fsscout said:
I live in Las Vegas and have been counting cards for years and I consistantly win. I am a low stakes player, my max bet is $40. I realize that many "so called" experts say 3rd base is the best place to play because it allows you to see more cards and thus you can adjust your play accordingly. I prefer first base. My reasoning is that when the count is in my favor I have a better chance of getting good cards, especially when there are a lot of aces left, than sitting at 3rd base when several cards are dealt out and the count may significantly change before you get your first card and especially your second card.
Also everybody is watching the play of the guy at 3rd base and thus he is blamed when the cards don't fall just right. The guy at first base doesn't usually get this kind of crap from the other players. Of course these players are idiots. I don't blame anyone when I lose a hand. In the long run when there is a bad player at 3rd base his bad play helps you as often as it hurts you. We only remember the times when it hurts you. If you are a good counter then you know that there are a few times when you shouldn't
make the obvious basic strategy play. So expect the heat from the other players when you make those plays and they lose.
If you are thin skinned and don't like the comments from the knuckleheaded majority then sit as close to 1st base as possible. Real experts know that it doesn't really matter where you sit if you truly know how to count cards.
Sorry, but you are guilty of bad reasoning.
When the round begins, you're just as likely to get the good cards sitting at third as you are at first. If the running count is +10, there are ten extra high cards distributed throughout the whole remaining pack. Those high cards could be anywhere, they could give first base a 20 or BJ, the dealer a 20 or BJ, third base a 20 or BJ, or 20's and BJ for all. Or 20 and BJ for none as they are all behind the cut card, never to be seen.
There are benefits to sitting at first base, I am not arguing that there are not reasons to sit there. However, the reason you mentioned is certainly not one of them. The count "changing" by the time the dealer gets to the last spot does nothing to the probabilities of getting high cards when you placed your bet. Besides, there are times the count will climb further, would you rather be the benefit of that at third base, or eat the little cards at first? It's a wash, no spot gets better cards than the others.
I will always go for third base at a full table at a deeply dealt double deck game, the index plays allowed, especially on the last round have saved me countless bets. It has also gotten me flak from ploppies for taking hits that are considered "unorthodox," but I really don't care. I just give a dopey smile and say "should I not have done that?" when I cause the table to lose and am questioned.