Using the Red 7 - Counting for the First Time

[Kasi]

I don't understand this comment.

For an 8D S17 DOA,DAS,LS, 1.5 Decks cut off

I get a winrate of 1.58/100 (SD 3.61/hand) with KO 1-10 spread play-all

Why is this such an awful winrate? Of course, wonging in/out is far better, but I don't see why play all is an exercise in masochism.

I can tell you he assumed no surrender when he said that.

As to all his other assumptions, it all related to his SCORE of any given game given the same $10000 bank and betting Kelly. Unit size would vary depending on spread, rules etc so that all games had the same ROR of 13.5% (I think).

He went on to say "Assuming no better than 6/8 and a generous 1-16 spread, it garners a pathetic $14.25/hr. If u spread 8-1 you might as well stay home...If you're planning to find profit potential in these 8-deck horrors, you're either going to have to find a cut of 7 decks or deeper or back-count".

If Don says so, that's good enough for me

 

[Kasi]

I just ran a sim for 8D, DOA, DAS
2 decks cut off
no surrender


This still produces a 1.04/100 win rate with KO 1-10 spread.

Even under these poor conditions, I don't think winning $25/hour with a $25-$250 spread is a waste of time.

Can someone help me with this? My first question would be, with a $400 bankroll, isn't a $25 unit HUGELY overbetting? What would a Kelly unit be - like maybe $8 tops? Maybe more like $1 so that when you're betting at a high TC and have, say, maybe a 2-3% advantage you could bet $10? And can't it be proven that if you bet double-kelly or more you will go broke with mathematical certainty?

No wonder I don't count.

OK - now I think I see you probably weren't suggesting this for David?
Maybe his point is that if you have the necessary bankroll to support such a betting spread, which would probably be alot more than 10000 to have a starting unit of $25. it's really a poor use of your money compared to other games available.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Well, this is what went down.

First off, Casino Windsors pits are a joke. Absolutely no heat at all. I had a very hard time counting but did my best and played BS with my friend and we luckily made $900 between us.

A couple times I looked at my friend and said "Wow, since there were X amount of low cards and X amount of highs, the count just went up +5 so we should bet more."

No heat.

I laughed alot. When I learn to count better, I am going to smoke that place.

 

[Kasi]

A couple times I looked at my friend and said "Wow, since there were X amount of low cards and X amount of highs, the count just went up +5 so we should bet more.".

Thanks for the report. Glad u guys won!

Were you just looking at the dealt cards on that one particular round when you said that?

 

[SystemsTrader]

Well, this is what went down.

First off, Casino Windsors pits are a joke. Absolutely no heat at all. When I learn to count better, I am going to smoke that place.

What was your max bet? If your max bet is green or red they won't care about you. Start wonging with blacks and you will get attention!

 

[Sonny]

My first question would be, with a $400 bankroll, isn't a $25 unit HUGELY overbetting? What would a Kelly unit be - like maybe $8 tops? Maybe more like $1

Yup, that sounds about right.

…when you're betting at a high TC and have, say, maybe a 2-3% advantage you could bet $10?

Right again. With a 3% edge the full-Kelly bet would be about $9-$10.

And can't it be proven that if you bet double-kelly or more you will go broke with mathematical certainty?

Yes, if you consistently bet double-Kelly you will eventually go broke.

The 8-deck games can be tough to beat with the play all approach. Even though Sabre’s EV of 1.58 units sounds good, look at the SD that goes along with it: 3.61 units per hand! That’s 36 units per hour for one SD, 72 units for two SDs. That’s a lot of money to risk for a comparatively small 1.58 units. The severe amount of risk involved would force the bets to be lower in relation to the bankroll so he will be forced to use a very small unit size (as you mentioned, maybe a $1-$10 spread). Suddenly that nice 1.58 units per hour has turned into a less attractive $1.58 hourly wage. As Don says, it’s just not enough “bang for the buck.”

Another big consideration is the hands per hour. You could easily play for an hour without seeing a single positive TC. That’s a long time to be bleeding minimum bets. If you are Wonging then it will cost you nothing to watch the negative counts. This will greatly reduce your SD and allow you to use bigger units. Also, it gives you a chance to walk away and find another table that has a more reasonable chance of heating up. Now you’re making bigger bets and playing more hands per hour. The EV for a $400 bankroll will still not be very good, but it will be better.

-Sonny-

 

[Kasi]

The 8-deck games can be tough to beat with the play all approach.... -Sonny-

Thanks for explaining it alot better than I could!