Using the Red 7 - Counting for the First Time

[Dyepaintball12]

Hello all. Tommorow night me and my friend are going to Casino Windsor and will be playing starting at probably about 8, stopping eventually to sleep, then playing Saturday until we feel we should leave.

Anyway, this is my first time counting in a Casino, but I know how to count and have practiced all the time and know what Im doing for the most part.


This is the game I will be playing:

- 8 decks
- dealer stands on all 17
- double any card
- double after split
- you can split up to four times
- no surrender
- about 1 - 1.5 deck penetration
- blackjack pays 3:2


This is the system I am using:

Arnold Snyder's Red 7 Count
- (2-Red 7's count as +1, Black 7's-9 count as 0, Faces and Aces count as -1)
- Since there is 8 decks, I start the count at -16 and will not bet anything until the count gets to 0, where I have approx. a 1% edge.
- Deviations from BS: [+2= Insurance] [0+=stand 16v10, stand 12v3]
- Optional Deviations I may use: [+2=stand 12v2, 15v10, DD on 10vX]
- I will probably be flat betting $5-10(1 unit) because of my limited BR, but may use a slight spread of maybe 1-3 when the count gets up to +4 or +8.


OK well that is what Im doing, and Im wondering what my EV should be or if anyone has any input I would LOVE to hear it.

THANKS SO MUCH!!!

David

 

[Kasi]

OK well that is what Im doing, and Im wondering what my EV should be or if anyone has any input I would LOVE to hear it.THANKS SO MUCH!!!David

Hi David - I was wondering if u had gone on this trip yet or not. I'll give u my 2 cents and probably that's all it's worth.

If you play a "play-all" game those 8 deck monsters are essentially unbeatable with any counting system and certainly not a good choice of all the games available to commit a bankroll. And certainly not beatable with a 1-3 spread. Even if u back-count, I doubt if a 1-3 spread would do much good in the long-run either.

You mean they will deal out 6.5 to 7 decks? That's actually very good but usually 6 is more like it.

On a weekend, last time I was in Canada at Fallsview, a couple years ago, every table was a $25 min on Sat nite. And crowded.

If I recall correctly, you have a $300-400 bankroll. $400 would probably last u for 1000 hands flat-betting $10 with out too much problem. If there are only $25 tables, you'd most likely bust-out in 1000 hands.

So, sure, if u want to bet a little more in high counts why not. But I think whatever results u get will be more due to the vagaries of BJ rather than card-counting.

 

[SystemsTrader]

If you play a "play-all" game those 8 deck monsters are essentially unbeatable with any counting system and certainly not a good choice of all the games available to commit a bankroll. And certainly not beatable with a 1-3 spread. Even if u back-count, I doubt if a 1-3 spread would do much good in the long-run either.

That's a myth. Actually 8 decks games are beatable even doing play-all. I don't know why people think they are unbeatable. However you do require a large spread. Also if you get good pen, 8 deckers can have long advantages and are good for backcounting. A 1-3 spread will be fine for just backcounting in positive counts.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

That's a myth. Actually 8 decks games are beatable even doing play-all. I don't know why people think they are unbeatable. However you do require a large spread. Also if you get good pen, 8 deckers can have long advantages and are good for backcounting. A 1-3 spread will be fine for just backcounting in positive counts.

That's right. I did a comparison of 6D vs. 8D, and it turns out the advantage you give up playing 8D vs. 6D. is equal to about 9 cards penetration. That is significant, indeed, but if you can get any kind of a rule advantage or an additional quarter deck pen on the 8D game, it is the better choice. You also get slightly more hands per hour with 8D, all other things being equal.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Arnold Snyder's Red 7 Count
- (2-Red 7's count as +1, Black 7's-9 count as 0, Faces and Aces count as -1)
- Since there is 8 decks, I start the count at -16 and will not bet anything until the count gets to 0, where I have approx. a 1% edge.
- Deviations from BS: [+2= Insurance] [0+=stand 16v10, stand 12v3]
- Optional Deviations I may use: [+2=stand 12v2, 15v10, DD on 10vX]
- I will probably be flat betting $5-10(1 unit) because of my limited BR, but may use a slight spread of maybe 1-3 when the count gets up to +4 or +8.


OK well that is what Im doing, and Im wondering what my EV should be or if anyone has any input I would LOVE to hear it.

THANKS SO MUCH!!!

David

Good luck with your first counting session! The pen at Windsor varies you probably won't see only 1 deck cut out. Most of the time around the low 80s%. You probably will not see a $5 table either and if there is you won't be able to backcount it. So if you just wong in on $10 tables using a 1-3 spread you should have around a 1.80% advantage over the house and you will probably make between $2-$3 per hour with your trip bankroll. Bet these amounts at these counts for RED 7.
0- $10
5- $20
10- $30
Stay out of the negative counts if possible.

