, I had one and a halfed my bankroll, and I had played 20 sit-downs or so, and probably left with more than I started with on 18 of those. In my head I knew it was positive variance, but I couldn't help feel a little cocky. The next few days were a lot more like what I imagined, but still on the positive side.

So. Is it really that easy? I had intended to play shoe games, and I hadn't even looked at the numbers for the game I was playing. I just now glanced, and I was surprised how high the EV is. What surprised me even more, I never seemed to get any heat. I was pretty much a hit-and-runner, but I never caught any signs that anyone knew what I was doing. I try to chat people a little, but my cover is far from great. I use some indicies, but I'm sloppy with it as I don't have them perfectly committed to memory.

Anyway, if anyone wants to PM and reply, that's cool. I don't want to ruin this for any of the locals, but I was just absolutely shocked at how easy this seemed.

 

[mjbballar23]

No, card counting is not that easy. You'll on average win maybe 55% of your sessions, not 90% like you experienced.

 

[jnrwilliam]

No, card counting is not that easy. You'll on average win maybe 55% of your sessions, not 90% like you experienced.

win 22 days in 30 days in average,
shoe Bj, when we were young.
session--- may be 60-65%, depend on the length.

 

[nicetrades200303]

So I recently took my first playing trip, to a large city in Southern Nevada famous for having lots of casinos.

I was exclusively confined to the Strip. I ended up exclusively playing one game, at a number of different casinos. (More than one deck, fewer than 6.) I didn't quite have this plan when I set out, but after seeing what was there, this represented far and away the best opportunity. I was probably overbetting my bankroll somewhat, if you go by the books, but I was only there a short time, so I didn't mind taking some risk. I was spreading green - black. (2, occasionally 3 black.)

Anyway, I was just wildly successful, beyond anything I could have foreseen. After 2 days, I had one and a halfed my bankroll, and I had played 20 sit-downs or so, and probably left with more than I started with on 18 of those. In my head I knew it was positive variance, but I couldn't help feel a little cocky. The next few days were a lot more like what I imagined, but still on the positive side.

So. Is it really that easy? I had intended to play shoe games, and I hadn't even looked at the numbers for the game I was playing. I just now glanced, and I was surprised how high the EV is. What surprised me even more, I never seemed to get any heat. I was pretty much a hit-and-runner, but I never caught any signs that anyone knew what I was doing. I try to chat people a little, but my cover is far from great. I use some indicies, but I'm sloppy with it as I don't have them perfectly committed to memory.

Anyway, if anyone wants to PM and reply, that's cool. I don't want to ruin this for any of the locals, but I was just absolutely shocked at how easy this seemed.

Nice run. And, no, it's not easy. Just be mentally prepared for those times when the blackjack God is on the dealer's side.

 

[Shoofly]

Anyway, I was just wildly successful, beyond anything I could have foreseen. After 2 days, I had one and a halfed my bankroll, and I had played 20 sit-downs or so, and probably left with more than I started with on 18 of those. In my head I knew it was positive variance, but I couldn't help feel a little cocky. The next few days were a lot more like what I imagined, but still on the positive side.

So. Is it really that easy? I had intended to play shoe games, and I hadn't even looked at the numbers for the game I was playing. I just now glanced, and I was surprised how high the EV is. What surprised me even more, I never seemed to get any heat. I was pretty much a hit-and-runner, but I never caught any signs that anyone knew what I was doing. I try to chat people a little, but my cover is far from great. I use some indicies, but I'm sloppy with it as I don't have them perfectly committed to memory.

No, it is not that easy. Enjoy the nice session, but don't expect it to last. This weekend I experienced my best shoe and best session ever. Nothing went wrong. Monster counts, plenty of snappers, making all my splits and doubles. The next day, the exact opposite. Dealer pulling 21's out of his you know what, dealer BJ just after the big bet goes out, me with nothing but busted stiffs, etc.

 

[Youk]

So I recently took my first playing trip, to a large city in Southern Nevada famous for having lots of casinos.

