Vegas sucks

[kewljason]

So it seems our battle is not so much with the casinos as with the tourists and ploppies. 6-5 blackjack is probably just a stepping stone to one day even money blackjack, if the casinos have their way. It seems that the initial wave of 6-5 BJ wasn't received to well after a while when the general public realized what a rip off it was, so now they are tryinbg to dress it up with these party pit themes. Show a man a little clevage and he will jump off the bridge, mentality. :laugh:

I used to not care what the ploppies where doing. Now I try to educate them as much as possible on 6-5. It is difficult to do at a low limit table like a $5 table. The reduced BJ payout is "only" costing the ploppie $1.50 per blackjack and he is having so much more fun with this party theme. :laugh: I use a $50 example when trying to explain. "If you are playing $50 a hand and get a BJ, the casino is stealing $15 of your money! This seems to resonate a little more.

The one good thing is that 6-5 seems to still, for the most part be limited to low limit tables. When the $25 and $50 tables become 6-5 and players are still playing, then we are in big trouble!

 

[21forme]

The one good thing is that 6-5 seems to still, for the most part be limited to low limit tables. When the $25 and $50 tables become 6-5 and players are still playing, then we are in big trouble!

6:5 started at SD games and stayed there for a long time. Then, after the suckers eat those up, some bright person in management said, "hey, if they're dumb enough to play SD 6:5, let's see if they'll play 8D 6:5" and sure enough, it happened.

Another 6:5 note - a few years ago a few off-strip casinos tried 6:5 and it really pissed off their players and they saw a big down-turn in play. So, they games went away. This trip, I saw a 6:5 table back at one of those off-strip casinos, though it was closed when I walked by.

 

[shadroch]

A 3-2 payout on BJ makes it a fair game, but when did casinos ever intend to offer fair games? Casinos don't make their money from losing bets. They make their money by paying out less money on winning bets.
A number in Roulette should pay 38-1 but only pays 35-1. Those extra three units are the casinos profit. Same in craps, so why would anyone expect a proper payout in BJ?
It may have taken the casinos longer to catch on to their error, but a 6-5 BJ game is still better than the odds they offer on most of their games.

 

[flyingwind]

What's the lost edge when BJ pays 6-5?

 

[Mewtwo]

What's the lost edge when BJ pays 6-5?

Wizard of Odds has it at -1.39%.

 

[BJLFS]

What's the lost edge when BJ pays 6-5?

I think it's 0.56% for an eight deck shoe.

Wizard of Odds has it at -1.39%.

I've also read there is additional 1.45% HA for SD. Anyways, we're both right. :devil:

 

[21forme]

It may have taken the casinos longer to catch on to their error, but a 6-5 BJ game is still better than the odds they offer on most of their games.

"Catching on" is not the term I would use. This is going to bite them in the ass, big time. BJ became the most popular table game after Thorp's book. Prior to that it was craps. People gravitate towards games they feel they have a chance to win. If the odds are tilted too far towards the casinos, they won't play. Casinos, like restaurants, survive on repeat business. If their paying clientele (i.e., the ploppies) feel they don't ever win, they won't return, except, of course, for the most degenerate, addicted gamblers.

 

[flyingwind]

I think it's 0.56% for an eight deck shoe.

I've also read there is additional 1.45% HA for SD. Anyways, we're both right. :devil:

Really? It's only a loss of 0.56% advantage for 8D shoe?

But it's a 1.45% lost advantage on SD?


Does that mean that the 6:5 loss of advantage is even less if I play a 10D shoe?

 

[BJLFS]

Really? It's only a loss of 0.56% advantage for 8D shoe?

But it's a 1.45% lost advantage on SD?


Does that mean that the 6:5 loss of advantage is even less if I play a 10D shoe?

By inference I guess it is. lol.

 

[flyingwind]

This thread is making me sad about my upcoming Vegas trip. (tear)

I was looking forward to Vegas so much!

 

[BJLFS]

This thread is making me sad about my upcoming Vegas trip. (tear)

I was looking forward to Vegas so much!

Don't worry there are many BJ 3:2 tables. Some of them start as low as three dollars. The Fremont in downtown has $3 tables and 3:2. The Golden Nugget, across the street, has $10 BJ 3:2 tables. Now I was there in August so I don't think things have changed that fast.

 

[flyingwind]

Don't worry there are many BJ 3:2 tables. Some of them start as low as three dollars. The Fremont in downtown has $3 tables and 3:2. The Golden Nugget, across the street, has $10 BJ 3:2 tables. Now I was there in August so I don't think things have changed that fast.

How fast do you think I'll get barred for spreading from $3 to table max?

 

[BJLFS]

How fast do you think I'll get barred for spreading from $3 to table max?

They'll probably laugh first. You can almost tell a dealer that you are counting there and to a point they don't care. As long as you are playing only table minimums. But yeah if you go from $3 to $300 that's when the damage occurs to them and they might toss you.

BTW, when I was at Ceasar's even dealers were saying things like "The books say you should/shouldn't hit on that." I even saw one guy playing off a basic strategy card. So don't worry about it.

 

[Sucker]

This is going to bite them in the ass, big time.

Absolutely correct, and it's ALREADY biting them. Twenty years ago, gambling was pretty much known as a "recession-proof" industry. I'm afraid that the casinos have now become the victims of their own greed.