 

[Kasi]

That's a myth. Actually 8 decks games are beatable even doing play-all. I don't know why people think they are unbeatable. However you do require a large spread. Also if you get good pen, 8 deckers can have long advantages and are good for backcounting. A 1-3 spread will be fine for just backcounting in positive counts.

Yes, as u say, u would make a little money with a 1-16 spread, even 1-8, but, it's so little why bother?

Or, as Don Schlesinger says, "It should be obvious to all but the most masochistic of you that the play all approach to the AC 8-deck game is an utter waste of time."

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Hi David - I was wondering if u had gone on this trip yet or not. I'll give u my 2 cents and probably that's all it's worth.

No sir, I am going tommorow, Friday, March 30-Saturday, March 31.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Yes, as u say, u would make a little money with a 1-16 spread, even 1-8, but, it's so little why bother?

Or, as Don Schlesinger says, "It should be obvious to all but the most masochistic of you that the play all approach to the AC 8-deck game is an utter waste of time."

Same for any shoe game. Any shoe game that can be beaten with play-all can be beaten even worse by avoiding negative counts, so what would be the purpose of playing all?

 

[Kasi]

...so what would be the purpose of playing all?

My original point was exaxctly that - there basically isn't any point in playing a "play-all" 8 deck game. Maybe if 7 decks were dealt out but that ain't gonna happen, is it?

I think Schlesinger's point was, while yes, it''s beatable, it's such a poor use of one's bankroll, you're crazy to do it. He went on to say back-counting such a game with surrender and a 1-4 would be marginally playable.

Since it sounded to me David's plan was to play the whole shoe, I was trying to tell him, in nice way, not to expect too much gain from counting.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

My original point was exaxctly that - there basically isn't any point in playing a "play-all" 8 deck game. Maybe if 7 decks were dealt out but that ain't gonna happen, is it?

I think Schlesinger's point was, while yes, it''s beatable, it's such a poor use of one's bankroll, you're crazy to do it. He went on to say back-counting such a game with surrender and a 1-4 would be marginally playable.

Since it sounded to me David's plan was to play the whole shoe, I was trying to tell him, in nice way, not to expect too much gain from counting.

Even if was dealt out to the last card, there is no benefit from playing even one hand at negative EV. Play-all is never a better method, not even in the best games.

In a real casino, sometimes you have to, because of difficulties in getting into a game mid-shoe, heat, etc. So usually in SD or DD you play all. In a mediocre game like Windsor you'd never want to play all, but backcounting might be distracting for a brand-new player. maybe the best middle ground would be to sit down at the shuffle and Wong out of bad counts. That's almost as good as backcounting.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Oh I was planning on only Wonging in and out.

I am NOT intending to play through an entire shuffle.

 

[Renzey]

Ramp up at -2!

Dye -- With Arnold's Red 7 in the game you describe, you can and should wong in, or begin betting multiple units at -2. Throughout the shoe, when your running count is -2, your true count will always be between +1.7 and +1.0 (+1.7 early and +1.0 late). Your disadvantage off the top will be -0.45% and at a -2 running count with the few index plays you mentioned, you'll have an advantage varying between +0.50% and +0.15%.

Prolonged sims I've run with Red 7's sister system (Kiss III) showed increased performance when betting this way (as long as the game is S17).

 

[Kasi]

Good luck with your first counting session! The pen at Windsor varies you probably won't see only 1 deck cut out. Most of the time around the low 80s%. You probably will not see a $5 table either and if there is you won't be able to backcount it. So if you just wong in on $10 tables using a 1-3 spread you should have around a 1.80% advantage over the house and you will probably make between $2-$3 per hour with your trip bankroll. Bet these amounts at these counts for RED 7.
0- $10
5- $20
10- $30
Stay out of the negative counts if possible.

I'm just curious - what would u estimate his chances of busting betting as u say, wonging in at 0 as he says, assuming he's back-counting for 16 hours with 6 or 6.5 dealt out and a $400 bankroll and a $10 unit spreading 1-3? I guess he'd probably only play about 400 hands this way?

I get real real fuzzy on ROR. Basically clueless, other than getting a real vaguie idea of looking at tables. I can do it for flat-betting ok but that's it.

Seems to me it might be fairly high and a $10 uniit is also too high? In essence, maybe he'd have less chance of busting flat betting for 16 hours with a $10 unit playing, say, 1000 hands at a full table?

Thanks for any help.

Keep us posted on how your trip went David. And good luck. We're rooting for u as u begin your lifetime BJ journey!