I was exclusively confined to the Strip. I ended up exclusively playing one game, at a number of different casinos. (More than one deck, fewer than 6.) I didn't quite have this plan when I set out, but after seeing what was there, this represented far and away the best opportunity. I was probably overbetting my bankroll somewhat, if you go by the books, but I was only there a short time, so I didn't mind taking some risk. I was spreading green - black. (2, occasionally 3 black.)

Anyway, I was just wildly successful, beyond anything I could have foreseen. After 2 days, I had one and a halfed my bankroll, and I had played 20 sit-downs or so, and probably left with more than I started with on 18 of those. In my head I knew it was positive variance, but I couldn't help feel a little cocky. The next few days were a lot more like what I imagined, but still on the positive side.

So. Is it really that easy? I had intended to play shoe games, and I hadn't even looked at the numbers for the game I was playing. I just now glanced, and I was surprised how high the EV is. What surprised me even more, I never seemed to get any heat. I was pretty much a hit-and-runner, but I never caught any signs that anyone knew what I was doing. I try to chat people a little, but my cover is far from great. I use some indicies, but I'm sloppy with it as I don't have them perfectly committed to memory.

Anyway, if anyone wants to PM and reply, that's cool. I don't want to ruin this for any of the locals, but I was just absolutely shocked at how easy this seemed.

It seems like you have a good grasp on what your expected EV is. Just remember that the EV is what we play for. In some sense, the results don't matter, as long as we are hitting the EV we want, insomuch that we can tolerate the variance.

Watch John Auston's video to keep your mind in check:
(Dead link: http://www.bjriskmanager.com/videos/random%20walk/vid_random_walk.html)

 

[maddencutter]

It seems like you have a good grasp on what your expected EV is. Just remember that the EV is what we play for. In some sense, the results don't matter, as long as we are hitting the EV we want, insomuch that we can tolerate the variance.

Watch John Auston's video to keep your mind in check:
(Dead link: http://www.bjriskmanager.com/videos/random%20walk/vid_random_walk.html)

Sort of.

I don't really have a good feel for how many hands I was getting in, or really even number of hours. I have a better idea now of my EV, but I didn't quite know it at the time. As I said, I play some "home-cooked" indices, so I don't know quite know how much that affects my bottom line either.

It seemed like I did have some strings of bad luck, but that they were much easier to weather than I had predicted.

Basically, I know I encountered some luck, and I know some of my success was my playing skill, but I don't unfortunately have all the math crunched to tell me exactly how much was which, and what to predict next time. I will definitely dig a little deeper next time so I can have a more tangible EV.

 

[Youk]

Sort of.

I don't really have a good feel for how many hands I was getting in, or really even number of hours. I have a better idea now of my EV, but I didn't quite know it at the time. As I said, I play some "home-cooked" indices, so I don't know quite know how much that affects my bottom line either.

It seemed like I did have some strings of bad luck, but that they were much easier to weather than I had predicted.

Basically, I know I encountered some luck, and I know some of my success was my playing skill, but I don't unfortunately have all the math crunched to tell me exactly how much was which, and what to predict next time. I will definitely dig a little deeper next time so I can have a more tangible EV.

It would be wise for you to buy some software that gives you your precise EV. That way, you can have some piece of mind on how much money you should be making an hour. It will also give you what your standard deviation is every 100 hands. Given that you are a green chipper, you should have no trouble spending the $100 or so bucks for CVData and/or BJRM.

Once you know your computer-software-generated EV, I typically lower my actual EV by 10% and raise my actual SD by 20%. This accounts for tipping (-), making betting cover plays (-), using less indices (I typically don't use 12 v 4, 5, 6) (-), wonging out in negative counts (+), and whatever other 'fudge factors' one should consider.

This usually leads to an SD about 20-30 times the EV. So going way above EV is always a possibility. In John's video, his SD is 32, and has a EV of 1.2, making his SD about 27 times the EV. You will have some very wild swings (whether positive or negative).

 

[paddywhack]

You will have some very wild swings (whether positive or negative).

The positive ones are the most pleasant, as you've experienced. :grin:

The negative ones can play havoc with you if you're not careful......

Best to play to get in the hours and let the numbers handle themselves. Sometimes not so easy to do though. Especially during a gut retching downturn.