What exactly do you mean by moving target ? That nowadays the "cat and mouse game" of Card Counting requires ever more skill at being adroit, mobile, and vigilant, etc ?
What I mean is that you can't judge a casino by a few experiences there. They are constantly changing. Case in point, Borgata in AC has a policy of less pen when big money is playing. Their regular pen is supposed to be about two decks plus a few cards, or 65%, yet I have seen it to be anywhere from 60% to 85%, I'm not exaggerating, on the same shift. I'm guessing that some dealers may be counters themselves and sympathetic to counters because of it. Others seem to be wise enough to be counters themselves, yet try to stick it to any counters at the table by ridiculous pen. Also, some may be looking to encourage tips. I agree that more often than not, pen is shift or casino dependent, yet I am always on the lookout for particular dealers where the pen is consistently good.
Also, the rules change. I was steered to the Hilton in Vegas, because they had a good DD game. During the course of play, I tried to double down on a split hand, which was refused. The pb came over and explained no dd after splitting at the Hilton. I asked, where's the sign? He said there was none; just no dd after splitting at the Hilton. He went on to say that the Hilton used to have a decent game, but that management now did not believe in gambling. Honest, he did. He advised me to try the Riviera across the street for a better game. Honest he did. Which I did, and liked it. lol
Card Counters get "trespassed" under two circumstances, firstly returning to play BJ after they were 86'd. Secondly, Card Counters who have attempted to play BJ at high stakes. Often, where the barring morphs into a "trespassing" is at the discretion of the Casino Shift Manager. Each casino has its own "choke point" as to what level of play makes them "sweat" Trespassing at Harrah's Properties are patricularly commonplace. .......... It grows out of our system of Juris Prudence that was spawned by British "Common Law" wherein it has existed for centuries as the ancient "InnKeeper's Law" .......... Re: hotel/casinos, trespassing, (without the commission of a crime), generally results in a night in jail and a fine being levied for the misdemeanor conviction...........
I guess what you're saying is that any retailer anywhere can trespass you without reason or for any reason and it's legal. Therefore, it does not have to be about counting at all. I don't know the law myself, but I do know that a certain court case in AC said you can't be barred from play for counting in AC casinos. In Vegas the court ruled that it was legal, but that a casino could refuse service to anyone without cause. In AC, the common occurrence is to get half-shoe-ed if they determine you are counting. In Vegas, the practice varies. At the Bellagio, they may tell you you can't play. If you persist, the pb will instruct the dealer to deal around you. Other shops may bar you from the premises. Different strokes for different folks
Shoe games, especially with the onerous H17 rule, needs to have less than 25% cut off in order to be even barely mediocre - meaning that (with skilled play coupled with a big bankroll and a wide bet spread), can be somewhat advantageous.
You sound like zg. I think Snyder might say 70%, but I could be wrong.