 

[Kasi]

Dye -- With Arnold's Red 7 in the game you describe, you can and should wong in, or begin betting multiple units at -2. Throughout the shoe, when your running count is -2, your true count will always be between +1.7 and +1.0 (+1.7 early and +1.0 late). Your disadvantage off the top will be -0.45% and at a -2 running count with the few index plays you mentioned, you'll have an advantage varying between +0.50% and +0.15%.

Prolonged sims I've run with Red 7's sister system (Kiss III) showed increased performance when betting this way (as long as the game is S17).

Hi Renzey - my question above ought to be a breeze for you. What would u say his ROR is with all those assumptions above. If u want him to Wong in at -2, fine with me!

Is about the only way you can figure stuff like this out is run a sim?

 

[SystemsTrader]

I'm just curious - what would u estimate his chances of busting betting as u say, wonging in at 0 as he says, assuming he's back-counting for 16 hours with 6 or 6.5 dealt out and a $400 bankroll and a $10 unit spreading 1-3? I guess he'd probably only play about 400 hands this way?

I get real real fuzzy on ROR. Basically clueless, other than getting a real vaguie idea of looking at tables. I can do it for flat-betting ok but that's it.

Seems to me it might be fairly high and a $10 uniit is also too high? In essence, maybe he'd have less chance of busting flat betting for 16 hours with a $10 unit playing, say, 1000 hands at a full table?

Thanks for any help.

Keep us posted on how your trip went David. And good luck. We're rooting for u as u begin your lifetime BJ journey!

With a $400 bankroll his chance of busting out is over 50% using a 1-3 spread. If he just flat bets 1 $10 unit he will bust out 40% of the time. I did not run this for the 16 hours session as you propose maybe I will run it through the calculator later on. Either way his ror is high for very little reward. However I think this trip is more of a learning and get your feet wet session for David so the risk is worthwhile for the experience of it. Lossing $400 won't destroy him over his lifetime! As for playing with a $10 unit he has no choice because that is what the casino minimums are. In fact if the casino is busy on the Friday night he probably won't find a $10 table either and will have to bet a $15 or $25 unit.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Dye -- With Arnold's Red 7 in the game you describe, you can and should wong in, or begin betting multiple units at -2. Throughout the shoe, when your running count is -2, your true count will always be between +1.7 and +1.0 (+1.7 early and +1.0 late). Your disadvantage off the top will be -0.45% and at a -2 running count with the few index plays you mentioned, you'll have an advantage varying between +0.50% and +0.15%.

Prolonged sims I've run with Red 7's sister system (Kiss III) showed increased performance when betting this way (as long as the game is S17).

Dye Renzey's right I just went by the starting number you gave of 0. You should start your bets at these improved counts.
-2 - $10
4 - $20
8 - $30

 

[zengrifter]

- I will probably be flat betting $5-10(1 unit) because of my limited BR, but may use a slight spread of maybe 1-3 when the count gets up to +4 or +8.

Use your 1-3x $5u BUT avoid the neg-counts - do NOT play them. zg

 

[Kasi]

With a $400 bankroll his chance of busting out is over 50% using a 1-3 spread. If he just flat bets 1 $10 unit he will bust out 40% of the time. I did not run this for the 16 hours session as you propose maybe I will run it through the calculator later on. Either way his ror is high for very little reward. However I think this trip is more of a learning and get your feet wet session for David so the risk is worthwhile for the experience of it. Lossing $400 won't destroy him over his lifetime! As for playing with a $10 unit he has no choice because that is what the casino minimums are. In fact if the casino is busy on the Friday night he probably won't find a $10 table either and will have to bet a $15 or $25 unit.

Thanks for your estimate. I get about 30% ROR for a 1000 flat hands. Whatever.

With a $25 unit, better lucky than good!

 

[sabre]

Yes, as u say, u would make a little money with a 1-16 spread, even 1-8, but, it's so little why bother?

Or, as Don Schlesinger says, "It should be obvious to all but the most masochistic of you that the play all approach to the AC 8-deck game is an utter waste of time."

I don't understand this comment.

For an 8D S17 DOA,DAS,LS, 1.5 Decks cut off

I get a winrate of 1.58/100 (SD 3.61/hand) with KO 1-10 spread play-all

Why is this such an awful winrate? Of course, wonging in/out is far better, but I don't see why play all is an exercise in masochism.

 

[sabre]

I just ran a sim for 8D, DOA, DAS
2 decks cut off
no surrender


This still produces a 1.04/100 win rate with KO 1-10 spread.

Even under these poor conditions, I don't think winning $25/hour with a $25-$250 spread is a waste of time.