 

[shadroch]

Absolutely correct, and it's ALREADY biting them. Twenty years ago, gambling was pretty much known as a "recession-proof" industry. I'm afraid that the casinos have now become the victims of their own greed.

and housing was pretty much known to be a great investment. What people believe they know and what is fact is often two very different things.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

If the casinos realized how much the typical player at a BJ table was giving up with his bad play, they'd realize they have no reason to risk pissing off the whales ad the locals with 6:5. The typical vacation gambler brings an amount of money to the table that he plans on losing, and he plays until he loses, and that's that. What difference does it make if he loses it in 3 hours or 4 hours?

Well for the sake of arguing with myself, they also know that such gamblers will spread their action around several casinos, maybe they want to increase the chance of it being lost at their blackjack table before it gets lost at their neighbor's Three Card Poker table. I do notice that the bigger the venue, the more 6:5 they have, and the remote joints with no local competition haven't been getting involved with it. A bad actor like Turning Stone in NY could switch to 6:5 any time they wanted to but they haven't.

 

[aslan]

If the casinos realized how much the typical player at a BJ table was giving up with his bad play, they'd realize they have no reason to risk pissing off the whales ad the locals with 6:5. The typical vacation gambler brings an amount of money to the table that he plans on losing, and he plays until he loses, and that's that. What difference does it make if he loses it in 3 hours or 4 hours?

Well for the sake of arguing with myself, they also know that such gamblers will spread their action around several casinos, maybe they want to increase the chance of it being lost at their blackjack table before it gets lost at their neighbor's Three Card Poker table. I do notice that the bigger the venue, the more 6:5 they have, and the remote joints with no local competition haven't been getting involved with it. A bad actor like Turning Stone in NY could switch to 6:5 any time they wanted to but they haven't.

It takes a long time for them to realize that they are robbing a dwindling customer base, because those 6:5 games do drive many customers away, even though there are still a lot of fools playing them. If they are successful in using female dealers in scant attire as their draw, the 6:5 won't matter much for that type player, but the serious player will still go elsewhere. As a rule, I don't think the 6:5 crowd are your big betters. I could be wrong, but that's what I have been seeing.

 

[StudiodeKadent]

My theory is that when economic times get rough for the casinos, they turn to their accountants who advise them to cut expenses (lay off employees, offer fewer customer perks, etc.) and increase revenues (tighten up the rules to squeeze out a few more dollars from their die-hard customers). Accountants have a tendency to ignore the marketing and public relations effects of some of their cost cutting/revenue enhancing measures. This is dumb, because they are making more money on a shrinking customer base, shrinking because of the very practices and rules they put in place to make more money.

Aslan is correct, as is his post about 6:5 games not attracting big bettors. It tends to attract males, often on the younger side, probably due to the proximity to Party Pits. Also, the "single deck" element might make the game attractive to some of the more casual fans of poker (again, often young males).

This demographic often does not gamble heavily; they tend to be more out on the "party" and "getting laid" etc. scenes rather than the "hot cocktail waitresses are nice but having the dealer stand on soft 17 is more important to me" crowd.

The measures that the industry are taking to squeeze out money are disproportionately aimed at the low-betting market and are myopic in nature (i.e. they will cause a longterm blowback that is potentially worse than the current economic pain, for the casinos).

The focus on short-term accounting fixes rather than long-term profitability is unfortunate but it is possibly a side-effect of the uncertain business climate; long-range uncertainty means a business will focus on short-term to minimize uncertainty. Casinos themselves will suffer in the long run.

If it helps, I never found it too difficult to get liberal rules BJ games at an MGM property... worst was finding Pit 17 at the MGM Grand.

 

[aslan]

Aslan is correct, as is his post about 6:5 games not attracting big bettors. It tends to attract males, often on the younger side, probably due to the proximity to Party Pits. Also, the "single deck" element might make the game attractive to some of the more casual fans of poker (again, often young males).

This demographic often does not gamble heavily; they tend to be more out on the "party" and "getting laid" etc. scenes rather than the "hot cocktail waitresses are nice but having the dealer stand on soft 17 is more important to me" crowd.

The measures that the industry are taking to squeeze out money are disproportionately aimed at the low-betting market and are myopic in nature (i.e. they will cause a longterm blowback that is potentially worse than the current economic pain, for the casinos).

The focus on short-term accounting fixes rather than long-term profitability is unfortunate but it is possibly a side-effect of the uncertain business climate; long-range uncertainty means a business will focus on short-term to minimize uncertainty. Casinos themselves will suffer in the long run.

If it helps, I never found it too difficult to get liberal rules BJ games at an MGM property... worst was finding Pit 17 at the MGM Grand.

Accountants (I be one) seldom have the moxie and feel of the public pulse required to launch a successful business, but are always there to administer the final death blow when all the business needs is a little TLC and sticking to the principles that made it successful in the first place.

 

[StudiodeKadent]

Accountants (I be one) seldom have the moxie and feel of the public pulse required to launch a successful business, but are always there to administer the final death blow when all the business needs is a little TLC and sticking to the principles that made it successful in the first place.

I'd agree to an extent. Accountancy is of course indispensible to a business; but one should not pretend accountancy and entrepreneurship are the same things. There are many dangers inherent in overmathematicizing complex and nondeterminative systems (like an economy), such as constructivist rationalism, "risk modelling" and the like.

And, unfortunately, it seems our current economy has become so dominated by bureaucratic, risk-averse corporations that love mathematical formulations and accountancy... Schumpeter's Nightmare.

EDIT: Oh, who am I kidding? It was worse in the 50's. Still, its a danger that needs to be watched for.